It seems our emissions will not fall quickly  enough to avoid runaway warming and we may  

急速な気候変動が世界を脅かしている

soon hit tipping points that will lead to the  collapse of ecosystems and our civilization.

排出の削減は温暖化の抑止には不十分そうで

While scientists, activists and much  of the younger generation urge action,  

生態系が崩壊する臨界点も近そうだし

it appears most politicians are not  committed to do anything meaningful  

人類の文明も危うい

while the fossil fuel industry still works  actively against change. It seems humanity  

科学者、活動家、多数の若者が 行動を促すものの

can’t overcome its greed and obsession with short  term profit and personal gain to save itself.

ほとんどの政治家は 意味ある活動に取り組まず

And so for many the future looks grim and  hopeless. Young people feel particularly  

化石燃料産業は依然として 変化を強く拒んでいる

anxious and depressed. Instead of looking  ahead to a lifetime of opportunity they  

人類は短期的・個人的な利益への欲望と執着を 克服できない

wonder if they will even have a future or  if they should bring kids into this world.  

保身のためだ

It’s an age of doom and hopelessness and  giving up seems the only sensible thing to do.

多くの人は 未来が厳しく絶望的にみえる

But that’s not true. You are not  doomed. Humanity is not doomed.  

特に若者は不安で憂鬱だ

Despite the seriousness of the situation, for  years positive trends have accumulated and there  

想像するのは未来の展望ではなく そもそも「未来があるのか」や

is finally some good news and a clear path towards  our collective climate goals. Welcome to our Ted  

「こんな世界に子供を産むべきか」だ

talk, please watch this video to the end – check  out our detailed sources afterwards to learn more.

今は破滅と絶望の時代であり 諦めることだけが賢明な行動に見える

Ok! Let’s start with the scariest things.

だが、それは真実ではない

Canceling the Apocalypse

あなたの破滅も 人類の破滅も確定していないのだ

Some of the most widely shared stories about  Climate Change are that it is an existential  

深刻な状況の一方 ポジティブな動向も長期的に蓄積されており

threat – the end of human civilization and  maybe even our own extinction event. And  

気候の共通目標への好材料と 明確な道筋がついに整ってきた

that it is basically unavoidable now.  But what does science actually say?

ようこそTedトークへ 最後までお付き合いを

As of 2022 the global average temperature  

詳細は概要欄の情報源リンクから

has risen 1.2 degrees celsius  compared to preindustrial times.  

よし！まずは最も恐ろしい内容から

Limiting warming to 1.5 degrees was the  most ambitious goal of the Paris agreement  

【終末を回避する】

but we are not likely to meet it. Already with the  warming we have today, hot places will get hotter,  

気候変動を人類存亡の危機とする捉え方が 広く共有されている

wet places wetter and the risk and strength of  extreme weather events increase significantly.

文明の終焉、そして人類の絶滅まであると

Warming beyond 2 degrees makes all of these  extremes more extreme, extreme weather events  

もはや終末は不可避とされるが 科学者の見解はどうだろう？

more common with more ecosystems under  major pressure. Some will not survive.

2022年現在、世界の平均気温は 産業革命以前に比べて1.2℃上昇している

At 3 degrees significant parts of earth,  especially in developing countries,  

1.5℃までに抑えるのが パリ協定での最大目標だったが

might become unable to feed their populations.  Heat waves will become a major global issue.  

実現できそうにない

Large scale natural systems will break  down. The scale and frequency of hurricanes,  

すでに現時点の温暖化で 暑い地域はより暑く

fires and droughts will further increase and cause  trillions in damage. Poor regions and subsistence  

湿潤な地域はより湿潤となり 異常気象のリスクと程度は有意に増加している

farmers will be hit the hardest. Hundreds of  millions of people will need to leave their homes.

2℃を超える温暖化は 現状をさらに悪化させる

In the 4-8 degree range the apocalypse begins  – the hothouse earth, where things change  

異常気象はより一般的になり 生態系への圧力も強まって

so quickly, that it may become unable  to support our large human population  

存続できない種も出る

and billions may perish, leaving  the rest on a hostile alien planet.  

