## 字幕表 動画を再生する

• I'm going to ask you three multiple choice questions. Use this device. Use this device to answer.

翻訳: Yasushi Aoki 校正: Mari Arimitsu

• The first question is, how did the number of deaths per year from natural disaster,

(ハンス・ロスリング) 皆さんに ３つの３択問題に答えてもらいます

• how did that change during the last century?

(ハンス・ロスリング) 皆さんに ３つの３択問題に答えてもらいます

• Did it more than double, did it remain about the same in the world as a whole, or did it decrease to less than half?

この装置を使って 答えてください

第１問は「自然災害による １年あたりの死者数は

• I see lots of answers. This is much faster than I do it at universities.

第１問は「自然災害による １年あたりの死者数は

• They are so slow. They keep thinking, thinking, thinking.

20世紀を通じて どれくらい変わったか？」です

• Oh, very, very good.

20世紀を通じて どれくらい変わったか？」です

• And we go to the next question.

(A) 倍になった

• So how long did women 30 years old in the world go to school: seven years, five years or three years?

(B) 世界全体では ほとんど変わっていない

(C) 半数以下になった

• And we go to the next question.

ABCで答えてください

• In the last 20 years, how did the percentage of people in the world who live in extreme poverty change?

答えが集まっています 大学でやった時よりずっと早いですね

• Extreme povertynot having enough food for the day.

学生は遅いです ずっと考え続けています

• Did it almost double, did it remain more or less the same, or did it halve?

大変結構

• A, B or C?

では次の問題に行きましょう

「30歳の女性が 学校に通った年数は

• You see, deaths from natural disasters in the world, you can see it from this graph here, from 1900 to 2000.

世界平均で何年か？」

• In 1900, there was about half a million people who died every year from natural disasters

(A)７年 (B)５年 (C)３年

• Floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruption, whatever, droughts. And then, how did that change?

AかBかCか？ さあ答えて

• Gapminder asked the public in Sweden. This is how they answered.

次の問題です

• The Swedish public answered like this:

「世界で極貧生活を 送る人の割合は

• Fifty percent thought it had doubled, 38 percent said it's more or less the same, 12 said it had halved.

この20年で どれほど変わったか？」

• This is the best data from the disaster researchers, and it goes up and down

この20年で どれほど変わったか？」

• And it goes to the Second World War

極貧というのは 日々の食事にも事欠くということです

• And after that it starts to fall and it keeps falling and it's down to much less than half.

(A) 約２倍

• The world has been much, much more capable as the decades go by to protect people from this, you know.

(B) ほとんど変わらない

• So only 12 percent of the Swedes know this.

(C) 半分になった

• So I went to the zoo and I asked the chimps.

AかBかCか？

• (Laughter) (Applause)

では解答です

• The chimps don't watch the evening news, so the chimps, they choose by random

これは

• So the Swedes answer worse than random. Now how did you do?

1900年から2000年までの

• That's you. You were beaten by the chimps.

自然災害による

• But it was close.

死者数のグラフです

• You were three times better than the Swedes, but that's not enough.

1900年には 自然災害のため

• You shouldn't compare yourself to Swedes.

年に50万人くらいが 死んでいました

• You must have higher ambitions in the world.

洪水 地震 火山噴火 干ばつ 等々

• Let's look at the next answer here: women in school.

それがどう変わったのか

• Here, you can see men went eight years. How long did women go to school?

ギャップマインダー財団は スウェーデンで

• Well, we asked the Swedes like this, and that gives you a hint, doesn't it?

一般の人にアンケートを 取りました

• The right answer is probably the one the fewest Swedes picked, isn't it? (Laughter)

スウェーデン人の答えです

• Let's see, let's see. Here we come.

50%が２倍

• Yes, yes, yes, women have almost caught up.

38%がほぼ同じ

• This is the U.S. public. And this is you.

12%が半分 という解答でした

• Here you come. Ooh. Well, congratulations

こちらは災害研究者による 実際のデータです

• You're twice as good as the Swedes, but you don't need me

上下していますが

• So how come?

