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  • What’s better: Knowing the price of something or knowing with perfect information how much something should cost?


  • It's a trick question.

    <a href='#post_comment_1'>引っ掛け問題です。

  • Suppose there are two farmers Al Trewis and Moe Cashferme. Each of them has 500 acres of land

    <a href='#post_comment_2'>Al TrewisとMoe Cashferme.<i class="icon-star"></i> それぞれが500エーカーの土地を持っているとします。

  • that could grow either corn or soybeans. Suppose I ask what their plans are. Both of

    とうもろこしか大豆のどちらかを 栽培できるようにするために彼らの計画を聞いてみましょうどちらも

  • them text back, “I don’t know.” Now suppose we borrowed a crystal ball from

    "知らない "というメールが返ってきたクリスタルボールを借りたとしましょう

  • some genie and we know everything. Among the things the crystal ball can tell us are that


  • Brazil has had a terrible summer with drought then late floods that wiped out 40% of their

    ブラジルでは夏に干ばつに見舞われた後、後半に洪水が発生し、<a href='#post_comment_3'>ブラジルの40%が全滅しました。

  • soybean crop. It also tells us that new uses for soybean curd have pushed up consumer demand for


  • soy paste all over Asia. Meanwhile, corn crop yields have hit record highs all over the world and,


  • At the same time, several countries ended their corn-based ethanol programs leading to an extraordinary corn surplus.

    同時に、いくつかの国が<a href='#post_comment_4'>トウモロコシベースのエタノール<i class="icon-star"></i>プログラムを終了し、トウモロコシの異常な余剰につながった。

  • Our first farmer, Al, has to decide what to


  • plant. Al never wanted anything for himself. All he cares about was doing what’s best


  • for all of humanity. He does research trying to decide which crop would be better for humanity

    人類のために彼は研究をしています どの作物が人類にとって良いのかを 決めるために

  • as a whole, but it’s hard for Al to determine what information is most relevant because

    しかし、アルはどの情報が最も関連しているかを 判断するのが難しいのです

  • he doesn’t trust price information and the knowledge that he needs is too dispersed, too


  • specific, and too hard to learn. Now Al knows a lotbut still not enough.


  • He’s stuck at, “I don’t know.” So he makes a guess, plants corn. Al’s put

    彼は "わからない "で行き詰っている。だから彼は推測して、トウモロコシを植えた。アルは

  • a tremendous amount of time and resources into his research instead of focusing on what


  • he’s good atrunning a farm. As a result, he doesn’t get much corn planted, has a

    彼が得意としているのは 農場を経営することですその結果、彼はトウモロコシをあまり植えることができません。

  • hard time selling the corn he does produce. He has to sell for very little and he ends up


  • bankrupt. Let’s look at Moe’s experience.


  • Since he cares only about profits, he focuses on prices. In early February, the price of corn futuresfalls sharply.

    利益ばかりを気にしているので、価格を重視している。2月上旬、<a href = "#post_comment_5'>コーン先物<i class="icon-star"></i>の価格が急落。

  • But soy futures indicate that prices for soy delivered in August should


  • be excellent. Why did this happen? Moe has no idea and he


  • couldn’t possibly care less. Moe sells a large soy futures contract to lock in the


  • high price and plants soy on every square inch of land that he owns. It’s a selfish


  • bet, one thatll make Moe a lot of money. Instead of trying to be an expert in all the


  • disparate subjects he’d need to master to have perfect information about the marketplace,


  • he just focused time and resources on running his farm. And the only other information he


  • used was prices. So he produced a lot of soybeans and did well for himself.


  • Which of the two did the right thing, the better thing for society? What would the genie


  • with the crystal ball have told us? The genie would have looked at the glut of corn and


  • the shortage of soy that made it so valuable and told us what people need is more soy.


  • But of course, there’s no such thing as genies in the real world. Information is too


  • dispersed, too complicated, to solve the "IDK" problem through research. There's just too

    分散していて、複雑すぎて、<a href='#post_comment_6'>"IDK"<i class="icon-star"></i>の問題を研究で解決するには、<a href='#post_comment_6'>"IDK"<i class="icon-star"></i>の問題を研究で解決するには。ただ、あまりにも

  • much to know. Fortunately, farmers don’t need a crystal

    多くのことを知る必要があります。幸いなことに 農家はクリスタルを必要としません

  • ball because prices do exactly what we were hoping that the genie would do. Farmers don’t


  • need to know why a price is high or low, and in fact no single person could possibly explain


  • it fully. But by growing the crop that produces the greater profit, farmers can produce the


  • crop that solves the shortage, meets the demand, and satisfies the requirements of innovation.


  • It’s impossible to attain perfect information about the entire marketplace, which is changing


  • all the time. Prices are a way of condensing all that information into one easily understood


  • signal. Almost like magic.


What’s better: Knowing the price of something or knowing with perfect information how much something should cost?


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    Eating に公開 2015 年 01 月 25 日