Bad news about prices in the grocery store.

ARCHIVE: "食料品店の価格に関する悪いニュース"

Historically high inflation.

ARCHIVE: 「...歴史的に高いインフレ率」。

In 2022, much of the world experienced a period of uncommonly high inflation, with the U.S., U.K. and Eurozone all peaking at around 10%, meaning that prices on average were a full 10% higher than one year before.

2022年、世界の大半の国々がこのような状況に見舞われた。

Though that's probably not a surprise to anyone watching this.

稀に見る高インフレの時期である。米国、英国

It's thankfully now closer to the normal range, if still a bit high.

とユーロ圏はいずれも10％前後でピークを迎える。

But infuriatingly, since this chart just shows a rate of change, that doesn't mean that prices are down.

平均価格

Just that they've stopped climbing as fast.

は1年前より10%も増加した。

And that really sucks.

それは驚くべきことではないだろうけれど

Consumers are stressed, businesses are suffering and governments are scrambling.

これをご覧の皆さん。今はありがたいことに

But at the same time, if you were to, I don't know, find yourself reading and watching a ton of inflation-related content, you'll also keep hearing this.

まだ少し高いものの、通常の範囲に近い。

A little inflation is a good thing.

しかし、腹立たしいことに、このグラフは変化率を示しているだけなので...。

A little inflation is a good thing.

だからといって、価格が下がっているわけではない。

A little inflation now would be a good thing.

ただ、それほど速く登らなくなっただけだ。

Everybody wants a little inflation.

そしてそれは本当に最悪だ。

Why?

消費者はストレスを感じ、企業は苦しんでいる、

If rising prices hurt seemingly everyone, why can't they just stay the same?

各国政府は躍起になっている。

Why can't inflation be zero?

しかし同時に、もしあなたがそうするとしたら、

The first reason inflation can't stay at zero is because governments and their central banks don't want it to.

どうだろう。

Lots of countries actively pursue what is called an inflation target.

そして、インフレ関連のコンテンツを大量に見る......。

In the U.S. right now, it's about 2%.

また、こうも言われるだろう：

That's the number that's used by most central banks across the world.

ARCHIVE: "多少のインフレは良いこと？"

But the truth of it is, that's a pretty arbitrary number.

「多少のインフレはいいことだ。

The goal is what economists consider a virtuous cycle.

ARCHIVE: "今少しインフレになればいいことだ"

Here's what that looks like.

ARCHIVE: "誰もが小さなインフレを望んでいる"なぜ？

In times when prices are generally rising, people tend to expect them to rise further.

物価が上昇することで、一見誰もが打撃を受ける、

And that actually encourages people to spend money now, on big durable purchases like cars or appliances, in order to avoid having to pay more for the same thing later.

なぜそのままではいけないのか？

And the stuff we need to buy no matter what, goods like food or clothing, gets more expensive too, which requires us to spend more.

なぜインフレ率がゼロにならないのか？

Either way, companies make more money, which means more people have jobs and more of their own money to spend.

インフレ率がゼロにとどまらない第一の理由

And that means more demand and therefore higher prices.

それは、各国政府と中央銀行が

So the cycle continues.

そんなことは望んでいない。

But this bit of a cycle is crucial to its virtue.

多くの国が積極的に追求している

It's okay if prices rise so long as wages rise too.

いわゆる「インフレ目標」である。

You'll still be able to afford the same goods if your wages keep pace with inflation.

ラキーン・マブド：アメリカではね。

Emphasis on the if.

今は約2％だ。

In the U.S., for two years, wage growth lagged behind inflation.

実際、この数字が使われている。

That trend has reversed, starting in mid-2023.

世界中のほとんどの中央銀行がそうだ。

Wages, especially at the bottom, have kept up with inflation.

しかし、実際のところ、それはかなり恣意的な数字だ。

In fact, in many cases surpassed inflation.

目標は、経済学者が考える「好循環」である。

And that is a good thing, that also we have to remember, wages in this country are rock bottom and have been for way, way too long.

それはこんな感じだ。

Right?

一般的に物価が上昇している時代だ、

So wage growth rising, good.

人々はさらに上昇すると予想する傾向がある、

Are wages high enough?

そして、それは実際に人々がお金を使うことを奨励する

No.

自動車や家電製品のような耐久性のある大きな買い物をするとき、

And a disruption at any point in this loop can lead to the kind of high inflation we've experienced over the past few years.

同じものを買うのに後で高いお金を払う必要がないようにするためだ。

When supply chain interruptions created product shortages.

そして、何があっても買わなければならないもの-食料品など-。

And some companies artificially drove up prices to increase their profits.

服も高くなる、

Which, along with some other causes, effectively turned this virtuous cycle into a vicious one.

そのため、より多くの出費が必要となる。

With Digital Credit Union, you'll get a world of financial possibilities.

いずれにせよ、企業はより儲かる、

Starting with their award-winning primary savings account and a zero-fee checking account that could help you get your paycheck up to two days early.

つまり、より多くの人々が職を得る

Like all credit unions, DCU is a not-for-profit, which says its primary focus is to serve their members, unlike banks, which primarily serve their shareholders.

そして、より多くの自分のお金を使うことができる。

From community give-back initiatives to innovative products and services, their mission adheres to these three principles.

つまり、需要が増え、価格が上がるということだ。

People come first, do the right thing, and make a difference.

このサイクルは続く。

DCU does not influence the editorial process of our videos, but they do help make videos like this possible.

