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  • I'm going to ask you three multiple choice questions. Use this device. Use this device to answer.

    翻訳: Yasushi Aoki 校正: Mari Arimitsu

  • The first question is, how did the number of deaths per year from natural disaster,

    (ハンス・ロスリング) 皆さんに 3つの3択問題に答えてもらいます

  • how did that change during the last century?

    (ハンス・ロスリング) 皆さんに 3つの3択問題に答えてもらいます

  • Did it more than double, did it remain about the same in the world as a whole, or did it decrease to less than half?

    この装置を使って 答えてください

  • Please answer A, B or C.

    第1問は「自然災害による 1年あたりの死者数は

  • I see lots of answers. This is much faster than I do it at universities.

    第1問は「自然災害による 1年あたりの死者数は

  • They are so slow. They keep thinking, thinking, thinking.

    20世紀を通じて どれくらい変わったか?」です

  • Oh, very, very good.

    20世紀を通じて どれくらい変わったか?」です

  • And we go to the next question.

    (A) 倍になった

  • So how long did women 30 years old in the world go to school: seven years, five years or three years?

    (B) 世界全体では ほとんど変わっていない

  • A, B or C? Please answer.

    (C) 半数以下になった

  • And we go to the next question.


  • In the last 20 years, how did the percentage of people in the world who live in extreme poverty change?

    答えが集まっています 大学でやった時よりずっと早いですね

  • Extreme povertynot having enough food for the day.

    学生は遅いです ずっと考え続けています

  • Did it almost double, did it remain more or less the same, or did it halve?


  • A, B or C?


  • Now, answers.

    「30歳の女性が 学校に通った年数は

  • You see, deaths from natural disasters in the world, you can see it from this graph here, from 1900 to 2000.


  • In 1900, there was about half a million people who died every year from natural disasters

    (A)7年 (B)5年 (C)3年

  • Floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruption, whatever, droughts. And then, how did that change?

    AかBかCか? さあ答えて

  • Gapminder asked the public in Sweden. This is how they answered.


  • The Swedish public answered like this:

    「世界で極貧生活を 送る人の割合は

  • Fifty percent thought it had doubled, 38 percent said it's more or less the same, 12 said it had halved.

    この20年で どれほど変わったか?」

  • This is the best data from the disaster researchers, and it goes up and down

    この20年で どれほど変わったか?」

  • And it goes to the Second World War

    極貧というのは 日々の食事にも事欠くということです

  • And after that it starts to fall and it keeps falling and it's down to much less than half.

    (A) 約2倍

  • The world has been much, much more capable as the decades go by to protect people from this, you know.

    (B) ほとんど変わらない

  • So only 12 percent of the Swedes know this.

    (C) 半分になった

  • So I went to the zoo and I asked the chimps.


  • (Laughter) (Applause)


  • The chimps don't watch the evening news, so the chimps, they choose by random


  • So the Swedes answer worse than random. Now how did you do?


  • That's you. You were beaten by the chimps.


  • But it was close.


  • You were three times better than the Swedes, but that's not enough.

    1900年には 自然災害のため

  • You shouldn't compare yourself to Swedes.

    年に50万人くらいが 死んでいました

  • You must have higher ambitions in the world.

    洪水 地震 火山噴火 干ばつ 等々

  • Let's look at the next answer here: women in school.


  • Here, you can see men went eight years. How long did women go to school?

    ギャップマインダー財団は スウェーデンで

  • Well, we asked the Swedes like this, and that gives you a hint, doesn't it?

    一般の人にアンケートを 取りました

  • The right answer is probably the one the fewest Swedes picked, isn't it? (Laughter)


  • Let's see, let's see. Here we come.


  • Yes, yes, yes, women have almost caught up.


  • This is the U.S. public. And this is you.

    12%が半分 という解答でした

  • Here you come. Ooh. Well, congratulations

    こちらは災害研究者による 実際のデータです

  • You're twice as good as the Swedes, but you don't need me


  • So how come?

    第二次世界大戦後に 下がり始め

  • I think it's like this, that everyone is aware that there are countries and there are areas where girls have great difficulties.


  • They are stopped when they go to school, and it's disgusting.

    半分よりもずっと 少なくなっています

  • But in the majority of the world, where most people in the world live,

    この数十年で 世界は —

  • most countries, girls today go to school as long as boys, more or less.

    ずっと良く 災害から人々を

  • That doesn't mean that gender equity is achieved, not at all.

    守れるように なったんです

  • They still are confined to terrible, terrible limitations, but schooling is there in the world today.

    スウェーデンで正しく答えたのは たったの12%です

  • Now, we miss the majority.

