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  • There's a saying in the markets he who lives by the crystal balls he who lives

  • by crystal ball is destined to a ground glass.

  • Okay. What I mean is.

  • What you don't know is very important relative to what you do now.

  • And for that reason, understanding how to properly balance and diversify your

  • portfolio. And that diversification should be

  • countries, currencies and asset classes is something that's important for most

  • investors. To make tactical decisions is not going

  • to be the best thing they can do. They're going to do that badly.

  • And and when you come to conferences like this, you will get different points

  • of view. But unless you actually have a system

  • and you maxing out and we put hundreds of millions of dollars, lots of money,

  • maybe $1,000,000,000, I don't know, into doing a technology, and so what to try

  • to get an edge. So number one is respect what you don't

  • know and know how to diversify. Well, because diversifying allows you to

  • reduce your risk by up to 80% without reducing your income, without your

  • reducing expected return. If you know how to do that, well, okay,

  • then I think then what you have to do is you have to look at the relative appeal

  • of the asset classes. So when I go through that calculation,

  • the relative cash now has a relatively attractive

  • appeal. You know, I was sort of people when I

  • said cash is trash and that got a lot of attention, but that's when cash was

  • nil. Okay.

  • Now, when you look at the expected returns for this moment, cash is a

  • relatively attractive asset class at this moment.

  • It's not just attractive because it has a relatively decent, decent night rate,

  • but decent expect. In other words, it has something like a

  • one and a half percent real return. Okay, not bad and not bad in comparison

  • to the other things. And it doesn't have price risk, so it

  • looks relatively attractive. But let me follow let me complete the

  • answer before you guess. I say you're pulling at the bit.

  • And but then also, I think in this environment and given the whole picture

  • of all the things at work, there are three things that I look at as to where

  • where to invest. I want

  • sound finances. So I look at income statements and

  • balance sheets of countries. I want to invest in countries that where

  • they earn more than they spend and they have good, well, more assets and

  • liabilities. Okay.

  • Second, I don't want to have where there's a lot of internal conflict,

  • because the internal conflict is very dangerous.

  • Last question, Ray, What comes next for radio?

  • There was speculation about going back to to Bridgewater, Would you?

  • That is not going to happen. But wrong.

  • But by the way, don't trust the media. I mean, I do attest to that.

  • I mean, I've read a lot of people get along with that.

  • But I would just note on my own fund. Other than that.

  • No, no, no. I'm not creating.

  • Okay. I am I have

  • a family office that manages family and foundation funds.

  • Okay. And I'm doing that.

  • And what is what comes next? I'm at a phase in my life where it's

  • very natural. I'm 74 years old and I'm not.

  • The most important thing for me is to pass along everything okay, To pass

  • along some of the knowledge and principles that I've learned over a

  • period of time, which is why I'm doing this, why I'm writing the books and so

  • on, and to pass along the wealth and to pass along other things and pass along

  • Bridgewater. What a joy it's been to start it now in

  • this two bedroom apartment and 47 years later, to build this extended family and

  • these wonderful people who are very, very capable, you know them and, and to

  • have them, this next generation flourish and be a bit of a mentor to them.

  • What a joy that is. And so my objective is to do that.

  • My son gave me a book by Joseph Campbell called Hero of Thousand Pieces and says,

  • There's a lie part and there's a part in your life journey when you're.

  • There are three phases in life. The first phase where you're learning

  • and you're dependent on others kids, they go to school and so on.

  • Second phase of one's life is your working and others depend on you and

  • you're trying to be successful. And then there's a transition to your

  • third phase. And in that third transition, he

  • described it, and I instinctually feel it.

  • There's there's what he called the passing of the moon.

  • Now, what is the moon? I didn't know what the moon was To the

  • moon is what you've acquired that are the gifts that you've acquired over that

  • period of time. So I'm now in that phase and I'm going

  • to put out one more book, Economic Investment Principles, and then I'm

  • going to be done with that phase. And so that's where I am.

  • I'm savoring life with, you know, my family, the things I like to do, and

  • that's where I am.

There's a saying in the markets he who lives by the crystal balls he who lives

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Dalio: Cash Is No Longer Trash

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    逗狗樂dogooro-com に公開 2023 年 10 月 21 日
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