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F-150, Silverado, Sierra, Ram, All American, big, capable,
and extremely popular.
These are not only some of the best selling trucks in
America, there are also some of the best selling vehicles
of any kind in the country.
Pickup trucks are perhaps one of Detroit's last strongholds
in the US car market.
In 2023, American brands sold nearly 2.4 million pickup
trucks, making up more than 15% of all new car sales.
But in one segment, Japanese Toyota outshines American
names. In fact, it outsells all of its rivals combined.
British grown up with it, and you kind of smile when you see
it in a.
Country obsessed with ever larger vehicles.
Toyota never stopped betting there would be a buyer who
preferred a smaller truck that would do what they
needed. Through the years, it has also earned a strong
reputation in desert racing and become a favorite of off
roaders and Overlanders.
That's just world domination.
That's what we're going in. I'm kidding.
Uh, in all, seriously, uh, we consider ourselves very
privileged, and we don't we don't take it lightly that the
success that we've had within the segment, that's largely
due to the loyalty that we had from our customer base.
Pickup trucks are not only popular, but profitable and
are thus a tantalizing opportunity for cash hungry EV
startups. Legacy automakers, especially the Detroit Three,
have pushed more aggressively into smaller trucks as foreign
automakers take the lead in other segments.
Industry forecasters expect there will soon be twice as
many truck models competing for the same share of buyers.
So how did Toyota win this market and is it at risk of
losing its lead?
There are four main pickup size segments compact midsize,
full size, and Heavy Duty and Detroit rules, nearly all of
them. The biggest sellers are the full size segment.
Ford, GM and Stellantis dominate, but Toyota is king
of the midsize.
The Tacoma is the ninth best selling vehicle in the US,
holding nearly four times the share of its next biggest
competitor. When asking industry insiders, even people
at Toyota, what accounts for Tacoma's success?
One word keeps popping up consistency.
We got into this segment listening to truck buyers,
what they wanted, and we kept giving it to them.
It's been incredibly consistent for a long, long
time.
Back when a lot of the competition left the market,
stayed the course, and I think we built a lot of
reputational rapport with our with our customers.
Toyota built its first truck, the G1, in 1935.
It began importing trucks to the US in the 1960s, and,
along with Japanese brands like Datsun and Nissan, carved
a popular niche in the compact segment.
Smaller trucks had been around before that.
As early as the mid 19 tens, Americans were buying Ford
Model T roadsters or Chassis and putting aftermarket truck
beds on the back.
The modifications popularity led Ford to introduce an
official factory built version of the Roadster pickup
in 1925.
Several more followed.
A lot of these early trucks would have qualified as
compact pickups, but American trucks grew over time as
vehicles tend to in response to customer demands, and by
the latter half of the 20th century, importers looking to
gain a foothold in the US saw small pickups as a way in, and
we found that to be a stronghold for us because a
lot of people didn't want either couldn't afford or
didn't want that big of a truck, especially depending on
where you lived, like a California, you know, you have
smaller parking garages.
At that time, American firms did somewhat serve the niche.
The Chevrolet El Camino and Ford Ranchero could be
considered examples, though.
They were really cars with beds on them.
It is telling that when some of these Japanese imports took
off in the 1970s, the main competitors developed by
American companies were rebadged versions of Japanese
trucks. Homegrown American rivals followed.
The original Ford Ranger and Chevrolet S-10 came out in
1983. Dodge followed in 1986 with the Dakota, and our
competitors throughout time have jumped in and out of the
segment. Our market share, um, I think over the last ten
years, our average share has been almost 43%, 43% of a
market share of anything.
That's pretty unbelievable.
Why? Because we were always there and we don't jump in and
out of things because we're there and consistently giving
the consumer what they're asking for.
Even today, there are more choices.
But no line is comprehensive.
As Tacoma, it's the only one you can buy with a long bed,
only one of two that comes with two doors.
Also one of only two that comes with a manual
transmission.
Toyota's really the only one that still serving the entire
market.
So consistency is one ingredient.
But the other bit of genius is recognizing that there is a
large market of buyers who would love to have some of
what a pickup offers, but don't need all of it.
I think that a mid-size truck shopper is in a very different
mindset than a full size truck shopper.
If you are really concerned with hauling a heavy payload,
if you are really concerned with towing a high figure,
then you're going to be looking at a full size trucks.
There's no point in building the midsize truck with the
highest towing rating.
Those people are just going to buy a full size truck
anyway. Midsize truck shoppers are trying to solve a
very practical problem.
And when you add Toyota quality, the sort of
reputation they have for long term reliability to, you know,
a comfortable truck that's good on the road that meets
that need. It's just really hard to beat.
The other thing that served Toyota well was its stellar
reputation for SR quality, durability and reliability.
Consumer reports places Toyota at number two on its
list of most reliable brands.
Number one Lexus, which is also owned by Toyota, another
major analytics company, J.D.
power, has the brand up top as well.
Toyota's reputation for SRX shows up in the used
marketplace. Several models are among the best at holding
their value, topped by Tacoma second on the list.
We sort of staked our reputation to that, and that's
foundational to what is so important to the Tacoma is the
fact that when we provide those type of qualities, you
know, you get the benefits of residual value, you get the
benefits of of repeat customers.