    それで動物園に行って チンパンジーにも聞いてみました

  • When you answer, you answer according to the worst places

    (笑) (拍手)

  • And there you are right, but you miss the majority.

    チンパンジーは 夜のニュースなど見ず

  • What about poverty?


  • Well, it's very clear that poverty here was almost halved

    スウェーデン人は ランダムな答えよりも駄目なんです

  • And in U.S., when we asked the public, only five percent got it right.


  • And you? Ah, you almost made it to the chimps.


  • (Laughter) (Applause)

    チンパンジーに 負けてるじゃないですか!

  • That little, just a few of you!


  • There must be preconceived ideas, you know.


  • And many in the rich countries, they think that oh, we can never end extreme poverty.

    スウェーデン人よりは 3倍良いですが

  • Of course they think so, because they don't even know what has happened.


  • The first thing to think about the future is to know about the present.

    スウェーデン人なんかと 比べてちゃいけません

  • These questions were a few of the first ones in the pilot phase of the Ignorance Project in Gapminder Foundation that we run

    もっと高いところを 狙わないと

  • And it was started, this project, last year by my boss, and also my son, Ola Rosling.

    次の解答です 女子の就学年数について

  • He's cofounder and director, and he wanted,


  • Ola told me we have to be more systematic when we fight devastating ignorance.

    女子は何年 学校に通うでしょう?

  • So already the pilots reveal this, that so many in the public score worse than random

    スウェーデン人の答えは こうでした

  • So we have to think about preconceived ideas


  • And one of the main preconceived ideas is about world income distribution.


  • Look here. This is how it was in 1975.

    スウェーデン人が 選ばなかったやつでしょう

  • It's the number of people on each income, from one dollar a day


  • See, there was one hump here, around one dollar a day,


  • And then there was one hump here somewhere between 10 and 100 dollars.

    ほらほら 女子は ほとんど男子と並んでいます

  • The world was two groups. It was a camel world, like a camel with two humps


  • The poor ones and the rich ones, and there were fewer in between.


  • But look how this has changed: As I go forward, what has changed,

    ほう やりましたね

  • the world population has grown, and the humps start to merge.

    スウェーデン人よりは 倍マシですが

  • The lower humps merged with the upper hump, and the camel dies and we have a dromedary world with one hump only.

    それは良いことを 意味しません

  • The percent in poverty has decreased. Still it's appalling that so many remain in extreme poverty.

    どうしてこんな結果に なったんでしょう?

  • We still have this group, almost a billion, over there, but that can be ended now.

    世界には女性が 虐げられている —

  • The challenge we have now is to get away from that, understand where the majority is,


  • And that is very clearly shown in this question.


  • We asked, what is the percentage of the world's one-year-old children

    学校をやめさせられて しまいます

  • who have got those basic vaccines against measles and other things that we have had for many years: 20, 50 or 80 percent?


  • Now, this is what the U.S. public and the Swedish answered.


  • Look at the Swedish result: you know what the right answer is.

    今や 女子も

  • Who the heck is a professor of global health in that country?


  • Well, it's me. It's me.


  • It's very difficult, this. It's very difficult.

    これは男女格差が 解消された —

  • However, Ola's approach to really measure what we know made headlines


  • And CNN published these results on their web and they had the questions there,

    女性は依然大きな 制限に直面しています

  • Millions answered, and I think there were about 2,000 comments, and this was one of the comments

    しかし就学に関しては 同等になっているんです

  • "I bet no member of the media passed the test," he said.


  • So Ola told me, "Take these devices. You are invited to media conferences.


  • Give it to them and measure what the media know."


  • And ladies and gentlemen, for the first time, the informal results from a conference with U.S. media.

    貧困はどうでしょう ?

  • And then, lately, from the European Union media.

    貧困がほとんど 半分になっているのは

  • You see, the problem is not that people don't read and listen to the media.


  • The problem is that the media doesn't know themselves.


  • What shall we do about this, Ola? Do we have any ideas?


  • Yes, I have an idea, but first, I'm so sorry that you were beaten by the chimps.


  • Fortunately, I will be able to comfort you by showing why it was not your fault, actually.

    ほぼチンパンジーに 並びましたね

  • Then, I will equip you with some tricks for beating the chimps in the future. That's basically what I will do.

    (笑) (拍手)

  • But first, let's look at why are we so ignorant, and it all starts in this place.

    ほんの少しだけ 負けています

  • It's Hudiksvall. It's a city in northern Sweden.


  • It's a neighborhood where I grew up, and it's a neighborhood with a large problem.


