字幕表 動画を再生する 英語字幕をプリント YEAR AND IF WE GET ONE, IT COULD CREATE ETFs AND MARKETS, WE'LL BRING IN GILBERT GARCIA MANAGING PARTNER. CNBC CONTRIBUTOR I KIND OF JOKED THE OTHER DAY, GILBERT, 5% RETURN MEANING 5% IS THE NEW 25%, SHOULD WE FEEL GOOD ABOUT THAT >> I THINK WE SHOULD BUT I'LL TELL YA WHAT, BONDS MAY BE DOWN BUT NOT OUT. WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE OLD 60/40 SPLIT THERE IS NO DOUBT THE 60/40 SPLIT IS PROBABLY THE WORST IN 50 YEARS BUT I THINK WHEN YOU LOOK AT THOSE TIME PERIODS WHEN IT'S DONE POORLY, IT TYPICALLY WAS FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PERFORMANCE AND THAT'S WHAT WE SEE NEXT YEAR. >> YEAH, YOU PROBABLY HEARD MY COMMENTS I AM ONLY HALF JOKING. WE'RE WRITING ECONOMIC HISTORY AS WE GO ON. THIS IS THE SINGLE WORST YEAR EVER FOR STOCKS AND BONDS, USUALLY ONE GOES DOWN AND THE OTHER UP THAT'S WHY EVERY FINANCIAL ADVISOR IN THE WORLD SAYS YOU HAVE TO DIVERSIFY YOUR PORTFOLIO. IT DIDN'T WORK THIS YEAR WHY NOT? >> SURE. IT SHOULDN'T BE A SURPRISE SOMETHING STRANGE WOULD HAPPEN THE REASON IS THE GOVERNMENT IS A BUYER OF LAST RESORT THAT ARTIFICIALLY BROUGHT LEVELS WAY TOO LOW. KEEP IN MIND, THE GOVERNMENT OWNS 30% OF THE TREASURIES, THE TIPS MARKET, WHICH OF COURSE INFLATION PROTECTED TREASURIES AND THE MORTGAGE BACKED SECURITIES MARKET AND THAT'S DISTORTING EVERYTHING AND DISTORTED THE RISK ALLOCATION AND THE MARKETPLACE. AND SO IF YOU GO BACK TO THE KEY FUNDAMENTALS, MONEY SUPPLY HAS GROWN AT A HISTORIC PACE FISCAL STIMULUS RIVALLED WORLD WAR II, IT WAS INDEEVITABLE THA INFLATION WOULD BE HIGHER AND LONGER THAN CHANCTRANSITORY ARE. >> PEOPLE PUSH BACK. IT'S FINE. THEY SAY IT'S COVID, WE NEEDED TO DO IT I DON'T THINK ANYBODY DISAGREED WITH THE INITIAL REACTION FROM MARCH TO SEPTEMBER OF 2020 IT WAS TERRIFYING. WE'RE UNDER OUR DESKS ON THE EAST COAST I KNOW YOU GUYS IN TEXAS JUST KIND OF DID WHAT YOU WANTED. A YEAR LATER, EVERYONE KIND OF KNEW THE STORY HALF THE COUNTRY WAS BACK TO WIDE OPEN AND THEY'RE STILL STIMULATING. >> THAT'S THE POINT. I THINK THEY HANDLED IT BRILLIANTLY DURING COVID BUT WHAT HAPPENED WAS THEY SHOULD HAVE STOPPED BUYING SECURITIES, STOPPED THE QUANTITATIVE EASING BY THE FOURTH QUARTER. BY THE FOURTH QUARTER, WE SAW INFLATION RUNNING HOT AND THE 5, 6% ACCELERATING. THEY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY STOPPED BUYING AND THEY SHOULD HAVE BEEN ALREADY RAISING RATES MUCH SOONER IN CALENDAR YEAR '22. I THINK THEY'RE MAKING THE SAME MISTAKE, BRIAN THEY KEEP LOOKING BACKWARDS AND WANT TO WAIT UNTIL EMPLOYMENT GOES HIGHER, UNEMPLOYMENT BUT BY THE TIME THAT HAPPENS, WE'RE IN PAIN IF YOU LOOK, THERE IS NO MORE FISCAL STIMULUS AND MONEY SUPPLY ISN'T NOT ONLY GROWING BUT IT'S NEGATIVE THAT'S A PRECURSOR TO A RECESSION. >> WELL, I WANT TO BE POSITIVE BUT, YOU KNOW, ALL THAT SPENDING ADDED A FEW TRILLION TO OUR NATIONAL DEBT. WE WIPED OUT $10 TRILLION FROM THE EQUITY MARKETS ALONE AND WILL PROBABLY SEE A COUPLE TRILLION WIPED OUT OF REAL ESTATE IT WILL BE LIKE A 20 OR $30 TRILLION COST. IT'S MIND BOGGLING BUT I WANT TO BE OPTIMISTIC. HAVE A HAPPY NEW YEAR. I CAN'T COUNT TO TRILLION. IT'S TOO MANY -- >> BUT THANK Y
B1 中級 米 Bonds may be down, but they're not out, says GH&A's Gilbert Garcia 9 0 WP に公開 2023 年 01 月 03 日 シェア シェア 保存 報告 動画の中の単語