しかし、このちょっとしたサイクルが、その "美徳 "にとって極めて重要なのだ。

The government does have tools to combat rising inflation.

賃金が上がれば、物価が上がっても構わない。

They usually shift things here, by raising interest rates, which makes all borrowing, including credit cards and bank loans, more expensive.

同じ商品を買う余裕がある

When the cost of borrowing goes up, it becomes more expensive to make investments, to hire people, and that eventually slows the economy down.

もしあなたの賃金がインフレと歩調を合わせるなら。

That's what the U.S. Federal Reserve did in 2022, which did help bring inflation closer to that 2% target, while placing an even higher financial strain on families who may need to borrow just to make ends meet.

"もし "を強調する。

When the Fed uses interest rates to bring down inflation, what they're doing is tamping down that demand, right?

アメリカでは

They're telling people, you can't have a job.

この2年間、賃金の伸びはインフレ率に遅れをとっていた。

Let's put you out of work so that demand slows, that price growth slows.

この傾向は2023年半ばから逆転する。

The Fed raises interest rates to slow down spending across the economy, partly by signaling to markets that they're taking the problem seriously, which creates an expectation that inflation will fall.

マブド特に底辺の賃金はインフレに追いついています。

But we also have to talk about what happens when prices fall instead of rise.

実際、多くの場合、インフレ率を上回っている。

That's called deflation.

そしてそれは、私たちが覚えておかなければならない良いことでもある。

And falling prices honestly sounds pretty good.

この国はどん底だ

But they can also introduce another kind of cycle.

ずっと、ずっと前からそうだっただろ？

A deflationary spiral.

つまり、賃金上昇率だ。

When prices fall, consumers may hold off on making big purchases, hoping for even lower prices in the future, and the stuff we need costs less, so we just spend less in general.

いいね。

If people are spending less, companies make less.

我々の賃金は十分高いか？いいえ。

They start to cut costs.

そして、このループのどのポイントでも混乱が生じると、次のような事態につながる。

And ultimately, they lay off employees.

我々が経験したような高インフレへ

Unemployed people spend less, and even the people who are employed might choose to save more to stave off financial loss.

ここ数年のことだ。

So prices go down even further as demand goes down.

サプライチェーンの中断による製品不足

So ultimately, all of that adds up to slower economic growth as a whole.

一部の企業は人為的に価格を吊り上げた

Which is really hard to fix, because governments don't have the same ability to respond to deflation as they do to inflation.

利益を上げるためである、

Look at this chart again.

この好循環を、効果的に悪循環に変えてしまうのだ。

The last time inflation dipped below 2% in spring of 2020, the US brought interest rates all the way down to 0.05%.

SPONSORED HOST READ: デジタル信用組合と、

And after bottoming out for a bit, that seemed to work.

経済的な可能性の世界を手に入れることができる。

Inflation inched back up.

受賞歴のあるプライマリー・セービングから始めよう

But if inflation hadn't come back up, the government would have had limited options.

手数料ゼロの当座預金口座

Their rates were already getting almost at zero.

給料を最大2日早く受け取ることができる。

And then things could get dicey.

他の信用組合と同様、DCUは非営利団体である、

Historically, periods of true deflation are pretty rare.

その第一の焦点は会員に奉仕することだという。

But when they do happen, it seems that fixing them requires a pretty serious shock to the economy.

銀行とは異なり、主に

The Great Depression was in part a deflationary spiral, solved only by the outbreak of World War II, when the government supercharged spending and employment.

株主への奉仕地域社会から

And Japan is finally emerging from decades of chronic deflation.

革新的な製品やサービスを提供するために、還元活動を行う。

But that's thanks, in no small part, to the high inflation that most of the world battled over the last few years.

彼らの使命は、この3つの原則に忠実である：

You don't want to rely on those kinds of things.

人を第一に、正しいことを行い、違いを生み出す。

If inflation goes below zero, it is hard to fix.

DCUがビデオの編集過程に影響を与えることはありません、

The cost of deflation is really high, and that's something that we want to avoid.

しかし、彼らはこのようなビデオを可能にする手助けをしてくれる。

This is where inflation targets commit.

政府はインフレ上昇に対抗する手段を持っている。

Let's look at this chart again.

通常、彼らはシフトする

These lines are pretty shaky, because there are a lot of really complicated factors that affect inflation.

ここで金利を引き上げることで、事態は好転する。

The macroeconomy is made up of the decisions of millions of people, of millions of businesses.

これで借り入れはすべて完了だ、

The way those decisions interact, I mean, try thinking about how to map everything out.

クレジットカードや銀行ローンも含めて、より高額になる。

And it's just, it's mind-blowing, right?

MABUD借入コストが上がれば、より高くなる

Inflation will always fluctuate, even if it's just a little.

人を雇うための投資を行うためだ。

And this is the last big reason why they don't want inflation to be zero percent.

それが結局、経済を減速させる。

If inflation sits here, that basic shakiness is constantly at risk of dropping down into the deflation zone, triggering the bad cycle.

それがアメリカだ。

And the way to prevent that is to have it sit just a little bit higher.

連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）が2022年に行ったことだ、

So...

その結果、インフレ率は目標の2％に近づいた。

A little inflation is usually a good thing.

一方、財政的な負担はさらに大きくなる

Yeah.

生活費を稼ぐために借金をしなければならない家庭もあるだろう。

That's annoying.

MABUDFRBがインフレを抑えるために金利を使うとき、