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  • New note this week forecasting home prices surging another 16%.

  • A new record low, less than a million homes for sale at the end of Decemberjust a 1.8 month supply.

  • Many cities around the world are facing an affordable housing shortage.

  • The Covid-19 pandemic has only made the crisis worse.

  • Lockdowns around the world severely disruptedglobal supply chains,

  • making it difficult to get building materials.

  • Travel restrictions and social distancing rules have also added to the labor crunch,

  • limiting the construction of new homes.

  • Moreover, the way we work has changed and a lot of people have decided to relocate,

  • meaning the usual patterns for housing supply and demand have upended.

  • These conditions have created a perfect storm, and in turn, prices have shot up.

  • A 2021 report revealed 88 out of 92 major cities are considered unaffordable.

  • The least affordable of them is Hong Kong, where the median house price is more than

  • 20 times the annual median household income.

  • But there is a solution that is garnering a lot of attention: modular homes.

  • These homes are constructed in controlled conditions and can take just a week or two to build.

  • So, is this the answer to the housing shortage around the world?

  • I've come to Top Hat to learn more about this industry.

  • Top Hat, located in the East Midlands of England, specializes in manufacturing and delivering modular homes.

  • The parts or 'modules' of these houses are built in a factory like this one.

  • How are these homes then taken to the sites?

  • They're lifted out of the factory, they're put on the back of a lorry, and they're then dropped into a foundation on site.

  • These are semidetached, side-to-side houses.

  • This will go into the foundation, and then that will be dropped on top.

  • All of it will be cladded by the time you leave the factory.

  • Cladding means materials such as wood, metal or brick are added as an extra layer to the

  • prefabricated home to provide resistance against harsh weather and add insulation.

  • It also connects the different modules together.

  • The less time you spend on site, the better. That is how we look at it.

  • We want to be able to drop the houses to site, get them zipped up and lived in as quickly as possible.

  • So modular houses like this one can take as little as 14 days to build,

  • much faster than a traditional home that can take six months.

  • Jordan says his team can construct homes faster and more accurately

  • than traditional builders because they build in controlled conditions.

  • This means they are uninterrupted by the weather and

  • can streamline and standardize production by controlling the process end to end.

  • Many parts are created using 3D printing.

  • So in order for MMC to really live up to the expectations we all have, you need to combine

  • the design process, production supply chain, so that you get a seamless flow around the factory.

  • Well, brick, especially clay brick is not great for the environment, and we wanted a solution.

  • And so, we created our own product.

  • It's also great, because it does all the things that brick is supposed to do, only better.

  • It's unbreakable.

  • It has the same fire-rating as brick.

  • And, it's less porous than brick; so it keeps the water out.

  • So, it outperforms bricks, technically, but it also allows us to get this design variation that you could never get anymore on-site.

  • We can build 27 Top Hat homes for every one brick and mortar traditionally built house.

  • So, over the next week, we'll finish approximately 10 houses.

  • And that's again, one of the hallmarks of print manufacturing, the scalability.

  • The global modular housing industry was worth $106 billion in 2020 and is expected to reach nearly $154 billion by 2026.

  • The industry is gaining traction in places like the United States, China, India, Canada and Japan.

  • But factory-built homes aren't new.

  • This form of construction dates back to the post-world war era, a time when many countries

  • were experiencing a severe shortage of houses, after many had been destroyed by bombs.

  • Several governments looked to prefabricated abodes to ramp up construction, aiming to

  • build as many homes as possible with the limited resources available at the time.

  • Between 1946 and 1949, more than 150,000 homes had been built in the United Kingdom alone,

  • with one aluminum version being manufactured every 12 minutes.

  • Many of these prefabricated houses were expected to last just 10 years.

  • and were widely considered to be ugly homes of low standard.

  • So there's been changes in the manufacturing process in general, with the advancements

  • in digital automation, and product automation.

  • You're building a different product today.

  • Just like cars today are very different than they were in the 1950s, and that advancement

  • gives us the opportunity to not only enhance quality in the homes, but also provide design

  • variations that you couldn't have done in the 1950s.

  • I've come to speak with one of the key voices in this industry.

  • Joseph Daniels is the CEO of Project Etopia, a company that aims to develop a more sustainable,

  • affordable and efficient approach to home building.

  • Anything new, you look at the electric vehicle market.

  • Electric vehicles, the reality is, they're better, they're smarter, they are faster.

  • People were unsure, we had huge infrastructure, right for gas cars.

  • It's exactly the same with housing.

  • We have got an infrastructure for traditional methods.

  • Traditional ways of doing things.

  • And because of that, it means that we're ingrained in this process, and it's very hard to change.

  • Modular housing, or what we call modern methods of construction,

  • which is like a modern way of building, allows us to get really sustainable results.

  • The environmental impact of the construction industry has come under intense scrutiny.

  • But Joseph sees prefabricated homes as a potential fix, citing less waste filling up landfills,

  • less energy spent transporting materials on and off site, and the use of more sustainable materials.

  • The construction material, it's an incredible, airtight material.

  • It's extremely unique, extremely strong.

  • Unlike anything else, we can do it fast, better and more advanced.

  • And so, this has all been inspired by enabling housing to step up to set the new baseline,

  • which means that if you get a home, it's not killing the planet.

  • It uses less energy, It's better controlled, it's better designed, it's better engineered.

  • And as the homes are brand new, it makes iteasier to include eco-friendly features, such as solar panels and more insulation.

  • One part of the housing crisis these homes immediately don't solve, however, is the sky-high prices.

  • How much would a home like this cost?

  • (The building) would be the similar cost for a traditional building.

  • That's because the land a homemodular or notsits on forms a substantial portion of overall costs.

  • It's a supply and demand problem, a space issueand depending on the home's design

  • and material requirements, a prefabricated home can get even pricier than a bricks and mortar build,

  • which leads to one of the biggest barriers for prospective modular home buyers and developers,

  • securing the funds to build them.

  • The mortgage industry classifies prefabricated homes as 'non-standard construction,'

  • which makes it more difficult to get a loan.

  • There are fewer mortgages available, and the ones that do exist will likely require a larger

  • deposit and offer less competitive interest rates.

  • This partly stems back to the stigma associated with the prefabricated homes of yesteryear.

  • There are worries buyers may struggle to resell modular homes or that they may decrease in

  • valuethough a few reports have pushed back at this notion.

  • But there are also still a lot of question marks that come along with most of the production happening off-site.

  • What happens if the developer runs out of money, or the factory closes down?

  • Who holds the rights for the property if it's still off-site?

  • This can make modular homes a riskier investment for lenders.

  • The lack of customization and strict building codes in areas vulnerable to natural disasters

  • are other drawbacks, according to some relators.

  • Still, the demand for new homes isn't going anywhere soon.

  • Billions of dollars have been invested into the modular housing space, with TopHat alone

  • securing £75 million from Goldman Sachs in 2019.

  • And with more developments coming online, Jordan tells me he's optimistic about the future of the industry.

  • Like all great manufacturing companies, you have to learn from data.

  • And you have to go through that learning curve of continuous improvement.

  • The market, thankfully, is big enough that there is, at the end of it, a reason to do it.

New note this week forecasting home prices surging another 16%.

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These houses take just weeks to build – but they’re no cheaper than traditional homes

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    Summer に公開 2021 年 12 月 13 日
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