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  • In 2021, the average age of vehicles on the road in America

  • reached a record 12.1 years. Cars are getting faster, safer,

  • more tech heavy, and the average age of a vehicle in the US is

  • rising.

  • It has been increasing for really ever since we've been

  • recording it.

  • Two big reasons for this say industry analysts cars have been

  • growing more durable and more expensive. Drivers are holding

  • on to their cars longer and cars are spending more time in the

  • used vehicle market before they head to the junkyard.

  • I have a 1993 80-series Land Cruiser that I bought brand new

  • 28 years ago and it has 215,000 miles on it and the engines

  • never been apart. I have serviced the vehicle regularly

  • and faithfully

  • Many buyers especially those with less money to spend are

  • seeking out used vehicles as new vehicle prices climb.

  • There is some concern that this is going to reduce the churn

  • rate or the number of folks that are going to be buying a new

  • vehicle.

  • So far though, plenty of Americans seem to be buying new

  • cars. New vehicle sales reached a record high of 17.5 million in

  • 2016. And the number of vehicles per household has gradually

  • increased over time even as vehicle age has risen. But every

  • driver that chooses to hold on to a car for another year is

  • postponing a trip to the dealership and some industry

  • analysts wonder if rising vehicle ages and prices indicate

  • trouble for new car sales in the future. Automakers are stuffing

  • cars with new technology and improvements, but will that be

  • enough to keep buyers wanting the latest and greatest.

  • In the 1970s, a car would be expected to last at most 100,000

  • miles. At that time vehicles had five digit odometers so the

  • typical odometer only went up to 99,999 miles. But now it is

  • typical for cars to last well over 100,000 miles and many will

  • make it to 200,000 or more. 25% of the cars on the road in the

  • US are at least 16 years old. There are some cars that last an

  • especially long time iSeeCars a search engine for car shoppers

  • publishes a list of the longest lasting vehicles and brands on

  • the road. In order to make the list at least 2.5% of the cars

  • with a certain nameplate have to make it to the 200,000 mile mark

  • about 1% of the average vehicle model well make it past 200,000

  • miles. But some models are disproportionately represented

  • among higher mileage vehicles, SUVs and trucks from Toyota,

  • Honda, and General Motors. The Toyota Land Cruiser a favorite

  • vehicle of offroaders United Nations forces and wealthy SUV

  • buyers tops the list. More than 16% of Land Cruisers on the road

  • have at least 200,000 miles on the odometer. It is followed by

  • another large Toyota SUV, the Sequoia.

  • Then when you go to the third vehicle, which is the Chevrolet

  • Suburban, you're now at 5%. So the first vehicle on the list

  • has three times the percentage of models with 200,000 plus

  • miles versus the third vehicle on the list showing how A)

  • quickly it drops from the first few vehicles on the list and B)

  • how truly unique and capable and durable the Toyota LandCruiser

  • is. It really stands out even among this group.

  • Toyota especially has a reputation for making cars that

  • last a very, very long time.

  • We have 100 vehicles on display right now in the building and

  • quite a few of them have an awful lot of miles on them, over

  • 200,000 miles 300,000 miles. We have one Japanese market Land

  • Cruiser Prado that was a highway service vehicle and it has over

  • 420,000 miles on it with the original engine in the frame and

  • it runs beautifully.

  • One Toyota owner's full size Tundra pickup lasted for more

  • than a million miles for example, the automaker bought

  • the truck back and gave the owner a new one.

  • It's pretty clear that Toyotas have not just a reputation for

  • durability, but a proven track record of durability just just

  • by glancing at this list. Typically the cars on this list

  • especially at the top of the list are body on frame cars you

  • see a lot of body on frame vehicles here and you see a lot

  • of Toyotas. Of course the Land Cruiser is both it's a body on

  • frame Toyota, and the next vehicle on the list the Toyota

  • Sequoia is a body on frame Toyota.

