Name: アメリカ中央銀行のリセッション開始か（Is The U.S. Top Bank About To Start A Recession?）
Uploaded: 2022-03-20T21:37:06.000Z
Duration: 12 min 23 s
Description: VoiceTubeの動画で発音を聞きながら英語表現を覚えよう！学べる英語：

Stock market observers are sounding an alarm.

様態の副詞

I personally think we are right in maybe the biggest bubble of my career.

程度の副詞

Investors have loaded up on risky assets like housing, tech stocks and even cryptocurrency.

Asset valuations are somewhat elevated, the cryptocurrencies that are really speculative assets.

Many believe that the market problems started at the top U.S.

The Fed controls all of the money in circulation that includes all of the money in your wallet and the

They can print more during financial emergencies.

Once the Fed came in, people now expect the Fed is going to come in again.

central bank has kept interest rates on loans as cheap as possible.

They also bought bonds, flooding the market with emergency cash.

The balance of the Fed's bond portfolio has crescendoed to nearly $9 trillion, an all time

What's happened is the balance sheet has become more of a tool of policy.

The Federal Reserve is using its balance sheet to drive better outcomes.

The Fed's actions led the market to historic highs, but some within the central bank believe that this bond

buying program needs to end; the sooner the better.

Analysts predict a $2-3 trillion wind down in the Fed's bond portfolio over coming years.

Doing so would stabilize markets, but there's a risk: if the Fed drops its emergency stimulus too

The big challenge is raising interest rates enough-tightening policy enough-to corral

inflation without tipping the economy into a recession.

History is not necessarily on their side.

So how did the Fed acquire nearly $9 trillion worth of assets, and can they sell them without

The U.S. government relies on its central bank, the Federal Reserve, to manage the economy.

The Federal Reserve itself was created after a major crisis.

We didn't have a central bank and there was a large study done that concluded that part of what we needed

to avoid these future crises was a central bank that would be able to create more currency

The Federal Reserve has proven itself repeatedly over time, well positioned to be the

first responder in the face of any type of shock.

The Fed's most important tool is the federal funds interest rate.

The Fed funds rate right now is between 0%-0.25%.

It was highly unusual to have interest rates close to zero.

Basically, what the Fed does is it sets the rate at which banks borrow money between themselves overnight.

Now, from that short term rate comes all the other rates that people pay for in terms of mortgage

rates or home equity line of credit rates or automobile loan rates.

But ultimately, all rates are set by banks and by the market based off of that short term

overnight rate that the Federal Reserve sets.

Central banks around the world have kept interest rates low to stimulate further growth in the face of unusual

financial conditions in the U.S., bankers have resisted using negative interest rates.

Instead, they've delivered economic stimulus with tools like the bond portfolio.

They keep track of the spending with a balance sheet.

The liabilities are the currency in circulation they call Federal Reserve notes.

It's a primary liability on the asset side of the balance sheet.

Then the Federal Reserve has purchased a number of things, including government

It's all because you need to back those liabilities, that currency in circulation, with assets.

The Fed has the power to create more money when the financial system starts to break down.

For this reason, experts call it the "lender of last resort".

The lender of last resort was, in many ways, the original function of the Federal Reserve.

We didn't want to have a central bank originally because we were worried about there being so much power

aggregated in that way, but we needed this function and we might as well have it put in

place in a way that allows oversight and accountability

The Federal Reserve did not make much use of the balance sheet

On nine eleven. It was a balance sheet of roughly $750-$800

billion and that was the largest it had ever been at that point.

Dr. Ferguson left the central bank shortly before the housing crash took hold in 2008.

In that episode, nervous investors watching the real estate sector started to pull out of the entire market.

To prevent the full scale collapse of the financial system, Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke authorized a

large scale purchase of bonds, sending the balance sheet rapidly upward.

Quantitative easing, quantitative easing, quantitative easing, quantitative easing.

Quantitative easing was this mechanism of trying to to spur more credit creation.

And the core idea here was that by buying up safe instruments, treasuries and agency

mortgage backed securities, they could spur even more accommodative credit conditions and try to

Investors buy bonds to generate a modest but guaranteed return.

The U.S. Treasury bonds are perhaps the safest assets out there.

They're known as a risk-less asset, and most of the mortgages that the Federal Reserve is buying are what's

Many traditional investors recommend using a portfolio that balances these bonds against stocks.

But when the Federal Reserve steps into the market, it's taking these safe bonds.

That is going to make it from the investor perspective  more likely that they are ideally going to be

putting their capital work in ways that support private innovation.

Holding such a large balance sheet of nearly $9 trillion has contributed to

this environment, where a lot of money is flowing into risk assets.

And you started to see some crazy things companies that really don't have much of a business or able to

go the IPO route in 2020 and especially in 2021, and raise a lot of money.

There's going to be a lot of investors kind of left holding the bag.

Markets have come to rely on the Fed's purchasing patterns,

But by making the Federal Reserve so central in the efforts to get money to

companies in the spring of 2020 and the summer of 2020, we did create an overall

environment where we did far more to backstop some really

So if you were a large company, regardless of whether you were a highly creditworthy or not so creditworthy

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アメリカ中央銀行のリセッション開始か（Is The U.S. Top Bank About To Start A Recession?）

ultimately

pandemic

term

crisis