3℃上昇するとかなりの地域 特に途上国で

A decade ago, for lack of action and perspective,  many scientists assumed a 4+ degree world was our  

人口を養えなくなるかも

future and a lot of public communication  focused on exactly this future path.  

熱波が世界の重要課題となり

Luckily, it's much less likely that this  version of the apocalypse will come to pass.

自然環境の枠組みが破壊される

If current climate policies stagnate, we’re  likely to end up with warming 3 °C by 2100.  

ハリケーン、山火事、干ばつの 規模と頻度がさらに増加し

Which is scary and tragic and far from acceptable.  But this is actually good news – how? In the last  

膨大な被害を招く

decade, we have seen enough progress that most  scientists now think that we have likely avoided  

貧しい地域や自給自足の農家は特に深刻で

apocalyptic climate change. Although substantial  risk still remains, we can pretty confidently say  

何億人もが移住を迫られるだろう

that humanity isn’t going anywhere. Civilization  might have to change, but it will endure.

4～8℃の上昇で終末が始まる

Which begs the question: What has changed over  the last ten years and is this really good news?

温室状態の地球は 物事の変化が激しく

## The Invisible Shift

人口を養いきれなくなって 数十億人が滅び

You probably know this story: The  last decade has been an immense  

生存者は一変した過酷な地球に 取り残されるかも

failure for climate policies around the world.  

10年前、行動と展望の欠如から

Instead of passing comprehensive, binding  bills that would meaningfully reduce emissions  

多くの科学者は 4℃以上増加する未来を想定し

we mostly did: nothing. A lost decade with one  negative record after another. And this story  

多くの意識啓発は まさにこの未来に焦点をあてていた

is true and it is one reason why so many people  are giving up. But it is not the whole picture.

幸運にも このような終末の可能性は低くなっている

Despite the lack of climate policies and ongoing  

気候政策が停滞すれば

lobbying and misinformation campaigns  from the fossil fuel industries,  

2100年までに3℃の温暖化で終わりそうだ

there was a lot of progress. Let us go back  20 years to see why today is so different:

これは恐ろしく、悲劇的で 受け入れられないが

Between 2000 and 2010, greenhouse  gas emissions had grown by 24%,  

いいニュースでもある ―なぜか？

three times as much as the increase in the  previous decade. Subsidies for fossil fuels  

この10年で、多くの科学者が 終末的な気候変動は回避されたという立場になった

aimed at promoting economic growth, caused  a colossal increase in their consumption.  

まだ大きなリスクは残るが

For emerging countries like China and  India coal was the cheapest fuel for growth  

人類は滅亡しないと自信を持って言える

while rich countries showed little  interest in changing their ways.

文明は変化を強いられるが 滅びはしない

In 2010, many people expected these trends  to continue. Instead of decreasing fossil  

ここで疑問が生じる この10年での変化とは？それは本当に吉報なのか？

fuel use its consumption would rise. The next  decade turned out to be very different though.

【見えない変化】

First of all, coal burning in emerging countries  like India has been slowed down or leveled off,  

次の内容はご存じかもしれない

like in China. And it has plummeted  in rich countries like the UK and US.  

「過去10年、世界の気候政策は大失敗だった」

Since 2015 three-quarters of planned coal  plants have been canceled and 44 countries  

「排出削減に効果的で拘束力のある法案を通さず」

have committed to stop building them. Ten years  ago that would have seemed like wishful thinking,  

「ほぼ何もしないことを選んだ」

but today we can say with confidence: Coal  is dying. It is just not competitive anymore.  

「悪化の報告が相次ぐ 失われた10年だった」

Because technologies we thought would remain  expensive matured rapidly instead. Renewable  

この内容は正しいし 多くにとって諦める根拠だ

electricity has shown explosive progress. In a  mere decade wind energy got three times cheaper.  

だが、これが全てではない

Solar electricity is now ten times cheaper!  Cheaper than coal or any other fossil-fuel burning  

気候政策の欠如や 化石燃料産業によるロビー活動と情報攪乱の一方

power plant, despite the massive subsidies and  global infrastructure propping up fossil fuels.

