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  • let's talk about the economy stock markets around the world have been

  • pounded older prices have fallen off the cliff in just one week 3.3 million

  • Americans apply for unemployment almost 5 times the record a week later another

  • 6.6 million we had to make the impossible decision to layoff 98 percent

  • of our workforce this morning as kovat 19 spreads the global economy is

  • shutting down and it's unlike anything you've ever seen

  • a recession at least as bad as during the global financial crisis or worse but

  • what makes this collapse different what will it take to recover and are we

  • headed for a depression

  • welcome to another episode of start here from quarantine in my hotel room when it

  • comes to the economy we've really never been here before

  • not like this even though we have lived through some huge economic shocks there

  • was the Great Depression that started in 1929 and lasted a decade back in 2001

  • the 9/11 attacks also badly damaged the economy and of course the airline

  • industry the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis in the u.s. led to a global

  • financial crisis and triggered the Great Recession the longest in US history some

  • countries still haven't recovered and now there's a pandemic the swiftness and

  • severity of the shock to the global economy that is absolutely unprecedented

  • this financial crisis is both different and worse because first and foremost

  • it's a health crisis so economists know we can't just fix the economy that's

  • like trying to fix your house while it's still on fire if we don't try to control

  • the spread of the virus then the suffering would be much bigger let's

  • take another look at the graph from our last episode it shows a steep spike in

  • the number of cases if we don't contain kovat 19 and the pressure that puts on

  • hospitals so countries right now are trying to flatten that curve by locking

  • down and enforcing social distancing but that has consequences the more

  • aggressively we try to slow the spread and save lives the deeper the recession

  • so the irony is that to save the economy you have to shut it down first

  • that's why economists expect a serious recession maybe even a depression which

  • goes on for longer and is more severe well matters are more than avoiding an

  • all-out depression is protecting people's house particularly protecting

  • the most vulnerable and so doing whatever we can to address the health

  • impacts of the crisis for a lot of people this

  • is going to be painful for some it already is I'm on the lookout to speak

  • to people who are really worried about their livelihoods because of the

  • lockdowns nearly every sector of the economy is

  • getting hit right now but service jobs are most at risk

  • they require face time with customers and everyone's being told to stay home

  • look at India where 1.3 billion people are under lockdown 80% of the workforce

  • are self employed or earn a daily wage 120 million of them are migrant workers

  • many have now lost their jobs in the cities

  • in South Africa soldiers are on patrol to make sure 57 million people stay home

  • the unemployment rate there before kovin my team was already 30% almost half of

  • South Africans who were poor the reality is that you know if they don't go and

  • work and it could mean the difference between a meal or not so how can you

  • even get your head around that kind of global unemployment and economic

  • stagnation you might be familiar with the law of supply and demand

  • well the coronavirus has managed to take out both first there was a supply shock

  • as factories businesses and borders closed that triggered a demand shock

  • because industries don't need raw materials if they aren't producing and

  • the lockdowns mean people aren't buying things or can't afford to because

  • they're not earning money look at China which in today's globalized economy is

  • the factory to the world the Kona virus outbreak virtually shut it down

  • it's productions dropped by 25% over the last three months that is a big shock to

  • the world economy China is also a massive buyer on the international

  • market things like raw materials all kinds of cars and agricultural products

  • so that's also had an effect the biggest concern in China China was already

  • heading for minus 1% projection on GDP this year and once the China is getting

  • out of it its own health crisis Europe their biggest market isn't getting into

  • theirs which basically means that we are seeing a huge demand contraction in the

  • international trade as the virus began to spread those supply and demand shocks

  • spread to other countries too then the markets started to panic stock indexes

  • in New York London Tokyo all had devastating sessions several times over

  • in the US the Dow lost almost 3,000 points in just one day the most ever so

  • how do we fix all this again economists say we need to deal with the

  • pandemic first but there are things that both central banks and governments are

  • doing to ease some of the pain the job of a central bank is to make sure

  • there's a steady supply of money flowing through the global financial system and

  • in a time of crisis they also make sure the credit markets don't freeze up so

  • central banks around the world have pumped trillions of dollars into the

  • banking system to make sure banks and businesses can bounce back when this is

  • all over they've also cut interest rates to make

  • loans even cheaper the central bank in the United States the Federal Reserve

  • System has done something else too it's made sure other central banks around the

  • world can borrow enough US dollars it's the currency the world runs on u.s.

  • dollars are to businesses what toilet paper is to households they don't want

  • to run out of US Dollars before this crisis is passed but central bank

  • heroics alone enough governments need to step up to

  • world leaders have pledged hundreds of billions of dollars to help people

  • businesses and the health sector battle this crisis the British government for

  • example put forward four hundred and thirty five billion dollars of the

  • United Kingdom GDP to try to get us through this crisis because it is a

  • method of life for this in the US the federal government came up

  • with a 2.2 trillion dollar relief package that's about ten percent of its

  • GDP the largest in American history this will deliver urgently needed relief to

  • our nation's families workers and businesses but not everyone has

  • convinced those rescue packages going to be enough dr. doom Nouriel Roubini

  • The Economist who called the 2008 financial crisis two years before it

  • happened he's definitely not convinced in fact he's warning that containment

  • measures had not been sufficient enough and that the fiscal stimulus package is

  • neither large enough nor is it been enacted swiftly enough to seriously

  • mitigate the risks not just of a recession everybody agrees that's going

  • to happen but to mitigate the risks of possibly a depression but other

  • countries just don't have that kind of cash especially if they're struggling

  • economically or dealing with conflict famine even other diseases the UN

  • forecasts that income losses in developing countries because of the

  • coronavirus could exceed two hundred and twenty billion dollars

  • the economies that will have the toughest time crawling out of it are

  • really the poorest nations because they were in the worst position going into

  • the crisis and they will have the hardest time shaking off the negative

  • effects of it economists are bracing for things to get worse in the short term

  • but they also see this as an opportunity to fix what was broken they have a

  • saying never let a good crisis go to waste we do also have to think about

  • sustainability about the sustainability of our planet

  • that's about the health and integrity of our ecosystems do we have a resilient

  • economy do we have a resilient health system food production systems can we be

  • sure that when a crisis like this happens and hits the economy we are able

  • to go on feeding people and keeping people healthy to stop a descent into

  • social instability which can very often follow from a deep and protracted

  • depression those are big questions for world leaders to answer for right now

  • many of us economists included are looking to them to make some tough

  • decisions to fight this pandemic and relieve the pain a lot of people are

  • already hurting

  • we don't know when we'll be back on the start here set but not to worry we're

  • still going to be bringing you more episodes any way we can in the meantime

  • our website aljazeera.com has all the latest on the corona virus pandemic I'll

  • see you next week

let's talk about the economy stock markets around the world have been

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How will the global economy ever recover from the coronavirus? | Start Here

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    joey joey に公開 2021 年 10 月 14 日
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