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  • There is an invisible layer to the war in Ukraine.

  • You can't see it or touch it, but it's

  • vital to every aspect of decision making in warfare.

  • This invisible layer is the radio noise.

  • And hidden in the radio noise are signals.

  • We're going to look at three aspects of radio

  • in Ukraine, the interception of communications

  • between Russian soldiers--

  • --how broadcasters are using radio

  • to combat censorship online, and the mysterious silence

  • of a number station known as the Russian Lady.

  • Why would a 21st century Russian army

  • send so many unencrypted radio signals

  • on the battlefields of Ukraine?

  • And how can we confirm their legitimacy?

  • This, as far as we can tell, is a recording

  • of a Russian soldier in Ukraine, but the people who captured it

  • were far away and weren't using radio equipment directly.

  • A software-defined radio is a computer with a radio receiver

  • and an antenna attached.

  • It can pick up radio transmissions

  • across a wide range of frequencies at the same time.

  • The cheapest ones are about 30 pounds.

  • So you can watch a waterfall of radio signals

  • from across the spectrum and spot

  • one you're interested in, then choose exactly how you want

  • to decode the signal just with the click of a button,

  • no extra equipment required.

  • Connect it to the internet and, suddenly,

  • 100s of people from around the world

  • can stream any radio signal your antenna can pick up.

  • And many people are very interested in monitoring them.

  • Couple those web servers with a chat room app like Discord,

  • and you can create an open-source intelligence

  • team of volunteers, which is what Boyan Malashev did.

  • My name is Boyan Malashev.

  • Well, Ukrainian Radio Watchers is a really brilliant community

  • that it's made by a lot of people

  • who give a lot of their time and their efforts

  • in trying to listen the Russian communications.

  • When the war could get so intensive,

  • many people actually started to join.

  • We were shared in platforms like Reddit and Twitter,

  • so many people started to understand

  • about us, started to join because most of them

  • wanted to get translations about what is happening.

  • And we had pretty active translators doing this.

  • I think in the server we have 100 translators.

  • Sometimes, I listen, and sometimes I record.

  • But the main thing I do in the server

  • and how I help the server is by developing the Discord server

  • and making the website.

  • The recordings and the main function of the community,

  • it's made by the people who are in it.

  • I do not know anything about radios and communications,

  • but it's important because we are dealing with war crimes;

  • we are dealing with deaths; we are

  • dealing with trying to help people who

  • are actually in war right now.

  • We heard how commanders and officers are arranging

  • airstrikes with locations.

  • We are trying to find the call signs of them.

  • The question of whether we can trust the recordings

  • is a bit of an open one.

  • This is obviously still a conflict, and what we do know

  • is that Ukrainians themselves have been exceptionally good

  • in terms of their information warfare,

  • in terms of their communications about how successful they've

  • been versus the Russians.

  • That said, there, I think, is very little doubt

  • that some of these communications are genuine.

  • Some of the content would be exceptionally hard to fake.

  • And when you put together all of the other material

  • that we've seen, for example, pictures

  • on social media of captured Russian troops,

  • pictures of the radio equipment they were using, all of that

  • together paints a picture that would be very hard to fake.

  • When you hear the conversations, you can feel it first,

  • and then you have-- we have the experts who can check

  • if this could be manipulated or not.

  • And as we're monitoring a whole day of conversations,

  • we can know that what is happening,

  • it's not fake because sometimes something is happening

  • and-- while they're arranging attack.

  • And in the next seconds, attack actually happens.

  • We could see that in the news.

  • We could see that the airstrikes actually happened.

  • So yes, we have some evidence that the conversations

  • we monitored are authenticated.

  • Both sides are fighting quite an aggressive information

  • campaign, so you do have to be wary of that within analysis.

  • Do the things that we're hearing in these transmissions marry up

  • with what we're seeing on the ground?

  • Do they compare well with what other sources are reporting?

  • So if we have seen that there are Russian soldiers carrying

  • unencrypted radios or notionally unencrypted radios, and now

  • we are hearing unencrypted transmissions

  • that have been intercepted, that all points

  • towards that information being something

  • that we can use to form an assessment

  • and begin to construct analysis.

  • The image of this pretty invincible, very tough

  • Russian war machine has taken a huge knock.

  • I mean, even Western intelligence analysts

  • expected Russia to win pretty easily.

  • They thought that Russia had overwhelming military might,

  • far superior technology, and battlefield experience

  • in places like Syria and, before that, in wars in Georgia,

  • and so on.

  • As it turns out, the Russian military effort

  • has been much more chaotic than anybody anticipated.

