It's from Jeff Oyster.

ジェフ・オイスターからだ。

As a Berkshire and Tesla shareholder, I would like to hear your thoughts on the potential financial effects to GEICO, assuming Elon Musk delivers on his fully autonomous driving goal.

バークシャーおよびテスラの株主として、イーロン・マスクが完全自律走行という目標を達成したと仮定した場合のGEICOへの潜在的な財務的影響について、あなたの考えを聞きたい。

On Tesla's most recent earnings call, Elon said, if you've got at scale a statistically significant amount of data that shows conclusively that the autonomous car has, let's say, half the accident rate of a human-driven car, I think that's difficult to ignore.

テスラの直近の決算説明会でイーロンは、「自律走行車の事故率が、例えば人間が運転する車の半分であることを決定的に示す、統計的に有意な規模のデータがあれば、それを無視することは難しいと思う」と述べた。

Assuming Elon succeeds in reducing accidents by 50% versus human drivers, wouldn't auto insurance rates fall to reflect the reduced underwriting risk, thereby adversely impacting GEICO's revenues and float, and perhaps margins, too?

イーロンが人間のドライバーに比べて事故を50％減らすことに成功したと仮定すると、自動車保険料は引き受けリスクの減少を反映して下がり、それによってGEICOの収入と浮動株、そしておそらく利ざやにも悪影響を及ぼすのではないだろうか？

Well, yeah, if, well, let's just take the extreme example.

まあ、そうだね、もしそうなら、まあ、極端な例を挙げてみよう。

Let's say there are only gonna be three accidents, and the United States next year, for some crazy reason that anything that reduces accidents is going to reduce costs, but that's been harder to do than people have done before, but obviously, if it really happens, the figures will show it, and our data will show it, and prices will come down.

仮に事故が3件しか起こらなかったとしよう。来年、アメリカでは、事故を減らすことがコスト削減につながるというおかしな理由もあるが、それを実行するのはこれまでの人たちよりも難しい。しかし、本当にそうなれば、数字がそれを示し、我々のデータがそれを示し、価格が下がるのは明らかだ。

I wouldn't, there've been a lot of people talk about doing that in the past.

過去にそういう話をした人はたくさんいる。

I mean, General Motors used to be very big in the insurance business, and when Uber first started, they used some firm, which now is, I think Agito confirmed, they're close to bankruptcy now, aren't they, because of taking things out at the wrong prices?

つまり、ゼネラルモーターズはかつて保険事業で非常に大きな存在でした。Uberが最初にスタートしたとき、彼らはどこかの会社を使っていましたが、今はアギトが確認したと思いますが、彼らは倒産に近い状態ですよね？

Is that true?

それは本当ですか？

Yep, yep, yep.

うん、うん、うん。

Yeah, yeah.

ああ、そうだ。

Insurance always looks easier than it is, and it's so much fun, because you get the money at the start.

保険はいつも実際より簡単そうに見えるし、とても楽しい。

And then you find out whether you've done something stupid later on, but it's a very tempting business when somebody hands you money, and you hand them a little piece of paper, but really knowing whether you're, I mean, if accidents get reduced 50%, it's gonna be good for society, and it's gonna be bad for insurance companies' volume, but good for society is what we're looking for so far.

もし事故が50％減れば、社会にとっては良いことであり、保険会社にとっては悪いことだが、社会にとっては良いことなのだ。

You might find kind of interesting, I mean, the number of people killed per 100 million passenger miles driven, I think it actually, when I was young, it was like 15, but even post-World War II, it only fell to like seven or thereabouts, and Ralph Nader probably has done more for the American consumer than just about anybody in history, because that seven or six has now come down to under two, and I don't think it would have come down that way without him.

ラルフ・ネーダーはおそらく、歴史上の誰よりもアメリカの消費者のために尽くしてきたと思います。

There have been some kind of fluke figures of what people did during the pandemic, which are quite interesting, because they didn't drive, immediately they didn't drive as many miles, but they drove more dangerously, didn't they?

パンデミック（世界的大流行）の間に人々が何をしたかという、ある種の偶然の数字があるのだが、これは非常に興味深い。

Is that right, Ajit?

そうなのか、アジット？

Yeah, yeah, so the point I wanna make in terms of Tesla and the fact that they feel that because of their technology, the number of accidents do come down, and that is certainly provable, but I think what needs to be factored in as well is the repair cost of each one of these accidents has skyrocketed, so if you multiply the number of accidents times the cost of each accident, I'm not sure that total number has come down as much as Tesla would like us to believe.

そうそう、テスラに関して私が言いたいのは、彼らの技術のおかげで事故の数が減ったという事実です。それは確かに証明できることですが、同時に考慮しなければならないのは、事故が起こるたびに修理費が高騰しているということです。

Tesla has been toying with the idea of writing insurance directly or indirectly, and so far, it hasn't really sort of been much of a success.

テスラは保険を直接または間接的に契約するというアイデアを試みているが、今のところ、あまり成功していない。

Time will tell, but I think automation just shifts a lot of the expense from the operator to the equipment provider.

時間が経てばわかることだが、自動化はオペレーターから機器プロバイダーに多くの費用をシフトするだけだと思う。