The first question is, how did the number of deaths per year from natural disaster,

(ハンス・ロスリング) 皆さんに ３つの３択問題に答えてもらいます

how did that change during the last century?

(ハンス・ロスリング) 皆さんに ３つの３択問題に答えてもらいます

Did it more than double, did it remain about the same in the world as a whole, or did it decrease to less than half?

この装置を使って 答えてください

Please answer A, B or C.

第１問は「自然災害による １年あたりの死者数は

I see lots of answers. This is much faster than I do it at universities.

第１問は「自然災害による １年あたりの死者数は

They are so slow. They keep thinking, thinking, thinking.

20世紀を通じて どれくらい変わったか？」です

Oh, very, very good.

20世紀を通じて どれくらい変わったか？」です

And we go to the next question.

(A) 倍になった

So how long did women 30 years old in the world go to school: seven years, five years or three years?

(B) 世界全体では ほとんど変わっていない

A, B or C? Please answer.

(C) 半数以下になった

And we go to the next question.

ABCで答えてください

In the last 20 years, how did the percentage of people in the world who live in extreme poverty change?

答えが集まっています 大学でやった時よりずっと早いですね

Extreme poverty — not having enough food for the day.

学生は遅いです ずっと考え続けています

Did it almost double, did it remain more or less the same, or did it halve?

大変結構

A, B or C?

では次の問題に行きましょう

Now, answers.

「30歳の女性が 学校に通った年数は

You see, deaths from natural disasters in the world, you can see it from this graph here, from 1900 to 2000.

世界平均で何年か？」

In 1900, there was about half a million people who died every year from natural disasters

(A)７年 (B)５年 (C)３年

Floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruption, whatever, droughts. And then, how did that change?

AかBかCか？ さあ答えて

Gapminder asked the public in Sweden. This is how they answered.

次の問題です

The Swedish public answered like this:

「世界で極貧生活を 送る人の割合は

Fifty percent thought it had doubled, 38 percent said it's more or less the same, 12 said it had halved.

この20年で どれほど変わったか？」

This is the best data from the disaster researchers, and it goes up and down

この20年で どれほど変わったか？」

And it goes to the Second World War

極貧というのは 日々の食事にも事欠くということです

And after that it starts to fall and it keeps falling and it's down to much less than half.

(A) 約２倍

The world has been much, much more capable as the decades go by to protect people from this, you know.

(B) ほとんど変わらない

So only 12 percent of the Swedes know this.

(C) 半分になった

So I went to the zoo and I asked the chimps.

AかBかCか？

(Laughter) (Applause)

では解答です

The chimps don't watch the evening news, so the chimps, they choose by random

これは

So the Swedes answer worse than random. Now how did you do?

1900年から2000年までの

That's you. You were beaten by the chimps.

自然災害による

But it was close.

死者数のグラフです

You were three times better than the Swedes, but that's not enough.

1900年には 自然災害のため

You shouldn't compare yourself to Swedes.

年に50万人くらいが 死んでいました

You must have higher ambitions in the world.

洪水 地震 火山噴火 干ばつ 等々

Let's look at the next answer here: women in school.

それがどう変わったのか

Here, you can see men went eight years. How long did women go to school?

ギャップマインダー財団は スウェーデンで

Well, we asked the Swedes like this, and that gives you a hint, doesn't it?

一般の人にアンケートを 取りました

The right answer is probably the one the fewest Swedes picked, isn't it? (Laughter)

スウェーデン人の答えです

Let's see, let's see. Here we come.

50%が２倍

Yes, yes, yes, women have almost caught up.

38%がほぼ同じ

This is the U.S. public. And this is you.

12%が半分 という解答でした

Here you come. Ooh. Well, congratulations

こちらは災害研究者による 実際のデータです

You're twice as good as the Swedes, but you don't need me —

上下していますが

So how come?

第二次世界大戦後に 下がり始め

I think it's like this, that everyone is aware that there are countries and there are areas where girls have great difficulties.

ずっと下がり続けて

They are stopped when they go to school, and it's disgusting.

半分よりもずっと 少なくなっています

But in the majority of the world, where most people in the world live,

この数十年で 世界は —

most countries, girls today go to school as long as boys, more or less.

ずっと良く 災害から人々を

That doesn't mean that gender equity is achieved, not at all.

守れるように なったんです

They still are confined to terrible, terrible limitations, but schooling is there in the world today.

スウェーデンで正しく答えたのは たったの12%です

Now, we miss the majority.