多くの進展もあったのだ

25 times more solar and nearly 5 times more wind  electricity is produced today compared with ten  

現状の変化を見るため 20年前に戻ろう

years ago, which is of course not nearly enough.  One of the biggest obstacles is the variability  

2000年から2010年の間

of their power output. Renewables need a lot of  energy storage to be a reliable power source,  

温室効果ガスの排出量は24％増加し

like expensive batteries. Amazingly battery  prices have decreased by 97% in the past 30 years,  

過去10年の増加量の3倍だった

60% in the last decade alone – which will serve  all kinds of green technology like electric cars.

経済成長のための 化石燃料への補助金が

You might say, well that’s great but  didn’t Kurzgesagt’s last climate video  

消費量を激増させたのだ

say that while wind and solar are nice, we need  nothing less than a fundamental transition of  

中国やインド等の新興国には 石炭は最も安価な燃料で

our global industrial system? Yes but luckily  the shift goes beyond just the energy sector.  

豊かな国々も変わろうとしなかった

Throughout the economy people are working on  improving current technology to lower emissions.

2010年、この傾向が続くと多くの人が思った

We’re rapidly replacing old incandescent light  bulbs with LEDs that are ten times more efficient.  

化石燃料の利用は低下でなく増加するのだと

In 2020 about 7 out of 10 new  cars in Norway were electric  

だが次の10年は全く違った

or hybrid – In 2021 it was already  8 out of 10. And the list goes on,  

まず、インドなど新興国での石炭利用は 中国のように安定または低下しており

from electric heating and better insulation  to ships traveling at half speed to save fuel.

英米のような富裕国では急落している

Wherever you look you find scientists,  

2015年以降、石炭発電所の計画の3/4が中止となり 44ヵ国が新設を見送った

engineers and entrepreneurs trying to  solve some aspect of climate change.  

10年前なら楽観論だが

Enormous amounts of human ingenuity are  being brought to bear on this problem  

今は断言できる：石炭は死につつある

with more and more people deciding to prioritize  preventing rapid climate change. Solutions for  

もはや競争力がない

low-carbon production of cement, electronics and  steel, and innovations like artificial meat and  

当面は高価だろうという技術が

carbon capture are in the works. The more of  these technologies we deploy; the cheaper new  

急速に成熟したからだ

and better technology gets. The cheaper they  get, the more people use them. And so on.

再生可能エネルギーは爆発的に進歩した

We can see the impact already:  

たった10年で風力発電のコストは1/3に

The domestic CO2 output of rich countries  is falling without a major recession.  

太陽光は1/10になっている

Since the year 2000, the EU as a whole shows a  21% decrease, Italy 28%, the UK 35%, Denmark 43%.

これは石炭や他の化石燃料の発電より安い

But the best news may be that emissions are no  longer necessarily coupled with economic growth.  

化石燃料には世界的なインフラと 巨額の補助金があるのにだ

In the past this was an inconvenient truth  – to get richer, you had to emit more. Which  

10年前と比べ、太陽光発電は25倍 風力発電は5倍近く行われているが

led to fierce arguments between developing  and developed countries about the fairness  

もちろん全く十分でない

of reducing emissions while their populations  were still poor. But in the last decade we have  

最大の障害の一つは その出力のバラつきだ

seen that it IS possible to increase prosperity  without increasing emissions. Emissions in the  

再生可能エネルギーの信頼獲得には バッテリーのような高価な貯蔵先が必要だ

Czech Republic dropped 13% while their GDP grew  by 27%! France reduced their CO2 emissions by 14%  

驚くべきことに バッテリーの価格低下は過去30年で97％

while increasing GDP by 15%! Romania saw  an 8% decrease and 35% growth! And even the  

10年だけでも60％で

largest economy on earth - the USA - decreased  emissions by 4% while growing their GDP by 26%!

電気自動車など 全てのグリーンテクノロジーに有用だ

Some of you may call this a numbers trick. That  rich countries are just exporting emissions to  

素晴らしいことだが Kurzgesagtの前回の気候動画の主張は

poorer nations by moving the dirty parts of  their economies like manufacturing. But even  

「風力や太陽光は重要だが 産業システムの根本的な転換が最重要」では？

when we account for all of our imported goods,  the numbers still look positive! It’s no longer  

その通りだが 幸運にも躍進はエネルギー部門だけではない

a matter of having to choose between prosperity  and the climate as it seemed to be a decade ago.

