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  • China now badly needs a new growth engine.

  • China is far more reliant on real estate

  • as a driver of economic growth than anywhere else

  • in the world.

  • President Xi considers housing policy

  • as the central part of his common prosperity drive.

  • A lot of people look at green technology as a potential

  • saviour.

  • The meltdown at Evergrande, the world's most indebted real

  • estate company, has been unfolding in a dramatic way,

  • and it could signal a huge shift in the way

  • the Chinese economy works.

  • It's clear that the economic model that

  • drove China's world-beating growth over the last two

  • decades or more is running out of road.

  • What follows now is uncertain, but it

  • could entail significantly lower economic growth for the world's

  • second-largest economy.

  • This is important for the whole world

  • because China has been the major contributor to global growth

  • for the past few decades.

  • In the five years to 2018, China accounted for up to one-third

  • of global growth.

  • The problem, however, is that real estate has been driving

  • China's growth for too much and for too long,

  • and that cannot continue forever.

  • China now badly needs a new growth engine.

  • This footage shows 15 apartment buildings

  • being torn down in the southwestern city of Kunming

  • recently, as these buildings have stayed idle

  • for the past few years.

  • Such things are by no means uncommon in China,

  • as the country is now home to one of the world's largest

  • number of unoccupied apartments.

  • During my recent trip to the eastern city of Jinan,

  • I found the city is scattered with empty apartments

  • and empty buildings.

  • Many homebuyers were forced to move

  • into these half-built apartments,

  • as local developers were too cash-strapped to finish

  • these complexes.

  • This chart shows the extent of the problem compared

  • to other countries.

  • China is far more reliant on real estate

  • as a driver of economic growth than anywhere else

  • in the world.

  • Spain is the only place that came close in 2008,

  • and that bubble burst in spectacular fashion.

  • So Sun Yu, we've had this situation

  • of an overbuilt Chinese property market for a long time.

  • Why are people getting so worried about it now?

  • The reason people are getting so worried

  • this time is because President Xi Jinping

  • is in power in China this time.

  • And he famously said that "housing is for living,

  • not for speculating."

  • And President Xi considers housing policy

  • as the central part of its common prosperity drive.

  • Housing affordability in China right now

  • is among the worst in the whole world.

  • As of the end of last year, it would

  • take an average of 25 years of household income

  • in a southern hub of Shenzhen to purchase an apartment.

  • In contrast, the figure is about 13 in London and 8 in New York.

  • Apparently, President Xi couldn't tolerate this,

  • and he wants things to change.

  • And the solution is the so-called "three red lines,"

  • which is three financial ratios, mostly debt ratios,

  • that China's real estate developers must follow in order

  • to gain access to credit.

  • The policy, which was launched last August,

  • has had a huge impact on the industry,

  • as many developers, led by Evergrande,

  • are in deep financial trouble for failing

  • to follow these requirements.

  • So James, if China's real estate-driven growth

  • model is running out of steam, what

  • will be next growth engine for China?

  • So the question of what type of growth engine

  • can emerge in China to take up the slack

  • from the sputtering real estate sector

  • is really the $64m question going forward.

  • And I think a lot of people look at green technology

  • as a potential saviour.

  • China's record in this area is truly remarkable.

  • China's installed more solar power,

  • more wind power than any other country in the world.

  • And in the case of wind power, the amount

  • of wind farm capacity that was added last year

  • was greater than the rest of the world put together.

  • Also, in electric vehicles, it's quite stunning

  • what Chinese companies are doing.

  • So far, over 40 per cent of all the electric vehicles sold

  • in the world have been sold in China.

  • You can really tell that the Chinese government

  • is behind this.

  • One of the biggest figures to emerge from China over the last

  • month was an estimate by Zhang Xiaohui,

  • dean of the School of Finance at Tsinghua University,

  • who said that China would need between now and 2060 about

  • $46.6tn to put behind its carbon neutrality drive.

  • Just to put that number into perspective,

  • that means that every year between now and 2060,

  • China will be investing $1.2tn.

  • That is equivalent to the size of the entire Indonesian

  • economy.

  • So there's no question that China

  • is really serious about this.

  • It's just too early to say, I think,

  • whether or not this green technology area will

  • be big enough and attract enough investment to really compensate

  • for the flagging real estate sector.

  • Despite the huge potential for Green Revolution,

  • China still relies heavily on fossil fuel to power

  • its economic growth.

  • Coal-fired power plants currently

  • account for more than 2/3 of China's energy consumption.

  • Unfortunately, the authority has largely

  • underestimated the situation.

  • In the first eight months of this year,

  • China's coal output grew only four per cent thanks

  • to the closure of hundreds of coal mines across the country.

  • At the same time, the countries of energy consumption

  • picked up by 15 per cent, owing largely

  • to the post-pandemic global economic recovery that

  • boosted China's exports by more than 35 per cent

  • in the same period.

  • So this combined suggests that China is still

  • having a long way to go in making

  • a transition from an economy that's

  • driven by traditional economy by real estate to one

  • that's powered more by renewable energy

  • and other, more sustainable, models.

China now badly needs a new growth engine.

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Is China's economic model broken? | FT

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    joey joey に公開 2021 年 10 月 26 日
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