第二次世界大戦後に 下がり始め

• I think it's like this, that everyone is aware that there are countries and there are areas where girls have great difficulties.

ずっと下がり続けて

• They are stopped when they go to school, and it's disgusting.

半分よりもずっと 少なくなっています

• But in the majority of the world, where most people in the world live,

この数十年で 世界は —

• most countries, girls today go to school as long as boys, more or less.

ずっと良く 災害から人々を

• That doesn't mean that gender equity is achieved, not at all.

守れるように なったんです

• They still are confined to terrible, terrible limitations, but schooling is there in the world today.

スウェーデンで正しく答えたのは たったの12%です

• Now, we miss the majority.

それで動物園に行って チンパンジーにも聞いてみました

(笑) (拍手)

• And there you are right, but you miss the majority.

チンパンジーは 夜のニュースなど見ず

ランダムに答えます

• Well, it's very clear that poverty here was almost halved

スウェーデン人は ランダムな答えよりも駄目なんです

• And in U.S., when we asked the public, only five percent got it right.

皆さんはどうでしょう？

• And you? Ah, you almost made it to the chimps.

これが皆さんの答えです

• (Laughter) (Applause)

チンパンジーに 負けてるじゃないですか！

• That little, just a few of you!

(笑)

• There must be preconceived ideas, you know.

でもいい勝負です

• And many in the rich countries, they think that oh, we can never end extreme poverty.

スウェーデン人よりは ３倍良いですが

• Of course they think so, because they don't even know what has happened.

十分じゃありません

• The first thing to think about the future is to know about the present.

スウェーデン人なんかと 比べてちゃいけません

• These questions were a few of the first ones in the pilot phase of the Ignorance Project in Gapminder Foundation that we run

もっと高いところを 狙わないと

• And it was started, this project, last year by my boss, and also my son, Ola Rosling.

次の解答です 女子の就学年数について

• He's cofounder and director, and he wanted,

男子は８年です

• Ola told me we have to be more systematic when we fight devastating ignorance.

女子は何年 学校に通うでしょう？

• So already the pilots reveal this, that so many in the public score worse than random

スウェーデン人の答えは こうでした

• So we have to think about preconceived ideas

これはヒントになりますね

• And one of the main preconceived ideas is about world income distribution.

正しい答えはきっと

• Look here. This is how it was in 1975.

スウェーデン人が 選ばなかったやつでしょう

• It's the number of people on each income, from one dollar a day

(笑)

• See, there was one hump here, around one dollar a day,

見てみましょう

• And then there was one hump here somewhere between 10 and 100 dollars.

ほらほら 女子は ほとんど男子と並んでいます

• The world was two groups. It was a camel world, like a camel with two humps

こちらはアメリカ人の答え

• The poor ones and the rich ones, and there were fewer in between.

これが皆さん

• But look how this has changed: As I go forward, what has changed,

ほう やりましたね

• the world population has grown, and the humps start to merge.

スウェーデン人よりは 倍マシですが

• The lower humps merged with the upper hump, and the camel dies and we have a dromedary world with one hump only.

それは良いことを 意味しません

• The percent in poverty has decreased. Still it's appalling that so many remain in extreme poverty.

どうしてこんな結果に なったんでしょう？

• We still have this group, almost a billion, over there, but that can be ended now.

世界には女性が 虐げられている —

• The challenge we have now is to get away from that, understand where the majority is,

国や地域があるのを

• And that is very clearly shown in this question.

みんな知っています

• We asked, what is the percentage of the world's one-year-old children

学校をやめさせられて しまいます

• who have got those basic vaccines against measles and other things that we have had for many years: 20, 50 or 80 percent?

酷い話です

• Now, this is what the U.S. public and the Swedish answered.

しかし世界の大部分では

• Look at the Swedish result: you know what the right answer is.

今や 女子も

• Who the heck is a professor of global health in that country?

男子と同じくらい

• Well, it's me. It's me.

学校に通っているんです

• It's very difficult, this. It's very difficult.