それで動物園に行って チンパンジーにも聞いてみました

When you answer, you answer according to the worst places

(笑) (拍手)

And there you are right, but you miss the majority.

チンパンジーは 夜のニュースなど見ず

What about poverty?

ランダムに答えます

Well, it's very clear that poverty here was almost halved

スウェーデン人は ランダムな答えよりも駄目なんです

And in U.S., when we asked the public, only five percent got it right.

皆さんはどうでしょう？

And you? Ah, you almost made it to the chimps.

これが皆さんの答えです

(Laughter) (Applause)

チンパンジーに 負けてるじゃないですか！

That little, just a few of you!

(笑)

There must be preconceived ideas, you know.

でもいい勝負です

And many in the rich countries, they think that oh, we can never end extreme poverty.

スウェーデン人よりは ３倍良いですが

Of course they think so, because they don't even know what has happened.

十分じゃありません

The first thing to think about the future is to know about the present.

スウェーデン人なんかと 比べてちゃいけません

These questions were a few of the first ones in the pilot phase of the Ignorance Project in Gapminder Foundation that we run

もっと高いところを 狙わないと

And it was started, this project, last year by my boss, and also my son, Ola Rosling.

次の解答です 女子の就学年数について

He's cofounder and director, and he wanted,

男子は８年です

Ola told me we have to be more systematic when we fight devastating ignorance.

女子は何年 学校に通うでしょう？

So already the pilots reveal this, that so many in the public score worse than random

スウェーデン人の答えは こうでした

So we have to think about preconceived ideas

これはヒントになりますね

And one of the main preconceived ideas is about world income distribution.

正しい答えはきっと

Look here. This is how it was in 1975.

スウェーデン人が 選ばなかったやつでしょう

It's the number of people on each income, from one dollar a day

(笑)

See, there was one hump here, around one dollar a day,

見てみましょう

And then there was one hump here somewhere between 10 and 100 dollars.

ほらほら 女子は ほとんど男子と並んでいます

The world was two groups. It was a camel world, like a camel with two humps

こちらはアメリカ人の答え

The poor ones and the rich ones, and there were fewer in between.

これが皆さん

But look how this has changed: As I go forward, what has changed,

ほう やりましたね

the world population has grown, and the humps start to merge.

スウェーデン人よりは 倍マシですが

The lower humps merged with the upper hump, and the camel dies and we have a dromedary world with one hump only.

それは良いことを 意味しません

The percent in poverty has decreased. Still it's appalling that so many remain in extreme poverty.

どうしてこんな結果に なったんでしょう？

We still have this group, almost a billion, over there, but that can be ended now.

世界には女性が 虐げられている —

The challenge we have now is to get away from that, understand where the majority is,

国や地域があるのを

And that is very clearly shown in this question.

みんな知っています

We asked, what is the percentage of the world's one-year-old children

学校をやめさせられて しまいます

who have got those basic vaccines against measles and other things that we have had for many years: 20, 50 or 80 percent?

酷い話です

Now, this is what the U.S. public and the Swedish answered.

しかし世界の大部分では

Look at the Swedish result: you know what the right answer is.

今や 女子も

Who the heck is a professor of global health in that country?

男子と同じくらい

Well, it's me. It's me.

学校に通っているんです

It's very difficult, this. It's very difficult.

これは男女格差が 解消された —

However, Ola's approach to really measure what we know made headlines

ということではありません

And CNN published these results on their web and they had the questions there,

女性は依然大きな 制限に直面しています

Millions answered, and I think there were about 2,000 comments, and this was one of the comments

しかし就学に関しては 同等になっているんです

"I bet no member of the media passed the test," he said.

皆さんは最悪のところを

So Ola told me, "Take these devices. You are invited to media conferences.

基準に答えていて

Give it to them and measure what the media know."

多数派を見落としているんです

And ladies and gentlemen, for the first time, the informal results from a conference with U.S. media.

貧困はどうでしょう ？

And then, lately, from the European Union media.

貧困がほとんど 半分になっているのは

You see, the problem is not that people don't read and listen to the media.

明白な事実です

The problem is that the media doesn't know themselves.

アメリカで正しく答えたのは

What shall we do about this, Ola? Do we have any ideas?

たった5%です

Yes, I have an idea, but first, I'm so sorry that you were beaten by the chimps.

皆さんはどうでしょう？

Fortunately, I will be able to comfort you by showing why it was not your fault, actually.

ほぼチンパンジーに 並びましたね

Then, I will equip you with some tricks for beating the chimps in the future. That's basically what I will do.

