In psychology, what Russell described is more popularly known as the Dunning-Kruger effect.

世界のすべての問題

This effect finds that people who are bad at something tend to believe that they're actually good at it and people who are good at something tend to believe that they are bad at it.

愚か者や狂信者は自分自身を確信している、

Elderly people who believe they're better drivers than most are actually four times more likely to make unsafe driving error.

賢明な人たちは疑心暗鬼に陥っている。

Gun owners who think they're highly knowledgeable about gun safety score the lowest on tests about gun safety.

心理学では、ラッセルは次のように述べている。

Medical lab workers who rate themselves as highly competent in their jobs are actually the worst at their jobs.

ダニング＝クルーガー効果として知られている。

The lowest performing college students dramatically overestimate their performance on exams.

この効果は、何かが苦手な人ほど、その何かが得意になるというものである。

The lowest performers in a debate competition wildly overestimate how well they do.

自分たちはそれが得意なんだと思いがちだ、

People with the unhealthiest lifestyle habits rate themselves as far healthier than they actually are.

何か得意なことがある人

People who score poorly on cognitive reasoning and analytical thinking tests severely overestimate their cognitive and analytical abilities.

自分たちは下手だと思いがちだ。

But why does this happen?

自分の方が運転がうまいと思っている高齢者

To understand, let's break knowledge down into four quadrants.

So there are known-knowns, things that we know that we know, like I know I know how to ride a bike.

の4倍も多い。

There are known-unknowns, things that we know that we don't know.

危険な運転ミスを犯す。

For example, I have no fucking clue how quantum physics works.

自分は知識が豊富だと思い込んでいる銃所有者たち

And then there are unknown-known, things that you forgot, you knew or you don't realize that, you know, like you still remember how to drive to the supermarket from your childhood home. You just forgot that you knew that.

銃の安全性に関するテストでは最低点。自分自身を評価する臨床検査技師

And then there are unknow-unknown, stuff that you don't know that you don't know.

仕事の能力が高い

When we are an amateur at something, we are very aware of the things that we know we know, and we're completely oblivious to the things that we don't know.

が実は一番仕事ができない。成績最下位の大学生

Let's use basketball as an example.

試験での成績を大幅に過大評価する。

If you know nothing about basketball, it seems simple enough.

ディベート大会で最下位の成績

You throw a ball into the net, you know what you know, and don't know what you don't know.

自分たちの実力を過大評価している。

But as you start to learn more about basketball, you discover that there are a lot of nuances;

最も不健康な生活習慣を持つ人々

how you shoot the ball, the mechanics of your elbow, wrist and forearm, how you position the ball in your hand,

実際よりもはるかに健康であると評価する。

understanding the different shots: a fadeaway, a jumper, a layup, a finger roll, an alley-oop.

認知的推論が苦手な人

You're beginning to become aware of all the things you don't know, and there's a lot that you don't know.

分析的思考テスト

Let's say you spend another year working on basketball, you've mastered a bunch of different shots and learned to shoot with good form.

自分の認知能力を著しく過大評価している

Now you're getting into the weeds of defensive schemes, hand checking, picks and rolls, setting various kinds of screens.

と分析能力。

At this point, you're no longer even thinking about your shooting form or how to hit a free throw.

しかし、なぜこのようなことが起こるのか？

You've forgotten you know this stuff, it's unconscious, it's automatic. It's the stuff you know, but you forgot you know, and there's a ton of it.

理解するために、知識を分解してみよう。

As you can see, the difference between an amateur and a professional is that an amateur's knowledge is known to them, therefore, they get to feel smart about it.

を4つの象限に分けている。

But an expert, so much of their knowledge is either unconscious and automatic or its knowledge of what they still need to learn.

だから、既知のことがある、

Another way to visualize this shift is to think of knowledge as a circle.

私たちが知っていることを、私たちは知っている、

The area within the circle is what you know about a topic, and the border is the horizon of your knowledge or everything that you're aware of that you don't know yet.

自転車の乗り方は知っている。

This border is what determines our uncertainty or doubt.

未知の部分がある、

Interestingly, as the size of your circle grows larger, the horizon of your knowledge also grows larger; the more you know, the more you know that you don't know.

私たちが知っているようで知らないこと。

But something else happens as well as you gain knowledge. As you implement information and it becomes automatic, you forget that you know it.