  • Consumer Reports also publishes a list of 10 cars it says are

  • most likely to make it to the 200,000 mile mark and it is

  • populated entirely with Toyotas and Hondas. It is important to

  • note that just because a car is not on the iSeeCars list doesn't

  • mean it is not reliable. Porsche for example, has a strong

  • reputation for reliability, but might not make it onto a list

  • like this because Porsche owners often drive their cars

  • conservatively to keep mileage low. In addition to being more

  • durable cars are also becoming more expensive. In December

  • 2020, the average price of a new vehicle in America reached a

  • record $38,000. Average new vehicle prices have been

  • bouncing around the mid $30,000 range for several years. As this

  • has happened, automakers have also appeared to trim their

  • portfolios of lower priced vehicles. In 2013, sales of cars

  • costing less than $20,000 made up 20.1% of total annual new car

  • sales. By 2020, that figure was 9.4%. Customers who are priced

  • out of buying new cars are likely to turn more and more to

  • use vehicles. But many owners are simply foregoing car

  • purchases altogether preferring to hold on to their cars for

  • another year or two.

  • Part of what makes it easier to hold on to vehicles longer is

  • the availability of parts of the internet even for obscure or old

  • cars. There are opportunities for shops even dealers to

  • provide services to cost conscious car owners looking to

  • delay the purchase of a new vehicle.

  • Fix operations of repair and servicing of vehicles is gonna

  • be an important part of dealers operations, and probably a

  • growing more important part of dealer operations. Because all

  • of these vehicles are going to need repairs. If you're going to

  • have a vehicle for 10 years or longer, you're probably going to

  • be visiting your car dealer more and more to try and repair all

  • the little issues that may pop up on that vehicle.

  • Outside of the vintage or classic car markets, consumers

  • might not be used to thinking of their cars as investments after

  • all cars are typically depreciating assets. But the

  • sheer cost of buying a new vehicle might make it more

  • appealing for consumers to put money into the cars they already

  • own. Even making major changes like swapping in a new engine.

  • So these trends could mean less demand for the new cars that

  • roll off assembly lines every year. So far, demand for new

  • vehicles hasn't waned, despite the rising age.

  • You think average age would lower the number of

  • opportunities for sales. But it doesn't seem to have done that.

  • It's been good news across the board for new vehicle dealers

  • used dealers and the service channel as well.

  • And there are reasons to think plenty of buyers will still want

  • the latest and greatest in new technology and features.

  • Lots of folks out there don't want to own a vehicle for 10

  • years, they want to keep a new vehicle around, they don't like

  • getting over a certain amount of mileage. And so those folks come

  • back to the market every three, five years, much more

  • frequently.

  • Automakers have a number of levers they can pull to induce a

  • customer to swap out their current vehicle for a new one.

  • New safety systems, better fuel economy, infotainment features,

  • cameras, and sensors can all entice buyers

  • Just like the iPhone 10 has to be substantially better than the

  • iPhone 9 for anybody to want to shell out another $1,000 to get

  • the latest and greatest much is the same in the new vehicle

  • market as well as in the used vehicle market. But that new

  • vehicle has to be substantially different than its used

  • counterpart, because folks are able to buy that use vehicle for

  • a substantial savings off the new vehicle price.

  • Automakers have always freshened their products from year to

  • year, but the pace at which they're doing so seems to be

  • accelerating.

  • The industry is finding that there's a lot of technology to

  • add on these vehicles. So the pace of of new components, new

  • capabilities, is constantly improving as well. And all of

  • that makes the vehicle market a much more rapidly changing

  • industry than it was just a few years ago.

  • There are a few short term reasons to think Americans might

  • hold on to their vehicles a bit longer.

  • The way people interact with their cars may be changing.

  • People staying at home more often for work than they have in

  • the past may actually cause people to consider if they need

  • that additional vehicle or if maybe we might actually see a

  • catalysts on the horizon for that approach to maybe reverse a

  • little bit where people decide they don't need quite as many

  • vehicles or maybe they want different vehicles for more

  • recreational purposes.