(笑) (拍手)

But first, let's look at why are we so ignorant, and it all starts in this place.

ほんの少しだけ 負けています

It's Hudiksvall. It's a city in northern Sweden.

先入観があるんです

It's a neighborhood where I grew up, and it's a neighborhood with a large problem.

豊かな国の人たちは

Actually, it has exactly the same problem which existed in all the neighborhoods where you grew up as well.

貧困は決してなくならない と思っています

It was not representative. Okay? It gave me a very biased view of how life is on this planet.

そうでしょうとも

So this is the first piece of the ignorance puzzle. We have a personal bias

何が起きているか 知らないんですから

We have all different experiences from communities and people we meet

未来を考えるには

And on top of this, we start school, and we add the next problem.

まず現在を知ることです

Well, I like schools, but teachers tend to teach outdated worldviews,

これはギャップマインダー財団で 取り組んでいる

because they learned something when they went to school, and now they describe this world to the students without any bad intentions,

「無知解消プロジェクト」 試行フェーズの

and those books, of course, that are printed are outdated in a world that changes.

最初の質問のいくつかです

And there is really no practice to keep the teaching material up to date.

このプロジェクトは去年

So that's what we are focusing on. So we have these outdated facts added on top of our personal bias.

私の上司であり息子でもある オーラ・ロスリングが始めました (笑)

What happens next is news, okay?

彼は共同創立者 兼 理事です

An excellent journalist knows how to pick the story that will make headlines, and people will read it because it's sensational.

人々の甚だしい無知と 戦うには

Unusual events are more interesting, no? And they are exaggerated, and especially things we're afraid of

もっと系統的に 取り組まねばならない —

A shark attack on a Swedish person will get headlines for weeks in Sweden.

と彼は考えました

So these three skewed sources of information were really hard to get away from.

試行段階ですでに 多くの人の答えは

They kind of bombard us and equip our mind with a lot of strange ideas

ランダムな回答よりずっと悪いことが 明らかになりました

and on top of it we put the very thing that makes us humans, our human intuition.

先入観について もっと知らねばなりません

It was good in evolution. It helped us generalize and jump to conclusions very, very fast.

大きな先入観の１つは

It helped us exaggerate what we were afraid of, and we seek causality where there is none

世界の所得分布に 関するものです

And we then get an illusion of confidence where we believe that we are the best car drivers, above the average

これは1975年の所得分布で

Everybody answered that question, "Yeah, I drive cars better."

それぞれの所得層に属する 人数を示しています

Okay, this was good evolutionarily, but now when it comes to the worldview

ここは １日１ドル —

It is the exact reason why it's upside down.

(拍手)

The trends that are increasing are instead falling, and the other way around

ここ １日１ドルのところに

And in this case, the chimps use our intuition against us, and it becomes our weakness instead of our strength.

１つコブがあり

It was supposed to be our strength, wasn't it?

10ドルと100ドルの間に

So how do we solve such problems?

もう１つコブがあります

First, we need to measure it, and then we need to cure it.

世界は２グループに 分かれていました

So by measuring it we can understand what is the pattern of ignorance.

フタコブラクダの世界です

We started the pilot last year, and now we're pretty sure that we will encounter a lot of ignorance across the whole world

貧しい人々と 豊かな人々がいて

And the idea is really to scale it up to all domains or dimensions of global development

その中間は あまりいませんでした

such as climate, endangered species, human rights, gender equality, energy, finance.

それがどう変わったか 見てください

All different sectors have facts, and there are organizations trying to spread awareness about these facts

時を進めていくと

So I've started actually contacting some of them, like WWF and Amnesty International and UNICEF

世界の人口は増えていき

And asking them, what are your favorite facts which you think the public doesn't know?

２つのコブが １つになっていきます

Okay, I gather those facts. Imagine a long list with, say, 250 facts

左のコブが右のコブと一緒になり

And then we poll the public and see where they score worst.

フタコブラクダが消えて

So we get a shorter list with the terrible results, like some few examples from Hans

ヒトコブラクダになりました

And we have no problem finding these kinds of terrible results

貧困層の割合は 減っていますが

Okay, this little shortlist, what are we going to do with it?

依然として

Well, we turn it into a knowledge certificate, a global knowledge certificate, which you can use

大変な数の人が 極貧生活をしています

If you're a large organization, a school, a university, or maybe a news agency, to certify yourself as globally knowledgeable.

ほぼ10億という人が このグループに属していますが

Basically meaning, we don't hire people who score like chimpanzees.