経済全体で 人々は排出削減への技術改善に取り組んだ

Developing countries will profit from  that because as rich countries pay for  

古い白熱電球を、効率10倍のLEDへと 急速に置き換えている

the expensive development of green technologies,  they can adopt them more cheaply. They can skip  

2020年、ノルウェイでは新車の10台中7台が 電気自動車かハイブリッド車だった

most of the high emission phase that  today's rich countries went through.  

2021年には10台中8台だ

We are at the point where not  decarbonizing is a bad business decision.

改善リストは、電気暖房や断熱材の改善から 速度を半分にして燃料を節約する船まで続く

And we haven’t even really talked  about solutions like carbon capture.  

どこにでも科学者、技術者、起業家がいて

In 2000 it didn't really exist. In 2022 that  technology does exist and costs around $600 to  

気候変動の関係に取り組んでいる

remove one ton of CO2 from the atmosphere. As  investment pours in and the technology matures  

急速な気候変動の抑制を 人々が重視するほどに

and begins to scale, it is likely that these  costs will plummet over the next few decades.

人類の膨大な創意工夫が 問題解決に活用される

So everything's fine then? Well let us not get  carried away here - all of these processes are  

セメント、電子機器、鉄鋼の 低炭素での生産方法や

great but not nearly fast enough. We are still  doing way too little and technology will not  

人工肉や炭素回収等の技術革新が進行中だ

magically solve everything. We need to use  fewer resources and use them longer, design  

これら技術を導入するほど 優れた新技術の価格が下がる

consumer goods that are repairable and durable  and decrease our energy requirements. We need  

安価なら需要も増え、という具合だ

much better infrastructure, agriculture  and cities. It will still be hard work,  

影響は確認済みで

especially to get the right  policies passed and enacted.

大きな不況もなく 富裕国のCO2排出量は減少している

But for the first time ever,  

2000年以降、EU全体では21％

there are a few trendlines pointing  solidly in the right direction.

イタリアで28％、イギリスで35％ デンマークで43％も減少している

And now imagine – If all of this was achieved  without proper financial and political support  

更に良い知らせは排出が 成長と連動しなくなったことにある

and despite fossil fuel lobbying  – just think what humanity can do  

かつて、豊かになるためには

when climate change finally gets the  political attention and funding it needs.

排出量を増やす必要があった

So is it ok to feel hopeful again? The  situation is still dire and serious,  

そのため国の間で激論が交わされた 排出削減は貧困国の停滞を意味し

so what is the point of focusing  on this side of the story?

公平性に問題があったが

The Trap of Hopelessness

この10年で経済成長は 排出を増やさなくても可能だとわかった

Climate change can feel overwhelming and  make your future seem bleak. The sadness  

チェコ共和国は13％の排出削減を達成しつつ GDPは27％成長した

and hopelessness that many people feel is real  and very destructive because it causes apathy.

フランスは14％排出を削減した一方 GDPは15％成長し

Apathy that is only serving the fossil  fuel industry that is still delaying  

ルーマニアも8％の減少と、35％の成長だ

change however it can. In a sense  they have weaponized hopelessness.  

そして最大の経済大国アメリカでさえ

We are now in phase 4 in the public  debate about rapid climate change action:

排出は4％削減した一方GDPは26％成長している

Phase 1 was: Climate Change is not real.

「見せかけだ」と批判もあるだろう

Phase 2 was: Climate Change is  real but not caused by humans.

豊かな国は製造業などの排出量の多い汚れ仕事を

Phase 3 was: Climate Change may be  caused by humans but it’s not that bad.

貧しい国に押し付けているに過ぎないと

Phase 4 is: Climate Change is no longer avoidable.  We are doomed and it doesn’t matter what we do.

しかし全ての輸入品を考慮に入れたとしても

If we want the world to change, we first need  to believe that change is possible. And we have  

この値は依然プラスとなる

an abundance of evidence that it is. Changes  to our industrial system are gaining momentum,  

もはや一昔前の、繁栄と気候のどちらを取るか

technology gets better and cheaper, climate change  has become a key issue in most free elections.  