例えば、私は何も分かっていない。

So there's a second border inside the first, this smaller circle is everything that you've forgotten you know.

量子物理学の仕組みそして、未知の既知のものがある、

So not only is the experts horizon of doubt much longer, most of their knowledge is also unconscious.

忘れていたこと

They forgot that they know it because it strikes them as so obvious and immediate why even think about it.

The idiot thinks he knows everything because he literally doesn't have enough knowledge to know better.

あるいは、自分が知っていることに気づいていない、

Meanwhile, the expert thinks he knows nothing because he is so aware of all the ways in which he may be wrong.

まだ運転の仕方を覚えているように

Now I know what you're probably doing right now.

子供の頃の家からスーパーマーケットまで、あなたはそれを知っていたことを忘れているだけだ。

It's probably the same thing I did and most people do when they learn about the Dunning-Kruger effect, you think to yourself, "What a bunch of fucking idiots."

そして、未知の未知がある、

Good thing (is) I know about this Dunning-Kruger effect thing because you know, I'm super aware of all my flaws that makes me like an expert at fucking everything.

あなたが知らないことを、あなたが知らないことを。

So this is the tricky thing about learning about cognitive biases.

私たちが素人であるとき

We would like to think that because we're aware of all the ways our mind fucks up that we are somehow immune to those fuck ups.

私たちは、自分が知っていることをとてもよく理解している。

But once again, we are so wrong because again and again, research has shown that educating people about their cognitive biases doesn't really make them any less susceptible to cognitive biases.

私たちはまったく気づいていない

And that is the most frustrating thing about the Dunning-Kruger effect.

私たちが知らないことに。

It is so hard to overcome both in others, but also in ourselves because here's the thing, they're called blind spots for a reason.

バスケットボールを例にしてみよう。

You can't fucking see them.

バスケットボールのことを何も知らないなら、

How do you fix something that you can't see in yourself?

簡単なことのように思える。

This is the paradox of trying to overcome our own ignorance.

ネットにボールを投げ入れる、

The very thing that would help us see our mistakes is exactly what would prevent us from making them in the first place.

知っていることは知っているが、知らないことは知らない。

Part of the problem is that there is a comfort in the feeling of knowing. People don't like uncertainty, settling on a belief, whether it's true or not is a way to resolve anxiety within ourselves.

しかし、バスケットボールのことをもっと知るようになると

So our minds often default to believing things even if we don't have a whole lot of evidence for them.

ニュアンスの違いがたくさんあることに気づくだろう。

And unfortunately, ripping on people for being fucking stupid doesn't really help the situation either.

シュートの打ち方、肘、手首、前腕の力学、

Anybody who's gotten in a dumbass argument and comment threads can tell you this from experience.

どのようにボールを手の中に置くか、

Again and again, psychology has shown that when people's beliefs are challenged, they don't change their minds, they actually get more rigid and defensive.

So what are we supposed to do?

さまざまなショットを理解する

Well, starting with ourselves, I think it's an important practice to perhaps hold fewer opinions or at least hold them less strongly.

フェードアウェイ、ジャンパー、レイアップ、フィンガーロール、アリーウープ。

This means being less emotionally attached to our beliefs.

あなたは気づき始めている

In other words, I think there's a lot to say for humility.

知らないことばかり

When you see something online that is upsetting or angering or frustrating, instead of jumping to conclusions about that person or that cause, maybe sit back and say, "I don't know."

What the fuck am I saying? You guys aren't gonna do that.

そして、あなたが知らないことがたくさんある。

Let's be honest.

もう1年、バスケットボールに打ち込んだとしよう。

You know, last year I created an online course that helped people challenge their own beliefs.

様々なショットをマスターしている

It helped people figure out how to hold opinions a little bit more softly but funny, funny thing.

そして、良いフォームで撃つことを学んだ。

Nobody fucking took the course.

今、あなたはディフェンス・スキームの泥沼に入り込んでいる、

You know, for some reason, there wasn't a ton of demand for that and not to mention it's fucking hard to market.

ハンドチェック

Like how do you market a thing to people that's gonna make them feel wrong about everything they believe in their life.

ピックとロール、

That's not exactly like the most enticing sales pitch.

各種スクリーンの設定

But if for some reason you want to take that course, you can find the link in the description.

この時点で、あなたはもはや

Good fucking luck.

