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  • Economic experts are increasingly sounding the alarm about a possible recession.


  • What that is and why it matters are our first topics this Tuesday; I'm Carl Azuz.


  • A popular definition of recession is "two consecutive quarters of decreasing economic growth".


  • Sounds technical and maybe not something of major concern.


  • So, why is it?


  • A healthy economy is always growing; it's always expanding.


  • So, if you have at least two quarters in a row, basically a six-month period or more when the economy is shrinking,


  • you're likely to see company sales drop, gross domestic product drop, exports drop, people losing jobs and having trouble finding new ones, and consumers spending less money on goods.


  • That's not all happening right now.


  • The US economy did contractor shrinkin the first quarter of this year, but consumer spending was strong in the winter and early spring, and the jobs picture is, overall, a good one.


  • The unemployment rate is very low and the economy has added 400,000 jobs or more in each month of 2022.


  • These are some reasons why President Joe Biden said last month that he wasn't concerned about a recession anytime soon.


  • However, there are economic storm clouds over Americainflation is a big one we've talked about.


  • The jump in prices of many things we buy hit their highest levels in decades last year, and they've only gotten worse since then.


  • The President's critics blame his policies for driving up oil prices, which are a major factor in inflation, and they say government spending from the 1.9-trillion-dollar COVID relief package he signed last year also caused inflation to get worse.

    大統領の批判は、インフレの主要因である原油価格を押し上げたのは大統領の政策であるとし、昨年署名した1兆9千億円の COVID 救済策による政府支出もインフレを悪化させたとします。

  • That package came in addition to those passed during the Trump administration.


  • Inflation is expected to be a major issue in the upcoming US midterm elections, one that could hurt President Biden's fellow Democrats who currently control both chambers of Congress.


  • America's Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, says keeping prices in check is really its job, not the President's, but even the Fed's been criticized for its response to inflation.


  • Has this booming pandemic economy run out of steam?


  • Despite widespread job growth, a housing market frenzy, and a monster gain on the S&P 500 last year, many economists and CEOs now warn a recession could be looming.

    雇用が拡大し、住宅市場が活況を呈し、昨年は S&P500 が大きく上昇したにもかかわらず、多くのエコノミストやCEOが景気後退の危機を警告しています。

  • As the Federal Reserve tries to tame high inflation by aggressively hiking interest rates, even the head of the Fed himself admits central bankers probably should have acted sooner


  • Hindsight says we should've moved earlier.


  • We're gonna use our tools, and we're gonna get this done.


  • Now the challenge for the Fed is this: Slowing the economy enough to get inflation under control, but not so much that it lurches into recession.

    今、FRB に課せられた課題はこれです。インフレを抑制するのに十分なほど経済を減速させ、しかし景気後退に陥るほどには減速させないことです。

  • It's the search for the so-called "soft landing", but it won't be easy.


  • The chances of pulling off are very, very low because they have to push up the unemployment rate.


  • And in the past when you pushed up the unemployment rate, you've almost never been able to avoid a full-fledged recession.


  • As recession fears grow, investors are dumping stocks and other risky assets.


  • Everything from the tech sector to retail stocks to Bitcoin has plunged.


  • Other factors like Russia's invasion of Ukraine and COVID-19 lockdowns in China, they aren't helping the outlook.

    その他、ロシアのウクライナ侵攻や中国の COVID-19 のロックダウンなど、見通しを悪くする要因もあります。

  • So if the US economy does slide into recession, what shape will it take?


  • There's an alphabet soup of possibilities.


  • The V-shaped curve is the best-case scenario; it's a sharp drop followed by an equally sharp recovery.


  • Often, that results from a... a one-time shock to the economy, like we saw at the beginning of the pandemic


  • The U-shaped curve is a more drawn-out recession that takes a few years for GDP to fully recover.

    U字型のカーブは、より長引く不況で、GDP が完全に回復するまでには数年かかると言われています。

  • Now, that occurred in the mid-1970s, during the oil crisis and a period of stagflation.


  • Then there's the dreaded L-shaped or "hockey stick" recessionthat's the worst case.


  • That's when a prolonged recession turns into a full-blown depressionthe Great Depression is a classic example.


  • But some economists argue the financial crisis, which started in 2007 and took nearly 6 years for a full recovery, also met that L-shaped definition.

    しかし、2007 年に始まり、完全な回復に6年近くかかった金融危機も、このL字型の定義に当てはまると主張する経済学者もいます。

  • There's also the W, when the economy bounces back quickly, only to slide right back into recession.


  • And finally, there's the K.

    そして最後に、K です。

  • Now, that's when different sectors of the economy rebound more quickly than others, creating two separate recovery lines.