And I'll say lifelong customers, if you will.
Dependability is not the only strength supporters cite.
Toyota has been known for making boring cars.
Even its chairman and former CEO Akio Toyoda has said so.
Tacoma, though, might be a rare exception.
A joke about a lot of SUVs and more than a few pickups is
that the only hills they will ever climb are the speed bumps
in the shopping mall parking lot.
But 42% of Tacoma owners say they take their trucks off.
Road at least once a month.
Active outdoor adventure.
We heard that over and over and over again.
The Japanese automaker has a long history with off road
racing, and is especially known for its relationship
with Ivan Ironman Stewart, the newest Tacoma, takes
design cues from this racing heritage.
Calty, Toyota's US design office, which develops
products for the American market, said it wanted the
latest Tacoma to be a badass adventure truck.
We always want to make sure it's a it's a tough, rugged
truck.
The brand has leveraged this racing heritage into its
products in other ways.
A lot of automakers have high performance lines or in-house
tuning shops. Bmw has M division, Mercedes AMG,
Hyundai N line.
Ford has performance.
Toyota's first such line in America was TRD Toyota Racing
Development, and for a long time it was somewhat unusual
in that it primarily focused on off road racing.
A few of the versions of Tacoma that are available and
that have been for quite some time, are TRD badged at the
same time when more than 40% of your customers are off
roaders, close to 60% are not.
Tacoma's eight trim levels prove the point.
Several are off road focused, but there is also a base
model. The SR5 engineer Sheldon Brown calls the jack
of all trades a more on road focused TRD sport version and
the higher end limited.
Historically, we haven't sold a lot of those trucks, and
maybe that was because, you know, we really didn't do
enough to differentiate it. So we really tried to make
that sort of, I'll say, the gentleman's off roader, for
lack of a better word, but more of the amenities that you
would get in a full size truck.
They haven't chased refinement as much, and they haven't
chased technology as much.
And and it's worked out in two areas.
One is that the consistency of the brand.
And the other thing is it's more in the scope of pickup
trucks and where you're going to spend money.
It's a little bit more entry level truck versus a full size
truck and truck buyers up until the last couple of years
were hesitant on technology, and truck buyers weren't
necessarily demanding cameras.
Now they are. But that wasn't the case 6 or 7 years ago.
Some features found on Tacoma's today, such as crawl
control, which helps navigate dicey off road driving, were a
lot cruder in earlier versions when compared with
competitors like the Ford Ranger.
Later iterations were polished up in response to the
threat.
Tacoma doesn't necessarily lead by having the latest and
most perfect forms of every piece of technology.
Tacoma leads by being capable, by being reliable, by
being what its owners know it to be, and by making sure that
it still has that connection.
But Toyota no longer has the pool to itself.
Even though sales have risen in raw numbers, share has
declined simply because there are more trucks in the space.
The interesting part about the midsize segment is, as we've
seen the new entries come in, you know, market share has
changed because of, you know, the total number of entries in
there, but actual absolute value in terms of numbers has
continued to grow because that market has just expanded.
Where I look at the segment and I wonder a bit about what
we think is happening in the future, is, is I'm not sure
how much more growth there is.
The pickup truck segments share of the new car market
has historically peaked at about 20%.
To really go above that and sustain that would not
necessarily impossible, but it would be quite surprising.
I think at the end of the day, while pickup trucks are
attractive and people like them, they have an open bed.
And just honestly, not everybody wants an open bed.
It's unclear how long Toyota can maintain its dominance in
this segment. It seems to have held off competition from
the Chevrolet Colorado, which has lost market share since
2019. But the Colorado did win Motortrend's truck of the
year award for 2024.
Of course, the newest generation Tacoma was not yet
available at the time.
Are they going to stay around? I mean, that's a
question. If they're going to stay around, they they were in
before, then they left and now they're back in and maybe
they'll leave again. I think the consumers are like, I
don't know if I can really trust that the other brands
are actually going to stay in the segment.
They've already left me once.
Then there is, of course, the big question on everyone's
mind what do you.
Do with electrification?
Toyota just created a hybrid Tacoma and that will get them
through to a certain point. But you know, the new EPA
tailpipe regulations making about 56% of its lineup
electric, and nobody has built a convincing electric
truck that sells in large numbers.
Yet plenty are trying.
Ev startup Rivian makes nothing but SUVs and pickup
trucks. Tesla has begun selling the Cybertruck.
Vw plans to resurrect the Scout brand, entirely focused
on electric SUVs and pickup trucks.
Legacy players without much of a presence in trucks have
been trying to find a path of least resistance.
Hyundai started selling a compact unibody pickup called
the Santa Cruz not an EV, but the Korean automaker, along
with sister brand Kia, is betting big on electric
vehicles. Not to be outdone, Ford released a compact pickup
called the Maverick, which comes with a hybrid powertrain
at any trim level.
Gm is planning a compact as well.
It remains to be seen if any of these can compete in a big
way with the Tacoma.
That's a lot of competition for a segment that probably
doesn't have a lot of growth.
So we. Really as those players come in, I think over
time it's a matter of eating somebody else's share, which
it always is to some degree or another.
It's heating up. It's getting more competitive.
Ford really proved a point with the Maverick, and I think
you may see them make more of an effort next time around.