シュートフォームを考える

So when it comes to other people, I think one of the hard truths that I've had to swallow over the years is that you can't really change the mind of somebody who's not willing to have their mind change.

フリースローの打ち方とかね。

You can throw as much data and statistics and logical arguments at them.

忘れているのか、こんなことを、

But they're just gonna like Nin jitsu that shit, you know, pull a Neo in the Matrix and all the bullets are gonna get by him.

無意識のうちに、自動的に。

I think this is because most people's beliefs are not based on logic or reason.

知っているようで、忘れていたことだ。

Most people's beliefs are based on identity and group affiliation.

そして、その量は膨大だ。

And so when you show them contradicting data, their thought process isn't, "Oh, I need to update my prior assumptions about the world."

ご覧の通りだ、アマチュアとプロの違い

Their thought process is like, "I'm being attacked. My tribe is being attacked."

というのは、アマチュアの知識が彼らに知れ渡っているからだ、

You know, many years ago, I used to coach people and one of the reasons I fucking stopped coaching people is because it was often very frustrating.

だから、彼らはそれで賢くなった気分になれる。

Somebody would hire me for a week or we do like a monthly call or something.

しかし、専門家は、彼らの知識の多くを

And it just felt like I was like beating my head against the wall.

無意識のうちに自動的に

Like I was telling them the same thing over and over and over again.

あるいは、まだ学ぶべきことがあるという知識だ。

Usually like deep, profound truths don't sink in for people the first time.

It's almost like you plant the seed in their head and then they need to go live for another year or two for that idea of the sprout.

このシフトを視覚化する別の方法

It's almost like we have to be in the right environment or context or be going through the right phase of our journey for those seeds to sprout.

知識を円として考えることだ。

So one thing that has helped me a lot in my own relationships and just fucking tolerating all the nonsense that goes on in the world is understanding that I'm not here to change minds necessarily, I'm here to plant seeds.

円内の領域は、トピックについてあなたが知っていることです。

I'm here to drop an idea or an argument.

国境はあなたの知識の地平線

So that one day if that person becomes fertile ground, that seed can sprout.

あるいは、あなたがまだ知らないことに気づいているすべてのこと。

The most impactful things usually don't sink in right away. They usually need like a few weeks or months or even a couple of years to like incubate in a person's head.

この境界線が、私たちの不安や疑念を決定する。

And when I look at my own life, this also feels true like there were things that people told me in my teens that I didn't fully appreciate until my twenties or thirties or hell, even almost 40.

興味深いことに、サークルの規模が大きくなればなるほど

Ultimately, I think humility is one of the most underrated values in our world right now.

知識の視野も広がる。

On the internet, people are rewarded for false confidence, people are rewarded for being bold.

People are rewarded for being zealots and fanatics about things.

知れば知るほど、知らないことが増えていく。

But while the algorithms may reward bluster and bullshit, the real world doesn't.

しかし、知識を得ることで別のことも起こる、

Life is really fucking difficult and complicated and most of us don't really know what we're doing most of the time.

So any sense of false certainty is really just gonna cause more pain than necessary.

情報を実行に移し、それが自動的に行われるようになる、

I think what the Dunning-Kruger effect really teaches us is that humility is actually very practical.

あなたはそれを知っていることを忘れている、

By intentionally underestimating our own understanding of things, not only do we open ourselves up to learn and grow more, but we also prevent ourselves from just being a fucking narcissistic ass face on the internet.

だから、最初のボーダーの内側に2つ目のボーダーがある。

That is of course, until we decide that I'm the most humble person you ever met. Man, I'm so fucking humble, you wouldn't believe it.

この小さな円がすべてだあなたが知っていることを忘れていることを。 だから、専門家の疑念の地平はずっと長くなる。

Everybody thinks they're humble, but I'm really humble like I've got this humility shit down.

彼らの知識のほとんどは無意識的なものだ、

They should bottle it up and put that shit on eBay because I'm gonna make a fucking killing.

彼らはそれを知っていることを忘れている

Humility (is) like off the charts. You can't even see, you can't even see how high it is up there, man.

なぜなら、それは彼らにとって、とても明白で即物的なことだからだ、

Camera doesn't go that high.

なぜそんなことを考えるのか？

It's that humble, that fucking humble.

バカは何でも知っていると思っている

And as you can see, now we're back to square one.

なぜなら、彼は文字どおり十分ではないからだ