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  • Queen Lion is looking to make the elections in her animal kingdom more fair. Currently

  • she divides her citizens into ranges each of which selects one representative to go

  • to the jungle council which makes laws for the kingdom.

  • But her citizens are unhappy, and it's easy to see why: the council is full of monkeys.

  • Of course some of her citizens are monkeys, but not all of them. This council doesn't

  • fairly represent her kingdom.

  • Queen lion visits one of the ranges to find out what's wrong and how to fix it.

  • In this range there five monkeys, four tigers, three owls, two lynx and one buffalo. One

  • of each runs for representative and all citizens vote for their own species.

  • The election rule is that the candidate with the most votes wins, which is the monkey.

  • But it's a pretty unsatisfying result considering that 2/3rds of citizens in this range *aren't*

  • monkeys and wouldn't vote for monkeys.

  • This is the same across all the ranges of the kingdom, the monkeys have more votes than

  • anybody else, so they win all the elections, even though they are a minority of the total

  • population. Closer inspection reveals that the independent advisors hired to draw the

  • range boundaries in the first place weren't as independent as they first appeared.

  • The result is unhappy citizens who don't trust the jungle council to make the fairest laws

  • for all, quite rightly.

  • Now Queen lion wants to maximize the number of citizens happy with the election results.

  • One way to do that is to abolish the ranges and use a proportional system... ...But her

  • citizens *want* local representatives.

  • So Queen lion needs a system that both make her citizens happier by having a more representative

  • council while keeping local elections in place.

  • After doing a little research she finds out how: Single Transferable Vote.

  • The big change with STV is that ranges send more than one representative, which may seem

  • weird, but queen lion decides to test it out: she takes three ranges which used to each

  • send one representative and combines them into one bigger range that will send three.

  • On election day citizens go to the polls and the results in this new range are just the

  • same as they were in the old ranges: 34% for Monkey, 33% for Owl and 33% for Lynx.

  • But this isn't most votes wins: with STV to figure out the winners take the total votes

  • and divide by the number of representatives needed, in this case 3 which gives 33% as

  • the amount a candidates needs to win.

  • So *all three* candidates go to the council -- which accurately represents the citizens

  • in the range.

  • Whereas under the old system each range would have sent a monkey. Leaving 2/3rd of the citizens

  • without representation. A bigger range with more representatives allows the range to be

  • more proportional.

  • This test turned out well, but it was also as simple as could be -- now Queen Lion wants

  • to see what happens in a race where not everyone is a winner.

  • The next big range she tests has five candidates running for office: Gorilla, Tasier, Monkey,

  • Tiger, and Lynx, three of which can be representatives.

  • Election day comes and goes, and here are the results of citizens first choices:

  • Tasier gets 5% Gorilla gets 28%

  • Monkey gets 33% Tiger gets 21%

  • Lynx gets 13%

  • As before, a candidate needs 33% to win. Monkey has that as so is immediately selected as

  • one of the three representatives.

  • But no one else reached the winning 33% so how are the other two representatives selected?

  • Step one: get rid of the biggest loser. Sorry tasier -- you really had no chance at all.

  • Now, when the citizens voted, they could have just put an X next to the candidate they liked

  • most but with STV they can also rank their favorite candidates. This is important because

  • it shows how the election would have turned out if one of the candidates hadn't run.

  • Tiny and Worried Tasiers would have voted for the big calm gorilla without tasier in

  • the race. So if their candidate can't win, they want their votes to go to Gorilla instead.

  • This pushes gorilla up to 33% and he become the next representative.

  • Ranking allows citizens to support their favorite candidate without worry -- there's no point

  • in strategizing about how everyone else is going to vote. The system works to maximize

  • voter happiness with the result.

  • Back to the range: there's still one representative to select, so the next biggest loser is Lynx.

  • His voters don't like simians, but they do think tiger's interests are similar to theirs

  • and so if Lynx can't win they want him to have their votes. Tiger gets reaches 33% and

  • becomes the third and final representative.

  • The election result looks pretty good especially considering citizens first *and* second choices.

  • Now more citizens have a local representative they can feel comfortable approaching, whereas

  • using the old system, everybody gets a monkey.

  • Lastly queen lion wants know what happens in a range with just two political parties.

  • Under the most-votes-wins systems, multiple candidates from the same party would be a

  • disaster: they'd split their voters and hand the win to their opposition.

  • Queen lion makes one last test range with 2/3rd tigers and 1/3 gorillas that as before,

  • needs three representatives.

  • Because with STV citizens rank their candidates there can be more than one candidate running

  • at the same time without any problems.

  • The tigers run two candidates as do the gorillas.

  • White tiger becomes the first representative, but what happens next? While tiger seems to

  • be the biggest loser, it's also obvious that he would have gotten way more votes if white

  • tiger wasn't in the race. If a candidate has more votes than they need, like white tiger

  • does, the first step is to give the extra votes to their second choice. This gets tiger

  • to 33% and he becomes the next representative.

  • If that seems strange, there are two things to consider:

  • 1) If instead the extra votes were ignored, and tiger eliminated then the gorillas would

  • get the remaining two wins, which would obviously not be represent the range.

  • 2) Ignoring these 'extra' votes is punishing citizens who backed the popular candidate,

  • which makes voters start thinking about how everyone else will vote, rather than what

  • they really want. If a candidate gets extra votes in the first place it also means that

  • those who voted for him are a big section of the population and thus fairly should get

  • more representation.

  • Right: after the extra votes go to tiger, the election finishes as before: Silverback

  • came in last, is eliminated and his voters' second choice is the younger candidate so

  • gorilla gets in. And the results are fair.

  • Queen Lion has now seen STV work. Whether a range has one party or lots the process

  • is still the same:

  • 1. Citizens rank their favorite candidates. 2. Any candidate above the threshold wins

  • immediately, 3. 'Extra' votes go to their next choice.

  • 4. If no winner, last place is eliminated, and the votes to go their next choice.

  • 5. Repeat until all the winners are found.

  • This whole this process is designed to maximize the number of citizens who are happy with

  • the result.

  • This process gives STV has many advantages over the old, most-votes-wins system:

  • 1. Citizens can honestly vote for their favorite candidate without worrying about what everyone

  • else is going to do. 2. It's more proportional. So monkeying with

  • the borders matters less. 3. Almost all citizens will have a local representative

  • they actually voted for.

  • In the end Queen lion decides to switch the council's elections to Single Transferable

  • Vote to make a better jungle council for all.

Queen Lion is looking to make the elections in her animal kingdom more fair. Currently

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どうぶつ王国の政治。シングル譲渡可能な投票 (Politics in the Animal Kingdom: Single Transferable Vote)

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    稲葉白兎 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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