  • New vehicle sales hit a historic high of 17.5 million units in

  • 2016. Since then they have been falling. Vehicle sales in 2020

  • were an especially low 14 million due to lock downs,

  • production stops, and shortages of critical supplies such as

  • microchips. That means there is a smaller supply of both new and

  • new-ish used vehicles coming into the market, including

  • expired leases, or cars tossed from rental fleets. But there is

  • another change coming, the rise of the electric vehicle.

  • Technology is changing so quickly that an EV made one year

  • might be pretty obsolete in a very short time. Consider how

  • much electric vehicle ranges have risen in the last several

  • years.

  • There's products out there right now that only have a range of

  • 150 miles. Future products are suggesting they're going to have

  • ranges above 400 miles.

  • The upside is that it might bring more customers into the

  • market more frequently. The challenge is figuring out what

  • the residual values of EVs will be. It also might make customers

  • skittish to buy an electric vehicle in the first place.

  • If you bought an iPhone 5 Are you willing to sit with that

  • iPhone for 10 years till the iPhone 15 comes out. God knows

  • all of the capabilities that you'd be missing out on from

  • sticking to this technology at an early stage. Well, that's

  • what we're asking electric vehicle buyers to do. The

  • technology is still moving very quickly.

  • Nearly every major automaker is pursuing an EV strategy. But the

  • very rapid change and the pace of technological development

  • poses questions of vehicle value for dealers, banks, and

  • customers.

  • What is the value of a vehicle that gets half the range of a

  • new product that's coming out. And I think this is one of the

  • issues that the industry is struggling with. These retention

  • values are an important part of the industry, especially for the

  • financing side. Because the lending companies can't really

  • lease to a vehicle if they don't know what the residual values

  • are. Lenders may be reluctant to loan money to you if you're

  • going to buy a vehicle if they don't know what these values

  • are. So all of that can be very disruptive to the purchasing

  • side of the industry. And yet, with so much volatility in the

  • technology and development that's going on a daily basis,

  • it's going to be a moving target to try and estimate what these

  • retention values really are.

  • One solution for this says Chesbrough is vehicle

  • subscriptions, an idea that has been delved into a bit but not

  • yet fully explored. Subscription plans vary, but overall are

  • similar to leases with some important differences. They are

  • often more inclusive of the total cost of ownership. For

  • example, many subscription plans come with registration,

  • insurance, and maintenance costs bundled into the fee, so owners

  • don't have to account for those separately. Subscription plans

  • also allow customers to swap out one vehicle for another, for

  • example, a newer or different model as the customer's needs

  • change. Plans like these might allow buyers to sample new

  • vehicles such as electric cars without worrying that their

  • investment might be a bad one. And it might enable a car with

  • rapidly obsolescing technology to stay on the road a bit

  • longer. The European Union has said it plans to start phasing

  • out the sale of new internal combustion vehicles by 2035. New

  • York and California have recently set similar targets.

  • Higher fuel prices or fees such as a gas guzzler tax on

  • especially thirsty vehicles may turn consumers away from gas

  • cars shortening their usable lives.

  • The Covid 19 pandemic has changed what kinds of cars

  • people are buying. Sales of RVs and vehicles such as ATVs, and

  • dirt bikes have shot up and the transition away from passenger

  • cars and toward light trucks has quickened. These are signs

  • buyers are rethinking what kinds of cars they want to own,

  • especially as they continue to face the possibility of working

  • from home for a time. Others may simply be sitting on the

  • sidelines altogether, waiting to see what the future holds in

  • terms of new technology and their own needs. Millions of

  • Americans every year decide they want to plunk down the cash for

  • a brand new car but for many others there is nothing like

  • driving around a beloved old one.

In 2021, the average age of vehicles on the road in America

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アメリカの車社会の高齢化(Why The American Car Fleet Is Getting So Old)

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    moge0072008 に公開 2021 年 10 月 29 日
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