  • And I think that is a big blow to the image

  • of the Russian military and indeed to the image of Russia

  • that Putin has so carefully sculpted because I think

  • a lot of what Putin is trying to do

  • is to say, take us seriously as a great power.

  • He couldn't really do that on an economic level,

  • but Russia could always point to its enormous military might.

  • And now, even that looks slightly less credible

  • than it did before this conflict.

  • There is another group listening to Russian troops in Ukraine.

  • They call themselves ShadowBreak and were originally

  • a VC-funded security company focused

  • on mapping and other intelligence services.

  • Samuel Cardillo is their founder and head of technology.

  • We're ShadowBreak.

  • It's a company created, like, three years ago, founded by VC.

  • We're mainly a geospatial intelligence company.

  • Intelligence is our core business.

  • The thing here is that everything

  • we're doing concerning Ukraine has being totally free.

  • The company has unlocked $500,000 of personal money

  • to help Ukraine.

  • We started a logistic supply run and all the things

  • to serve people within Ukraine, and we're

  • trying to help because I think it's our duty.

  • In terms of military backgrounds,

  • well, I've been serving in the army for three

  • years in the intelligence--

  • in the Israeli Army.

  • I've been doing intelligence for a very long time.

  • I have a family background in intelligence.

  • There's been a shift in the last few years,

  • certainly since the Syrian civil war,

  • towards a real prominence of open-source intelligence,

  • open-source reporting.

  • And of course, the great example of this

  • is Bellingcat, which began reporting on munitions that

  • were being photographed by Syrians in the very early

  • stages of the Syrian conflict.

  • Ever since then, we've seen this proliferation

  • of open-source intelligence outfits, websites

  • piecing together information about conflicts

  • and making it public sometimes for commercial gain,

  • sometimes simply because it's viewed

  • as a sort of public good.

  • And a lot of these organisations are funded by donations,

  • by charities by government grants that kind of thing.

  • There is an open question about all of this, this new world,

  • this frontier, about where the money does always come from

  • and then whose interests might lie behind some of these

  • organisations.

  • Russia, in particular, has repeatedly and baselessly,

  • I should add, slandered organisations like Bellingcat

  • and accused them of being stooges for Western

  • intelligence agencies.

  • Ultimately, a lot of these organisations you have to judge

  • on the content that they are putting out there and the stuff

  • that they are making available.

  • And I guess that the fundamental factor

  • is that this is publicly available information.

  • It is open-source intelligence.

  • And the better of these organisations make clear what

  • their workings are.

  • They show why they have arrived at certain assumptions,

  • and then, sort of in a kind of Wikipedia format,

  • invite others out there to challenge their conclusions.

  • The fact that we're kind of expanding within the signal

  • intelligence is a little bit weird.

  • We had to kind of understand a lot of new things and recruit

  • translators, and it's completely new for the company.

  • Right now, most of the people are

  • working with us are volunteers.

  • We have few people who are on full-time salary

  • but very few at this moment for this operation.

  • There's a big question about where the aerials

  • and where the SDR systems themselves

  • are located because the nearer they are to the battlefield,

  • the clearer the signals they can intercept.

  • So there is public web SDR which are located outside of Ukraine.

  • And then, we have secured logistical supply

  • at this point.

  • And we're doing things to have web SDR within Ukraine which

  • gives us access to UHF frequencies, which

  • let us listen as well to radio handles,

  • which are shorter waves basically, like nearer troops.

  • Both ShadowBreak and Ukrainian Radio Watchers

  • say that there have been cyber attacks against many

  • of the servers they use for listening.

  • I don't know who is behind that, but we've

  • seen clearly cyber attacks against some web SDR.

  • They get hacked and stuff like that.

  • So we could assume it's like either trolls or people who

  • don't want all the people to listen to those frequencies.

  • So we don't know.

  • But yeah, we made our own, and we're still

  • working on making our own kind of private web SDR

  • things, which is also part of the money we've unlocked.

  • I think many of them are under DDoS attack, which

  • is attacking of hackers so they can stop their services.

  • Maybe some of them were bombed and--

  • for example, the antenna is broken,

  • or the whole equipment is dead.

  • The number of the web SDRs in Russia and Ukraine are going

  • down, which is a big problem for us because without the web SDRs

  • we cannot do anything.

  • Boyan also says he's planning to go into Ukraine in order

  • to set up an SDR.

  • We are thinking to do our own web SDR.

  • I got some connections in my country with people who are

  • actually travelling to Ukraine to bring supplies.

