More and more voices from science.

近年、科学者や環境活動家、マスコミから そんな声が増えているが

Environmental activists and the press have been saying so in recent years, but this comes as a shock to those who are fighting against nuclear energy and the problems that come with it.

原発に反対している人にとっては 衝撃的な内容だろう

So who's right?

では誰が正しいのだろう まあ、話は複雑だ

Well, it's complicated, too slow.

急激な気候変動を抑えるには、 温室効果ガスの量を正味ゼロにする必要がある

Rapid climate change, the world needs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero.

2018年、排出量の4分の3はエネルギー生産、 特に化石燃料の燃焼によって放出された

In 2018, 3 quarters of global emissions were released through energy production, namely by burning fossil fuels.

”エネルギー”は広い意味を持つ言葉で

Energy is a broad term that describes all sorts of stuff from moving things and people around to putting things big and small together or heating our homes.

モノや人を輸送したり、大小の部品を組み立てたり 自宅を暖めたり

Currently, 84% of the world's primary energy comes from fossil fuels, 33% from oil, 27% from coal and 24% from gas.

現在、世界の一次エネルギーの84％は 化石燃料に由来している

Around 10% of the global oil supply is just used to burning boilers to make our homes cozy and warm.

33％が石油、27％が石炭 24％が天然ガスだ

Only about 16% of global energy is from low emission sources, almost 7% from hydroelectric, 5% from solar wind, bioenergy wave, tidal and geothermal combined and about 4% from nuclear.

石油の約10％は屋内を快適に 温めるためだけに使われている

So we pretty much rely on coal, oil and gas to keep our civilization going, which means it's actually very hard to transition away from them to have a chance of escaping fossil fuels without throwing humanity back into the stone Age.

低排出のエネルギー源は たったの16％だ

One of the most impactful things we can do is to electrify as many sectors as possible.

水力が約7％ 太陽光・風力・バイオマス・潮力・地熱の合計で5％

Electricity is the stuff that appears like magic when you plug something into a socket.

そして約4％が原子力だ

So you can watch youtube.

文明の維持において 石炭、石油、天然ガスへの依存が強く

Every industry that can switch from burning fossil fuels to electricity needs to do so from electric cars to electric heaters.

それらと決別することは 実際には極めて困難なのだ

Why do we need to bet so hard on electricity?

石器時代に逆戻りすることなく 化石燃料から脱却するには

Because we can produce electricity with low emission technologies like solar wind or nuclear.

最も効果的なのはあらゆる部門を できるかぎり「電化」することだ

So electricity is a real lever for a radical transition.

電気は魔法のようなもので コンセントにつなげばYouTubeがみれる

But there are a few problems making this transition really hard.

化石燃料から電力に切り替えられる産業は そうすべきだ

First of all in most places in the world, electricity is still generated mostly by burning fossil fuels.

電気自動車から電気ストーブまで

And not only that in the last 20 years, the world's electricity usage increased 73% in absolute terms while we are installing renewables at record speed at the same time, the amount of fossil fuel we're burning for electricity still keeps rising year by year, renewables have so far not been able to catch up with the demand for new electricity.

なぜそこまで電気に懸けるべきなのか

And so despite our progress, emissions from electricity are still rising worldwide.

電気は風力、太陽光、原子力といった 低排出技術で作れるからだ

The other alternative to fossil fuels is nuclear.

だから電気は革新のための 真の手段となりうるのだが

And even though it's not renewable, its greenhouse gas emissions are tiny compared to burning stuff.

この以降を困難にしている問題が いくつか存在する

But in the last 20 years, nuclear has basically stagnated.

まず、ほとんどの場所で 電気は化石燃料の燃焼に由来している

Countries like China India and South Korea built new reactors.

加えて、過去20年で 世界の電力消費量は73％増加している

While Germany and Japan have been actively taking their nuclear plants offline, which seems a bit weird if we look at the countries with the most low carbon electricity in the world that get most of their juice mainly from two sources nuclear or hydro power Take France and Sweden in France only around 10% comes from fossil fuels, while 67% comes from nuclear and 23% from renewables, primarily hydro.

記録的ペースで 再生可能エネルギーを導入する一方

In Sweden, almost 30% comes from nuclear power and about 45% from hydro.

