2023

CALLING IT A, QUOTE, MASSIVE

OPPORTUNITY.

WEDBUSH STAR ANALYST DAN IVES

JOINS US AT POST NINE.

GOOD TO HAVE YOU HERE.

HERE IS THE SITUATION, OKAY.

I'VE GOT TWO THINGS GOING ON

I GOT DAN IVES, RIGHT, THE STAR

ANALYST THAT WE SAY, SUGGESTING

THAT THIS STOCK IS STILL UNDER

APPRECIATED AS AN OPPORTUNITY

THAT IT IS AN OUTPERFORM, BUT

THEN I GOT THE COMPANY'S CEO

HIMSELF, SATYA NADELLA, WHO A

COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO SAID THE

NEXT TWO YEARS ARE GOING TO BE

TOUGH.

IVES HAS AN OUTPERFORM

NADELLA HAS A HOLD

WHY SHOULD I LISTEN TO IVES AND

NOT NADELLA?

>> YEAH, AND NADELLA OBVIOUSLY

HALL OF FAME CEO AND PART OF OUR

BILLISH

BULLISH THESIS ON MICROSOFT.

WHAT IS INTERESTING TO ME IN

TERMS OF ALL OF OUR CHECKS OVER

THE LAST WEEK, WE'RE ONLY SEEING

ABOUT 6% TO 7% OF DEALS REALLY

PUSH OR GET DOWNSIZED AND BY

LOOK AT THE LAST QUARTER, 3% TO

4%

IN MY VIEW THIS BECOMES MORE AND

MORE OF A CLOUD PLAY, LESS OF A

PC CALL NONCLAUDOUD AS WE GO IN

NEXT YEAR.

I VIEW THIS AS A SIGNIFICANT

RISK REWARD HIRE.

>> THE REASON INVESTORS HAVE

AGREED WITH YOU, THEY SAID IT IS

A CLOUD PLAY, FOR AZURE.

BY VIRTUE OF THE FACT THEY'RE

WILLING TO PAY A HIGH PREMIUM

VALUATION TO THE MARKET FOR THIS

WHOLE TIME

BUT NOW AZURE GROWTH IS SLOWING.

WHY SHOULD I PAY ANYWHERE CLOSE

TO A MULTIPLE I WAS PAYING

BEFORE AND NOW I KNOW THE

MULTIPLE HAS COME IN, BUT YOU

CAN SAY IT IS EXPENSIVE RELATIVE

TO WHERE THE MARKET IS.

>> IT IS A GREAT DEBATE.

MY VIEW IS IF THIS IS ULTIMATELY

AZURE GROWTH THAT WE CAN SEE

ABOVE 30% IN LOW SINGLE DIGIT IT

SPENDING ENVIRONMENT

WHAT I BELIEVE IS STILL IF YOU

LOOK AT THE AVERAGE MICROSOFT

INSTALL BASE, WE'RE STILL FOUR

OF EVERY TEN OF SIGNIFICANT MOVE

TO THE CLOUD, MOST OPPORTUNITIES

AHEAD, NOT BEHIND.

AND ALSO, MORE AND MORE

AGGRESSIVE, LOOK AT OPEN AI,

MORE OF THESE AGGRESSIVE BETS,

ACTIVISION, NOT A COMPANY THAT

IS GOING TO THE RIGHT LANE.

>> BUT WHEN THE CEO HIMSELF SAID

WHAT HE DID, YOU WEREN'T MOVED

BY THAT AT ALL IN.

>> NADELLA IS A TACTICIAN, THE

GOLD STANDARD IN MY OPINION.

AND WHAT I THINK HE'S DOING,

WHICH IS IMPORTANT, LAY THE

GROUND WORK FOR A TOUGHER

ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW

YEARS.

BUT IN REDMOND IN THE WALLS OF

REDMOND, THIS IS NOT A COMPANY

THAT IS ACTING DEFENSIVE

SO NADELLA IS TALKING ABOUT

THAT, BUT ULTIMATELY IN TERMS OF

THE PLAYBOOK, THEY'RE GOING ON

THE OFFENSE, NOT JUST IN TERMS

OF M & A, BUT FROM A CLOUD

PERSPECTIVE, THEY'RE GOING TO

GET MORE SHARE VERSUS AMAZON AND

SOME OF THE COMPETITORS.