  • So we can-- some day in the next two weeks,

  • we are setting up a web based here in Bulgaria,

  • and we are setting up SDR in Ukraine.

  • Setting up a system like this was risky even

  • before the current invasion.

  • Last year, Stanislav Stetsenko, a resident of Crimea,

  • was arrested by the Russian Federal Security Service

  • under suspicion of being a Ukrainian informant

  • and was facing up to 25 years in prison if found guilty.

  • So we know how people are tuning into these transmissions,

  • but it still leaves the question, if they know

  • they can be intercepted, why are the Russians

  • using unencrypted radios in a war zone?

  • The amount of communications we're hearing in clear

  • seems to indicate that Russian military may

  • have a problem with crypto and key distribution

  • as secure communications require some form of encryption.

  • And how that encryption typically

  • works is a series of keys are provided to anybody

  • on the network, and the traffic can only

  • be encrypted or decrypted using those keys.

  • And that requires a level of management in a military

  • to ensure the keys change daily, for instance--

  • they may change hourly--

  • and that they're distributed to everybody who needs them.

  • And then, everybody who is using those keys

  • has the correct encryption and decryption equipment

  • attached to their radios or embedded

  • in their radios and software.

  • That indicates that the modernization that the Russian

  • ministry of defence has been parading and promoting has

  • potentially been less successful than they were actually making

  • out.

  • It indicates a potential vulnerability in the way

  • that the Russians are actually conducting war.

  • Some of the things that we've identified

  • are the Russians using civilian radios that you can buy on--

  • I mean, you can buy them on eBay.

  • They're not that hard to find.

  • They're not that expensive.

  • These would use sections of the electromagnetic spectrum that

  • are open access to everybody.

  • We've spent a large portion of our professional lives

  • trying to understand what is happening

  • within the Russian military, particularly

  • in light of the reforms that were launch 10 years ago,

  • the "new look" Russian military as it was termed.

  • I think our analysis of the data herein

  • has always been the Russians have kind of got

  • their mojo if you like and after years of malaise

  • had been upgrading their military, taking the steps they

  • need to make this military and an army that

  • is fit for the kind of wars it's going to be fighting

  • in the 21st century.

  • And when suddenly you see that that military is

  • doing something as basic as transmitting

  • clear traffic on HF, I think that brings

  • into a wider question.

  • It's a bit like, well, if they're not

  • doing that correctly, well, what else is going wrong?

  • And this, I think, provides other clues

  • into perhaps the health of the Russian army,

  • writ large, in this conflict so far.

  • Is Putin aware of what's happening on the ground?

  • One suspects that his intelligence is probably

  • pretty limited.

  • He has a very tight circle of advisors,

  • and he is an autocrat.

  • He's a fairly scary guy.

  • And so the extent to which people

  • will want to bring him unwelcome messages

  • that the war is not going that well may be limited

  • because the commanding officers of the armed forces

  • may feel that that reflects badly on him.

  • And that could well be one of Russia's problems

  • as they attempt to adapt to what's going on.

  • In military communications, there's an awful lot of traffic

  • that needs to be carried.

  • If you think of it in terms of your internet at home,

  • your internet is carrying a lot of data, full-motion video.

  • It can carry voice, things like that.

  • And the military needs its radio communications

  • to do all of those things but spread out over a wide area.

  • So typically, they would have--

  • for a certain size formation, they

  • would have what we'd call a trunk

  • network, which is designed to carry most of that information.

  • Think of it as like the trunk of a tree, and then

  • you kind of have the branches going off it

  • into tactical communications and things like that.

  • That's what we would expect to see because that provides

  • the frontline soldier in his or her tank with the ability

  • to reach back to their officers, and their officer's officers,

  • and their officer's officer's officers all the way up

  • to Moscow if needs be.

  • Most of those communications would be encrypted, but instead

  • what we're seeing is mounting evidence

  • that these networks haven't been put in place.

  • They haven't been built.

  • So users on Discord servers like Ukrainian Radio Watchers

  • and ShadowBreak are identifying unusual signals,

  • then they tell other users which frequencies to listen on,

  • work out how the signals should be decoded.

  • They record them.

  • They translate them and timestamp the audio

  • so that they can be published to a wider audience.

  • There's another reason why so many Russian users

  • are using Discord.

  • Some of the Russians also care to get the news.

  • What is the opinion about the other people for them?

  • What is happening about Russia in the other countries' news?

  • Discord isn't blocked in Russia unlike Instagram, Facebook,

  • and the BBC website.

  • To circumvent blocks like these, the BBC

  • has resuscitated an old radio format that, up until recently,

  • it had been rapidly shutting down around the world.