発電に投入される化石燃料も 年々増えているのだ

So we know that nuclear energy can work at scale on the technical side because of the lack of investment and innovation in the last few decades, the majority of the world's nuclear reactors are pretty old technology that's very costly to replace.

これまで再生可能エネルギーは 電力需要に追い付かず

In most Western countries, building nuclear reactors has become very expensive for a variety of reasons, like a lot of know how in constructing them, policy changes and increased regulatory constraints so it can take a decade or longer just to finish a power plant.

発電のための排出量は 世界中で増加している

In contrast, countries like South Korea, china India and Russia are able to build new nuclear reactors comparatively quickly and at a competitive cost.

残された手段は原子力だ

Still generally in the West, the current generation of nuclear power plants are more expensive to build and maintain the most fossil fuel alternatives.

再生可能ではないが 化石燃料に比べれば排出量は微々たるものだ

There are also the concerns about nuclear waste and the fear of accidents.

しかし過去20年、原発は停滞してきた

But we cover those in other videos in more detail.

中国、インド、韓国といった国々は 新規の原子炉を建設したが

We have designs for nuclear reactors that solve many of their problems, namely small reactors that take less time and money to get started.

ドイツや日本では積極的に原発を停止している

There are also next generation technologies that can already turn radioactive waste into new fuel, but so far these have not been deployed at a scale where they can have a significant impact on the nuclear sector.

それは世界で最も低排出で発電している国の

Considering these uncertainties, some argue that nuclear power is a dangerous relic of the past and that we should just let it go and focus on renewables.

電力の大半が原子力と水力なことを 踏まえると、少し奇妙に思える

But while renewables undoubtedly are the future of electricity, they still have their own huge challenges to overcome before they can take over the vast majority of the electricity grid.

フランスとスウェーデンを例にとると

The main problem is reliability and consistency.

フランスでは化石燃料は約10％に過ぎず

It's not always windy and the sun doesn't always shine, especially in the mornings and evenings when humans need the most electricity.

67％が原子力 23％が再生可能エネルギー（主に水力）だ

The variations between seasons don't make this issue easier to make renewables reliable and not risk blackouts.

スウェーデンでは約30％が原子力、 約45％が水力発電だ

We need massive storage capacities where we can save energy collected when the sun or wind are at their peak and release it later when we actually need it until this is possible.

つまり原子力の大規模利用は可能だ

Other sources of electricity needs to provide a controllable load that creates the reliability of supply that our civilization needs to run properly.

技術的な観点では 数十年にわたる投資と技術革新を怠ったツケで

Eventually, we will be able to do this with renewables.

世界の原子炉の大半は古い技術に基づいており 交換にも高い費用を要する

But we need a lot of batteries or storage power plants right now, we simply don't have the tech and the capacities to make this transition fast enough to replace fossil fuels.

欧米の多くでは 様々な理由で原子炉の新設は高額だ

But even if we could, there's another aspect, we have to take into account.

建設ノウハウの喪失、政策の変化、規制の強化で 完成に10年以上がかかりうる

We're not just trying to kick fossil fuels out of electricity.

一方、韓国、中国、インド、ロシアなどは

Were trying to replace energy with electricity.

比較的短期間、低コストで 新しい原子炉を建設することができるが

If we're going to electrify sectors that currently use fossil fuels like cards or heating, we will need significantly more electricity than we're currently using everywhere around the world.

欧米では一般的に

And if the electricity needs of the world population continued to grow as they have over the last 20 years, we'll need even more.

最新鋭の原発は、ほとんどの再生可能エネルギーより 建設・維持コストが高い

It all comes down to one thing.

また、核廃棄物や事故への不安もあるが その詳細については他の動画で

No energy source is perfect.

原子炉の問題の多くを解決する設計はすでに存在し

All have their own unique problems.

例えば小型原子炉なら 短期間・低コストで開始できる

Both renewables and nuclear energy required time investment and technological innovation on their own.

放射性廃棄物を新たな燃料として 利用できる技術もあるが

Neither is ready to remove fossil fuels from our electricity grid, although activists on both sides claim that they are in the end, the question is how we want to deal with all these challenges.

原子力産業に大きな影響を与える規模では 利用されてこなかった

Should we give up nuclear immediately and at least temporarily accept higher emissions.