というような問題ではないのだ

As more and more younger people  move into influential positions,  

途上国は後追いのおかげで

they prioritize climate change and work on  new solutions. In 2022 most governments not  

富裕国が開発費用を負担した技術を

only acknowledge it but set their own net zero  goals – in democratic and autocratic countries.  

格安で導入できる

The results of years of fighting a steep  uphill battle are now clearly visible. The  

最も高排出だった工程をスキップできるのだ

pressure needs to keep increasing, to make sure  that the promises made today are actually kept!

我々は脱炭素しないという決定が 非合理であるという地点にいる

Climate doomerism is the equivalent of giving up  even though you can still prevent not just the  

炭素回収のような解決策については まだ十分に議論されていない

worst case but also mitigate most of the bad  things, make changes in time to adapt better  

2000年時点では存在すらしていなかったが

and prevent the poorest from suffering. That is  why hopelessness and apathy are so dangerous.

2022年現在、これらの技術は存在し

If the last, in many ways wasted  decade, has shown anything,  

1トンCO2を除去するのに600ドルかかっている

then it’s that progress is being made and that  dire scenarios are just predictions – not our  

投資が行われ技術が成熟して 規模が拡大すると

sealed fate. As of 2022, based on current global  policies, we will end up in a 3 degrees world.  

コストは今後急落すると思われる

Now it is our job to yet again prove the  predictions wrong – despite how serious and  

つまり、何も問題はないのだろうか？

urgent things are. To turn that 3 degrees into a  2 degrees and then see where we can go from there.

まあ、そうは問屋が卸さない

For that we need hope. And we hope we gave you  that today, at least a little. That you feel  

これらの進展は素晴らしいが速度が足りない

that things are serious but also that you have  a future. That you can have kids without dooming  

我々の行動はまだ少なく 技術も魔法のようにはいかない

them or the world. That taking action today is  worth it. And that despite powerful industries  

我々は資源を節約し

doing everything to delay it, society is changing.  If you need a more concrete roadmap of what you  

修理可能で長持ちする製品を作り 使用エネルギーを削減する必要がある

can do personally – we are working on a follow  up video to talk about that in greater detail.

またインフラ、農業、街づくりを 改善する必要もある

Doomerism, inactivity and weaponized hopelessness  

特に適切な政策を成立させるのは 相変わらず難題だが

are the only trump cards left for the powers  that don’t want change. Don’t let them win.

いつくかの傾向は 正しい方向を示し始めた

We are still excited about the future.  And we think one of the best things  

思い出してほしい これらは適切な財政及び政治的支援もなく

you can do to keep your optimism and  curiosity up is to learn new things.  

化石燃料のロビー活動にも関わらず達成されたのだ

If you don’t know where to start, our friends  from Brilliant.org have got you covered.

考えてほしい、気候変動が政治的注目と 資金を得たとき何ができるかを

Brilliant makes math and science accessible  and fun with a hands-on approach.  

うん、やっぱり希望が見えてきそう？

More than 60 interactive courses  like „The joy of problem solving“ or  

状況はいまだ深刻だ

„Scientific thinking“ give you the tools to crack  problems in math, science and computer science  

じゃあ、この側面に注目する理由は？

that are all designed to get your intuition  going and give you plenty of aha-experience.

【絶望という罠】

Lessons will surprise you with  storytelling, code-writing tasks and  

気候変動に圧倒され 未来は暗いと思うことがある

interactive challenges – basically using whatever  keeps you interested and entertained. All the  

人々の悲しみや絶望感は切実かつ破壊的で 無関心へとつながる

content is interactive: instead of just reading  and listening to explanations, you drag and drop,  

無関心とは化石燃料産業を救うものであり

manipulate shapes and diagrams, make  selections and answer questions.  

できる限り変化を遅らせたいからだ

This way you learn something almost without  you noticing it. And tiny step by step you’ll  

ある意味、彼らは絶望を武器としている

build up your long-term understanding of  science and get closer to your STEM goals.

我々は急速な気候変動に対して第4段階目にいる

To start looking at the world of science from  a different perspective, go to Brilliant.org  

第1段階は 「気候変動は事実ではない」