  • Some economists argue that's what really happened after the start of the pandemic, when low-income workers were the last to feel the economy come back.


  • That's a lot of letters, but remember, a recession is just a possibility at this point.


  • Still, it's what economists are treating very seriously.


  • I was talking to a bunch of professional forecasters the other day, and one after another said they can't remember an environment where it was this uncertain.


  • The lockdowns in China on top of an already fragile economy, [the] war in Europe, [and] galloping inflation in the United States, you have the makings of a perfect storm.


  • Global recession, it's a risk; it's not a certainty, but it's a pretty scary risk


  • A risk that American families are, increasingly, beginning to fear.


  • 10-second trivia: Speedee was once a mascot of which restaurant chain?

    10秒豆知識: スピーディーはかつて、どこのレストランチェーンのマスコットでした?

  • Checkers, Wendy's, Steak 'n Shake, or McDonald's.


  • In the 1950s, Speedee smiled on signs and bags for McDonald's.


  • In Russia, hundreds of foreign companies have cut back on operations, suspended them for the time being, or quit doing business there altogether since Russia's military invaded Ukraine on February 24.


  • McDonald's, which had temporarily shut down almost 850 restaurants in Russia, just announced it's leaving the country for good.


  • The burger chain says the humanitarian crisis caused by the war in Ukraine plus an unpredictable operating environment contributed to its decision to sell its Russia business.


  • The jobs of more than 60,000 employees are now in question, and McDonald's could take a hit as its 955 locations in Russia and Ukraine combined accounted for 9% of its revenue last year.


  • The decision closes the door on more than 30 years of McDonald's operations in Russia.


  • Here's a very different-sounding CNN report from 1990 when that door was opened.

    このドアが開かれた1990年の CNN の報道は、まったく異なるものでした。

  • In a dismal season for the Soviet economy, a golden vision of hope [is] on the horizon.


  • (January 31, 1990. McDonald's opens in the Soviet Union)


  • Wednesday, after a dozen years of preparation, McDonald's opens its largest restaurant in its 52nd country.


  • Payment in rubles only.


  • Unlike the new hard-currency stores, which have made life seem better for foreigners and privileged Russians, that left a great majority resentfully out in the cold.


  • Inside, room for 700 with an international motif that combines Big Ben with Big Mac.


  • For the novice, instructions on what to order with your cheeseburger.


  • Maybe a milkshake, glorying in the name "morozhenoye cocktail", ice cream cocktail.


  • 600 young Soviets have had a month of training in a way of working unfamiliar to the Soviet Unionfast and hard.


  • The usual order of the day here is service with a snarl.


  • But McDonald's has set out to change that with a zeal, only partly missionary.


  • We're not evangelists, so, uh, it's sort of neat to see the young crews and to see them smile and say, "Thank you, please come back again."


  • And the Soviet kids in uniform sure look like converts.


  • People, they are very nice.


  • Always smiling and, as you know, in Moscow, not in every restaurant you can find smiling people.


  • A meal here will cost two or three hours' wages for the average Soviet citizen, but you may think it's worth it.


  • Here's the competition.


  • A place that sells pelmeni, meat-filled dumplings, guaranteed to stay with you.


  • Muscovites are used to queuing up for something to eat.


  • The difference at McDonald's is they promise there'll be something left when you get to the head of the line.


  • Two weeks ago, we told you about the longest glass-bottomed bridge on or above the earth.


  • Today, we're taking you across the world's longest suspension footbridge, which stretches for a little under half a mile, but over a deep mountain valley in the Czech Republic, about 312 feet over it.


  • It's mainly supported by six cables; it took two years and almost $8.5 million to build.


  • Pedestrians say it gives a great view, but it does shake.


  • So, if you're looking to shake a leg; shake, rattle, and roll; shake it up; shake your groove thing; shake, shake, shake your booty and, hopefully, not shake anything off the bridge,


  • it could be kind of fun if you're not shaking with fear or shaking at the knees after getting roped into a suspenseful, shaky-bridge shake-off.


  • I'm Carl Azuz, and that about spans all the bridge puns I got left.

    カール・アズスです。 という感じで、橋のダジャレを全部言い尽くしました。

  • Massabesic Middle School; shout-out to our viewers in Waterboro, Maine for subscribing and leaving a comment at

    マサベシック中学校、メイン州ウォーターボロの視聴者の皆様こんにちは。 にご登録いただき、コメントを残していただいた皆様に感謝いたします。

Economic experts are increasingly sounding the alarm about a possible recession.


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    林宜悉 に公開 2022 年 05 月 23 日