>> WHAT ABOUT THIS SAID $10

BILLION INVESTMENT WE'RE TALKING

ABOUT.

>> I LOVE IT, IT IS A SMART

STRATEGIC POKER MOVE

IN MY OPINION, YOU GO BACK TO

THE LATE 90s, ANTITRUST,

UNCERTAIN MACRO, THEY PEELED

BACK

HERE YOU WANT TO GO AGGRESSIVE

IN ONE OF THE BEST MOST

INNOVATIVE AI TECHNOLOGIES OUT

THERE.

THEY ALREADY INVESTED IN IT.

TAKE A STEP BACK NOW

I BELIEVE AI IS NADELLA,

MICROSOFT, REDMOND.

>> DO YOU THINK THAT, WE

REFERENCED THIS SOME 43 OR 44

MINUTES AGO, ABOUT THE LAGGARDS

OF '22 EMERGING IN THE BEGINNING

OF 2023 AS SOME OF THE WINNERS

YOU THINK THAT'S LEGIT FOR SOME

OF THE COMPANIES LIKE MICROSOFT,

SALESFORCE, FOR EXAMPLE, LOSERS

THAT ARE WINNERS RIGHT NOW

DOES THAT HAVE SOME KIND OF

STAYING POWER OR THAT A MEAN

REVERSION, SHORT-LIVED, WHAT IS

YOUR VIEW?

>> I THINK IT IS A GREAT POINT

IN TERMS OF THE ENTERPRISE

YOU LOOK AT ENTERPRISE CLOUD

THAT IS WHERE I BELIEVE IT GOING

TO BE A LOT MORE RESILIENT IN

THE SPENDING ENVIRONMENT

TALKING TO INVESTORS EVERY DAY,

IN 2023, EVERYONE IS, OKAY,

WHERE ARE THE NUMBERS I CAN

STRESS TEST?

NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN, BUT A

LOT IS BAKED INTO VALUATION

WHERE I BELIEVE THE GROWTH IS

GOING TO BE, CONSUMER, DIGITAL,

OTHER AREAS, YOU CAN HAVE

ANOTHER LEG DOWN

THAT'S WHY I THINK IN TERMS OF

WHAT HAS HAPPENED IN MICROSOFT,

LOOK AT SALESFORCE AND BENIOFF,

THOSE ARE TWO OF OUR TOP PICKS,

RISK REWARD.

>> TOM LEE YESTERDAY, I THINK

YESTERDAY, TOLD ME SITTING WHERE

YOU ARE, HE THINKS FAANG COULD

BE UP 50%.

I NEAR FELL OUT OF MY CHAIR.

IS THAT SOMETHING ON YOUR RADAR

TOO?

ARE WE GOING TO HAVE A BIG

BOUNCEBACK FOR FAANG

>> I THINK IT IS GOING TO BE A

MASSIVE BOUNCEBACK AND TECH

STOCKS OVERALL UP 20% AND BIG

TECH UP ABOVE THAT BECAUSE IT IS

MY VIEW THAT FUNDAMENTALS ARE

GOING TO HOLD UP BETTER THAN

BEING BAKED IN, WHISPER NUMBERS

10% TO 15% BELOW THE STREET.

YOU LOOK

IF YOU LOOK AT OVERALL TECH, I

BELIEVE NOW IT IS UNDEROWNED AS

I'VE SEEN TECH, GOING BACK TO

2009 AND MAYBE 2002.

>> BETTER HOPE EARPINEARNINGS WE

DECENT

WHAT IF THE COMMENTARY IS DOUR

LIKE NADELLA WAS.

>> IF IT IS JUST DOWNRIGHT

DISASTER, HORRIFIC, OKAY, THAT'S

NOT BAKED INTO -- THEY CUT

GUIDANCE 15%, 20%.

RIGHT NOW, YOU START TOO HAVE

SOME SORT OF MODEST EXPECTATIONS

WITH SOME DARKENING AND FX PLAYS

AN ISSUE, WE SIT HERE IN EARLY

TO MID-FEBRUARY BEING, LIKE, BIG

TECH BOUNCE 15% THROUG