  • Actually, it has exactly the same problem which existed in all the neighborhoods where you grew up as well.

    貧困は決してなくならない と思っています

  • It was not representative. Okay? It gave me a very biased view of how life is on this planet.


  • So this is the first piece of the ignorance puzzle. We have a personal bias

    何が起きているか 知らないんですから

  • We have all different experiences from communities and people we meet


  • And on top of this, we start school, and we add the next problem.


  • Well, I like schools, but teachers tend to teach outdated worldviews,

    これはギャップマインダー財団で 取り組んでいる

  • because they learned something when they went to school, and now they describe this world to the students without any bad intentions,

    「無知解消プロジェクト」 試行フェーズの

  • and those books, of course, that are printed are outdated in a world that changes.


  • And there is really no practice to keep the teaching material up to date.


  • So that's what we are focusing on. So we have these outdated facts added on top of our personal bias.

    私の上司であり息子でもある オーラ・ロスリングが始めました (笑)

  • What happens next is news, okay?

    彼は共同創立者 兼 理事です

  • An excellent journalist knows how to pick the story that will make headlines, and people will read it because it's sensational.

    人々の甚だしい無知と 戦うには

  • Unusual events are more interesting, no? And they are exaggerated, and especially things we're afraid of

    もっと系統的に 取り組まねばならない —

  • A shark attack on a Swedish person will get headlines for weeks in Sweden.


  • So these three skewed sources of information were really hard to get away from.

    試行段階ですでに 多くの人の答えは

  • They kind of bombard us and equip our mind with a lot of strange ideas

    ランダムな回答よりずっと悪いことが 明らかになりました

  • and on top of it we put the very thing that makes us humans, our human intuition.

    先入観について もっと知らねばなりません

  • It was good in evolution. It helped us generalize and jump to conclusions very, very fast.


  • It helped us exaggerate what we were afraid of, and we seek causality where there is none

    世界の所得分布に 関するものです

  • And we then get an illusion of confidence where we believe that we are the best car drivers, above the average


  • Everybody answered that question, "Yeah, I drive cars better."

    それぞれの所得層に属する 人数を示しています

  • Okay, this was good evolutionarily, but now when it comes to the worldview

    ここは 1日1ドル —

  • It is the exact reason why it's upside down.


  • The trends that are increasing are instead falling, and the other way around

    ここ 1日1ドルのところに

  • And in this case, the chimps use our intuition against us, and it becomes our weakness instead of our strength.


  • It was supposed to be our strength, wasn't it?


  • So how do we solve such problems?


  • First, we need to measure it, and then we need to cure it.

    世界は2グループに 分かれていました

  • So by measuring it we can understand what is the pattern of ignorance.


  • We started the pilot last year, and now we're pretty sure that we will encounter a lot of ignorance across the whole world

    貧しい人々と 豊かな人々がいて

  • And the idea is really to scale it up to all domains or dimensions of global development

    その中間は あまりいませんでした

  • such as climate, endangered species, human rights, gender equality, energy, finance.

    それがどう変わったか 見てください

  • All different sectors have facts, and there are organizations trying to spread awareness about these facts


  • So I've started actually contacting some of them, like WWF and Amnesty International and UNICEF


  • And asking them, what are your favorite facts which you think the public doesn't know?

    2つのコブが 1つになっていきます

  • Okay, I gather those facts. Imagine a long list with, say, 250 facts


  • And then we poll the public and see where they score worst.


  • So we get a shorter list with the terrible results, like some few examples from Hans


  • And we have no problem finding these kinds of terrible results

    貧困層の割合は 減っていますが

  • Okay, this little shortlist, what are we going to do with it?


  • Well, we turn it into a knowledge certificate, a global knowledge certificate, which you can use

    大変な数の人が 極貧生活をしています

  • If you're a large organization, a school, a university, or maybe a news agency, to certify yourself as globally knowledgeable.

    ほぼ10億という人が このグループに属していますが

  • Basically meaning, we don't hire people who score like chimpanzees.

    それもなくすことが できるはずです

  • Of course you shouldn't. So maybe 10 years from now


  • If this project succeeds, you will be sitting in an interview having to fill out this crazy global knowledge.

    頭を切り換え 大多数が何かを理解することです

  • So now we come to the practical tricks. How are you going to succeed?

    それはこの質問に 明確に現れています

  • There is, of course, one way, which is to sit down late nights and learn all the facts by heart by reading all these reports.

    「はしかなどの 基本的なワクチンを接種する

  • That will never happen, actually.

    「はしかなどの 基本的なワクチンを接種する

  • Not even Hans thinks that's going to happen.

    1歳児の割合は どれくらいか?」