これは男女格差が 解消された —

• However, Ola's approach to really measure what we know made headlines

ということではありません

• And CNN published these results on their web and they had the questions there,

女性は依然大きな 制限に直面しています

しかし就学に関しては 同等になっているんです

• "I bet no member of the media passed the test," he said.

皆さんは最悪のところを

• So Ola told me, "Take these devices. You are invited to media conferences.

基準に答えていて

• Give it to them and measure what the media know."

多数派を見落としているんです

• And ladies and gentlemen, for the first time, the informal results from a conference with U.S. media.

貧困はどうでしょう ？

• And then, lately, from the European Union media.

貧困がほとんど 半分になっているのは

• You see, the problem is not that people don't read and listen to the media.

明白な事実です

• The problem is that the media doesn't know themselves.

アメリカで正しく答えたのは

たった5%です

• Yes, I have an idea, but first, I'm so sorry that you were beaten by the chimps.

皆さんはどうでしょう？

• Fortunately, I will be able to comfort you by showing why it was not your fault, actually.

ほぼチンパンジーに 並びましたね

• Then, I will equip you with some tricks for beating the chimps in the future. That's basically what I will do.

(笑) (拍手)

• But first, let's look at why are we so ignorant, and it all starts in this place.

ほんの少しだけ 負けています

• It's Hudiksvall. It's a city in northern Sweden.

先入観があるんです

• It's a neighborhood where I grew up, and it's a neighborhood with a large problem.

豊かな国の人たちは

• Actually, it has exactly the same problem which existed in all the neighborhoods where you grew up as well.

貧困は決してなくならない と思っています

• It was not representative. Okay? It gave me a very biased view of how life is on this planet.

そうでしょうとも

• So this is the first piece of the ignorance puzzle. We have a personal bias

何が起きているか 知らないんですから

• We have all different experiences from communities and people we meet

未来を考えるには

• And on top of this, we start school, and we add the next problem.

まず現在を知ることです

• Well, I like schools, but teachers tend to teach outdated worldviews,

これはギャップマインダー財団で 取り組んでいる

• because they learned something when they went to school, and now they describe this world to the students without any bad intentions,

「無知解消プロジェクト」 試行フェーズの

• and those books, of course, that are printed are outdated in a world that changes.

最初の質問のいくつかです

• And there is really no practice to keep the teaching material up to date.

このプロジェクトは去年

• So that's what we are focusing on. So we have these outdated facts added on top of our personal bias.

私の上司であり息子でもある オーラ・ロスリングが始めました (笑)

• What happens next is news, okay?

彼は共同創立者 兼 理事です

• An excellent journalist knows how to pick the story that will make headlines, and people will read it because it's sensational.

人々の甚だしい無知と 戦うには

• Unusual events are more interesting, no? And they are exaggerated, and especially things we're afraid of

もっと系統的に 取り組まねばならない —

• A shark attack on a Swedish person will get headlines for weeks in Sweden.

と彼は考えました

• So these three skewed sources of information were really hard to get away from.

試行段階ですでに 多くの人の答えは

• They kind of bombard us and equip our mind with a lot of strange ideas

ランダムな回答よりずっと悪いことが 明らかになりました

• and on top of it we put the very thing that makes us humans, our human intuition.

先入観について もっと知らねばなりません

• It was good in evolution. It helped us generalize and jump to conclusions very, very fast.

大きな先入観の１つは

• It helped us exaggerate what we were afraid of, and we seek causality where there is none

世界の所得分布に 関するものです

• And we then get an illusion of confidence where we believe that we are the best car drivers, above the average

これは1975年の所得分布で

• Everybody answered that question, "Yeah, I drive cars better."

それぞれの所得層に属する 人数を示しています

• Okay, this was good evolutionarily, but now when it comes to the worldview

ここは １日１ドル —

• It is the exact reason why it's upside down.

(拍手)

• The trends that are increasing are instead falling, and the other way around

ここ １日１ドルのところに

• And in this case, the chimps use our intuition against us, and it becomes our weakness instead of our strength.