種々の不確実性から

Will we try to extend the life of current nuclear reactors and shut them down afterwards while solving the shortcomings of renewables?

「原子力は危険な過去の遺物であり諦めて 再生可能エネルギーに集中すべき」という意見もある

Or will we invest in new nuclear technology to get new nuclear reactor types that are cheaper and safer or will we maybe do both.

再生可能エネルギーが 電力の未来なのは間違いないのだが

Opinion part starts here considering the risks that climate change poses for the biosphere and humanity, any technology that has a chance of contributing to a solution should be pursued.

電力網の大部分を占めるには 克服すべき大きな課題もある

That's just good risk management and strategy.

主要な問題は信頼性と安定性だ

If preventing rapid climate change as quickly as possible is our goal.

風力や日射は常時得られるわけでなく

It might be a good idea to see nuclear and renewables?

電力需要の大きい朝と夕方は特にだ

Not as opponents, but as partners, we know there's no time to waste.

季節ごとの変動も問題を難しくする

So we should keep all of our low emission players on the field as things are both nuclear and renewables need innovation and investment.

再生可能エネルギーの信頼性を高め 停電リスクを回避するには

But if we don't know yet which technology will be ready?

太陽光や風力のピーク時に集めたエネルギーを貯蔵でき 必要時に供給できる巨大なストレージが必要だ

How quickly why not just invest in both and see what happens?

これが可能となるまで 他の電力源が柔軟に負荷を担うことで

And on the topic of current capacities.

文明が正常に機能することへの 信頼を作り出す必要がある

If we take nuclear energy offline right now, then that missing capacity will be replaced at least partially by fossil fuels.

やがて再生可能エネルギーのみで達成できるだろうが

Even if new nuclear power plants in the west are expensive in the long run, it may be cheaper to build them as long as they prevent more fossil fuel capacity being added and paying for the consequences of rapid climate change.

大量のバッテリーや蓄電プラントが必要だ

So do we need nuclear energy?

現時点では技術もキャパシティも不足しており

Well, it really depends how hard we choose to make things for ourselves.

化石燃料からの直接的移行は困難だ

And in a world that's already having a really hard time quitting fossil fuels.

仮に可能としても さらに考慮が必要なことがある

Why should we make things harder than necessary?

電力源から化石燃料を追い出すのではなく エネルギー全般を電気に置き換えたいのだ

Starting the change process and trying something new is always difficult.

自動車燃料や暖房といった 化石燃料依存の分野を電化しようとすると

Luckily you don't have to do it all on your own if you want to get out of a rut, we've got something for you.

現在の電力需要よりも さらに多くの電力を生み出す必要が生じる

We are big fans of skill share an online learning community that offers thousands of classes for all skill levels in tons of creative disciplines like illustration, animation or film and video or you could try a class on home decoration, growing houseplants or playing the guitar.

過去20年間のように世界中の電力需要が伸び続けるなら さらに多くが必要だ

There's something for everyone, really Unlimited access to all the classes is less than $10 a month with an annual premium membership and the 1st 1000 cuts Kazakh viewers to click the link in the description will get a free trial.

一つの結論が導かれる

Since we started working with skill share you, our viewers have taken over 100,000 hours of classes, including our own three skill share classes on how we make our animations.

完璧なエネルギー源はなく それぞれ固有の問題を抱えているのだ

If you want to learn more about motion graphics, give them a try and if you need an extra little push to get you going, maybe get started with some advice on motivation and inspiration.

再生可能エネルギーも原子力も 時間と投資と技術革新が必要だ

We liked the scientific method for artists, find inspiration, get motivated and grow your creative skills by Kendall Hill.

両者とも、単体で化石燃料を 電力網から追い出す準備はできていない

Agus in this class, Kendall explains her four phase process for exploring and figuring out your direction as an artist.

それぞれの活動家は可能だと主張するけども

For us it was a great way to get into the flow of creating something.

結局、問題はこれらの課題にどう対処したいかだ

But anything that makes you feel excited and sparks new ideas is a great first step.

直ちに原子力を放棄し、少なくとも一時的には 排出量の増加を受け入れるべきか

If you want to get creative with new skills and support to give it a go wait.

現存する原子炉を延命し 再生可能エネルギーの欠点を解決後に廃止させるのか