それもなくすことが できるはずです

Of course you shouldn't. So maybe 10 years from now

今の我々の問題は

If this project succeeds, you will be sitting in an interview having to fill out this crazy global knowledge.

頭を切り換え 大多数が何かを理解することです

So now we come to the practical tricks. How are you going to succeed?

それはこの質問に 明確に現れています

There is, of course, one way, which is to sit down late nights and learn all the facts by heart by reading all these reports.

「はしかなどの 基本的なワクチンを接種する

That will never happen, actually.

「はしかなどの 基本的なワクチンを接種する

Not even Hans thinks that's going to happen.

１歳児の割合は どれくらいか？」

People don't have that time. People like shortcuts, and here are the shortcuts.

１歳児の割合は どれくらいか？」

We need to turn our intuition into strength again. We need to be able to generalize.

20%か50%か80%か？

So now I'm going to show you some tricks where the misconceptions are turned around into rules of thumb.

アメリカ人とスウェーデン人の答えです

Let's start with the first misconception. This is very widespread. Everything is getting worse.

スウェーデン人の答で

You heard it. You thought it yourself. The other way to think is, most things improve.

正しい答えが どれか分かりますね ？

So you're sitting with a question in front of you and you're unsure.

(笑)

You should guess "improve." Okay? Don't go for the worse.

あの国じゃいったい誰が 世界保健を教えてるんでしょうか？

That will help you score better on our tests.

ああ 私でした

That was the first one.

(笑)

There are rich and poor and the gap is increasing. It's a terrible inequality.

すごく難しいんですって

Yeah, it's an unequal world, but when you look at the data, it's one hump.

(拍手)

Okay? If you feel unsure, go for "the most people are in the middle."

我々が知っていることを測定する というオーラの試みは

That's going to help you get the answer right.

ニュースでも取り上げられ

Now, the next preconceived idea is first countries and people need to be very, very rich

こうした結果が CNNのサイトで紹介され

to get the social development like girls in school and be ready for natural disasters.

そこで何百万という人が 質問に答え

No, no, no. That's wrong.

２千くらいのコメントが 寄せられました

Look: that huge hump in the middle already have girls in school.

その１つがこれ

So if you are unsure, go for the "the majority already have this

「マスメディアの人間は誰も この試験に通らないだろうよ」

Like electricity and girls in school, these kinds of things.

それでオーラが言いました 「マスメディアの会議に

They're only rules of thumb, so of course they don't apply to everything, but this is how you can generalize.

招待されてることだし

Let's look at the last one. If something, yes, this is a good one, sharks are dangerous.

マスメディア関係者に これを聞いてみたらいい」

No — well, yes, but they are not so important in the global statistics, that is what I'm saying.

皆さん 披露します

I actually, I'm very afraid of sharks.

これがアメリカの

So as soon as I see a question about things I'm afraid of, which might be earthquakes, other religions

マスメディア関係の 会議での結果です

Maybe I'm afraid of terrorists or sharks, anything that makes me feel, assume you're going to exaggerate the problem.

こちらは最近あった EUの マスメディア関係の会議での結果です

That's a rule of thumb. Of course there are dangerous things that are also great. Sharks kill very, very few.

(笑)

That's how you should think.

問題は人々が

With these four rules of thumb, you could probably answer better than the chimps, because the chimps cannot do this.

ニュースを見ないこと ではありません

They cannot generalize these kinds of rules.

マスメディアの人間自身が 知らないんですから

And hopefully we can turn your world around and we're going to beat the chimps. Okay?

どうしたものだろうね オーラ？

That's a systematic approach.

何か考えはあるかい？

Now the question, is this important?

(拍手)

Yeah, it's important to understand poverty, extreme poverty and how to fight it, and how to bring girls in school

(オーラ・ロスリング) 考えはありますが その前に一言

When we realize that actually it's succeeding, we can understand it.

チンパンジーに負けた皆さん お気の毒さまでした

But is it important for everyone else who cares about the rich end of this scale?

それが皆さんのせいでは ないことを示して

I would say yes, extremely important, for the same reason.

安心させてあげましょう

If you have a fact-based worldview of today

それから将来 チンパンジーに勝てるよう

You might have a chance to understand what's coming next in the future.

秘訣をお教えします

We're going back to these two humps in 1975.

それが今日 お話しすることです

That's when I was born, and I selected the West.

まず 我々はなぜこんなにも 無知なのかですが —

That's the current EU countries and North America.

それは ここに始まります

Let's now see how the rest and the West compares in terms of how rich you are.