１つコブがあり

• It was supposed to be our strength, wasn't it?

10ドルと100ドルの間に

• So how do we solve such problems?

もう１つコブがあります

• First, we need to measure it, and then we need to cure it.

世界は２グループに 分かれていました

• So by measuring it we can understand what is the pattern of ignorance.

フタコブラクダの世界です

• We started the pilot last year, and now we're pretty sure that we will encounter a lot of ignorance across the whole world

貧しい人々と 豊かな人々がいて

• And the idea is really to scale it up to all domains or dimensions of global development

その中間は あまりいませんでした

• such as climate, endangered species, human rights, gender equality, energy, finance.

それがどう変わったか 見てください

• All different sectors have facts, and there are organizations trying to spread awareness about these facts

時を進めていくと

• So I've started actually contacting some of them, like WWF and Amnesty International and UNICEF

世界の人口は増えていき

• And asking them, what are your favorite facts which you think the public doesn't know?

２つのコブが １つになっていきます

• Okay, I gather those facts. Imagine a long list with, say, 250 facts

左のコブが右のコブと一緒になり

• And then we poll the public and see where they score worst.

フタコブラクダが消えて

• So we get a shorter list with the terrible results, like some few examples from Hans

ヒトコブラクダになりました

• And we have no problem finding these kinds of terrible results

貧困層の割合は 減っていますが

• Okay, this little shortlist, what are we going to do with it?

依然として

• Well, we turn it into a knowledge certificate, a global knowledge certificate, which you can use

大変な数の人が 極貧生活をしています

• If you're a large organization, a school, a university, or maybe a news agency, to certify yourself as globally knowledgeable.

ほぼ10億という人が このグループに属していますが

• Basically meaning, we don't hire people who score like chimpanzees.

それもなくすことが できるはずです

• Of course you shouldn't. So maybe 10 years from now

今の我々の問題は

• If this project succeeds, you will be sitting in an interview having to fill out this crazy global knowledge.

頭を切り換え 大多数が何かを理解することです

• So now we come to the practical tricks. How are you going to succeed?

それはこの質問に 明確に現れています

• There is, of course, one way, which is to sit down late nights and learn all the facts by heart by reading all these reports.

「はしかなどの 基本的なワクチンを接種する

• That will never happen, actually.

「はしかなどの 基本的なワクチンを接種する

• Not even Hans thinks that's going to happen.

１歳児の割合は どれくらいか？」

• People don't have that time. People like shortcuts, and here are the shortcuts.

１歳児の割合は どれくらいか？」

• We need to turn our intuition into strength again. We need to be able to generalize.

20%か50%か80%か？

• So now I'm going to show you some tricks where the misconceptions are turned around into rules of thumb.

アメリカ人とスウェーデン人の答えです

スウェーデン人の答で

• You heard it. You thought it yourself. The other way to think is, most things improve.

正しい答えが どれか分かりますね ？

• So you're sitting with a question in front of you and you're unsure.

(笑)

• You should guess "improve." Okay? Don't go for the worse.

あの国じゃいったい誰が 世界保健を教えてるんでしょうか？

ああ 私でした

• That was the first one.

(笑)

• There are rich and poor and the gap is increasing. It's a terrible inequality.

すごく難しいんですって

• Yeah, it's an unequal world, but when you look at the data, it's one hump.

(拍手)

• Okay? If you feel unsure, go for "the most people are in the middle."

我々が知っていることを測定する というオーラの試みは

ニュースでも取り上げられ

• Now, the next preconceived idea is first countries and people need to be very, very rich

こうした結果が CNNのサイトで紹介され

• to get the social development like girls in school and be ready for natural disasters.

そこで何百万という人が 質問に答え

• No, no, no. That's wrong.

２千くらいのコメントが 寄せられました

• Look: that huge hump in the middle already have girls in school.

その１つがこれ

• So if you are unsure, go for the "the majority already have this

「マスメディアの人間は誰も この試験に通らないだろうよ」

• Like electricity and girls in school, these kinds of things.