  • Shortwave.

  • It's certainly the case that BBC's shortwave radio, which

  • incidentally is where I started my career during the Cold War,

  • was a big player back in those eras.

  • But that was the pre-internet era.

  • If they're restarting these services now,

  • it could reflect a couple of things.

  • One could be a slight sort of Cold War instinct

  • that this was something that was terribly

  • important in the last great struggle with Moscow.

  • But also, that actually the Russians are really

  • tightening control of some of new media,

  • that, for example, messaging apps, or YouTube,

  • or Facebook, things that had a lot of impact in Russia

  • may now be much more restricted.

  • So you may have to go back to some of the old, tried, tested,

  • and we might have thought rather historic means

  • of communication-- may regain a new relevance.

  • This all links back to this Russian perception

  • of Western information warfare, and the perception

  • that the West is able to control the narrative

  • and influence a population externally.

  • So by the BBC extending its shortwave radio,

  • it's possible that some Russian citizens perhaps

  • will still be able to hear what's going on in the West.

  • You know, everything old is new again.

  • Some of the oldest, most mysterious radio signals

  • date back to World War I, and these kinds of signals

  • are still transmitting now.

  • So number stations are one of the great mysteries

  • of the radio portion of the electromagnetic spectrum.

  • They've been around for a long time.

  • They're very mysterious, almost spooky things to listen to.

  • What you typically get with a numbers station is you get

  • a series of digits that are repeated in an automated voice,

  • not unlike the kind of telephone automation you hear when

  • you're calling a call centre or something like that.

  • And it will be a series of seemingly random numbers,

  • and nobody really knows what they're for.

  • But there's several number stations

  • all over the world transmitting out of all kinds of places.

  • And one theory is that they are a means of communicating

  • covertly with people, perhaps spies for instance, deployed

  • beyond the borders of a particular country.

  • And the theory as to how it would work

  • is that the series of numbers--

  • they're usually in sequences of five different numbers.

  • Each refer to a particular thing.

  • There are, of course, Discord servers dedicated

  • to following number stations.

  • One number station in particular began

  • acting strangely just as the war in Ukraine broke out.

  • SO6s, known as the Russian Lady, usually transmits null messages

  • during the last few days of every month.

  • Usually, it sends out numbers according

  • to a fixed format, short messages of less than 10 groups

  • of five digits at a time.

  • Suddenly, just before it went off air,

  • it sent out a message longer than 192 unpaired groups,

  • which is very unusual.

  • It has been silent ever since.

  • Well, number stations are, in many senses,

  • is a hang up from the Cold War.

  • But then again, arguably this entire conflict is a hang up

  • from the Cold War, so it's not necessarily

  • so easy to write them off as totally insignificant.

  • But ultimately, there are various ways

  • that intelligence agencies communicate with many

  • of their deep cover operatives.

  • Number stations historically were a method

  • used by the KGB in the Cold War and, of course,

  • by other powers.

  • And on some level, they continue to presumably

  • have utility probably as a backup means of communication.

  • Is this a hang up from the Cold War?

  • Look, there are elements of it in the sense

  • that I think Putin is attempting to reverse some of the losses

  • that he felt that the Soviet Union, now Russia,

  • experienced after the end of the cold war,

  • in particular, territorial losses and losses

  • of a sphere of influence.

  • So I suppose you could see it as a kind of effort

  • to reverse some of the losses that Moscow

  • felt it experienced after 1989.

  • And Putin, after all, has referred

  • to the collapse of the Soviet Union

  • as one of the greatest geopolitical catastrophes

  • of the 20th century.

  • And I feel he feels that he's trying to correct

  • some of those wrongs.

  • There's a famous quote by Field Marshal Montgomery

  • made during the second World War about air power--

  • "If we lose the war in the air, we lose the war,

  • and lose it quickly."

  • Does this now apply to air waves, radio signals as well?

  • I think that's still the case for the air power,

  • but I think it's now also the case

  • for the electromagnetic spectrum.

  • I think we're dealing with a domain we cannot see.

  • We cannot sense the electromagnetic spectrum

  • as humans.

  • We have no means of being able to do that.

  • But just because we can't sense it,

  • it doesn't diminish its importance.

  • Control of the electromagnetic spectrum

  • may not lead to victory or defeat in its own right,

  • but it will certainly be a significant contribution

  • to whichever side prevails in this conflict.

There is an invisible layer to the war in Ukraine.

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Ukraine's battle of the airwaves | FT

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    s1byl に公開 2022 年 04 月 09 日
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