それでオーラが言いました 「マスメディアの会議に

• They're only rules of thumb, so of course they don't apply to everything, but this is how you can generalize.

招待されてることだし

• Let's look at the last one. If something, yes, this is a good one, sharks are dangerous.

マスメディア関係者に これを聞いてみたらいい」

• Nowell, yes, but they are not so important in the global statistics, that is what I'm saying.

皆さん 披露します

• I actually, I'm very afraid of sharks.

これがアメリカの

• So as soon as I see a question about things I'm afraid of, which might be earthquakes, other religions

マスメディア関係の 会議での結果です

• Maybe I'm afraid of terrorists or sharks, anything that makes me feel, assume you're going to exaggerate the problem.

こちらは最近あった EUの マスメディア関係の会議での結果です

• That's a rule of thumb. Of course there are dangerous things that are also great. Sharks kill very, very few.

(笑)

• That's how you should think.

問題は人々が

• With these four rules of thumb, you could probably answer better than the chimps, because the chimps cannot do this.

ニュースを見ないこと ではありません

• They cannot generalize these kinds of rules.

マスメディアの人間自身が 知らないんですから

• And hopefully we can turn your world around and we're going to beat the chimps. Okay?

どうしたものだろうね オーラ？

• That's a systematic approach.

何か考えはあるかい？

• Now the question, is this important?

(拍手)

• Yeah, it's important to understand poverty, extreme poverty and how to fight it, and how to bring girls in school

(オーラ・ロスリング) 考えはありますが その前に一言

• When we realize that actually it's succeeding, we can understand it.

チンパンジーに負けた皆さん お気の毒さまでした

• But is it important for everyone else who cares about the rich end of this scale?

それが皆さんのせいでは ないことを示して

• I would say yes, extremely important, for the same reason.

安心させてあげましょう

• If you have a fact-based worldview of today

それから将来 チンパンジーに勝てるよう

• You might have a chance to understand what's coming next in the future.

秘訣をお教えします

• We're going back to these two humps in 1975.

それが今日 お話しすることです

• That's when I was born, and I selected the West.

まず 我々はなぜこんなにも 無知なのかですが —

• That's the current EU countries and North America.

それは ここに始まります

• Let's now see how the rest and the West compares in terms of how rich you are.

フーディクスヴァル スウェーデン北部の町で

• These are the people who can afford to fly abroad with an airplane for a vacation.

私が育った場所です

• In 1975, only 30 percent of them lived outside EU and North America.

この界隈には 大きな問題があり

• But this has changed, okay? So first, let's look at the change up till today, 2014.

実際まったく同じ問題が

• Today it's 50/50. The Western domination is over, as of today.

皆さんの育った 界隈にもあります

• That's nice. So what's going to happen next? Do you see the big hump? Did you see how it moved?

皆さんの育った 界隈にもあります

• I did a little experiment. I went to the IMF, International Monetary Fund, website.

それは典型でない ということです

• They have a forecast for the next five years of GDP per capita.

育った環境により 世の中がどんなものかについて

• So I can use that to go five years into the future, assuming the income inequality of each country is the same.

すごく偏った考えが 身につくんです

• I did that, but I went even further.

これが無知の問題の 第一の要因です

• I used those five years for the next 20 years with the same speed, just as an experiment what might actually happen.

個人的な偏見です

• Let's move into the future. In 2020, it's 57 percent in the rest.

私たちは住む社会や 出会う人に応じて

• In 2025, 63 percent. 2030, 68. And in 2035, the West is outnumbered in the rich consumer market.

みんな異なる体験をします

• These are just projections of GDP per capita into the future.

その上で学校に 通うようになりますが

• Seventy-three percent of the rich consumers are going to live outside North America and Europe.

それが次の要因になります

• So yes, I think it's a good idea for a company to use this certificate to make sure to make fact- based decisions in the future.

私は学校が好きですが

• Thank you very much. (Applause)

教師というのは 古くなった知識を教えがちです

I'm going to ask you three multiple choice questions. Use this device. Use this device to answer.