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In 2016, Chipotle reported that its profits had fallen
95% after a series of food safety issues that sickened
hundreds of people and sent its stock price plunging.
E. coli outbreak that caused Chipotle restaurants to shut
down. Investors aren't the only ones steering clear of
Chipotle. I mean, it just keeps happening to Chipotle and
nobody else. Even if it's not associated with their food this
time...it's happened again.
They've had to close the store because customers get sick.
It had lost customers' trust and Wall Street's adoration.
Its future was uncertain.
Would Chipotle ever be able to return to its high-growth days?
But the Mexican-style food chain has come back from the brink
with the help of a new CEO.
Consumers are once again returning to the place that
popularized burritos the size of a baby and helped the avocado
become one of America's favorite fruits.
Analysts say that its food safety woes are now firmly in the
past, and its stock hit a new record in July 2019 and has kept
climbing, peaking at $857.90
on September 9th. Now, there's just one question for the
chain. How can it keep soaring and avoid another fall?
Chipotle was never supposed to take off.
Its founder, Steve Ells, only started the restaurant to make
some quick cash to pay for his real passion
project...launching his very own fine dining restaurant.
Ells got the idea for Chipotle from his time in San Francisco,
where he was working as a line cook for celebrity chef
Jeremiah Tower.
The Mission District in the California city is known for its
taquerias. That's also where the Mission burrito was invented.
The burrito is oversized, stuffed with rice and other
ingredients, and wrapped in foil.
Sound familiar? With a loan from his dad, Ells moved to
Colorado and opened the first Chipotle Mexican Grill near the
University of Denver campus in 1993.
I think one of the most amazing things about Chipotle is that
the stores today don't look that different from the original
location by the University of Denver.
Really, the structure is very much the same, customized,
assembly line process, very simple but aesthetically pleasing
locations.
Chipotle's now quintessential minimalist layout wasn't a
deliberate design decision.
It came from a need to be cheap.
In that very first Chipotle, the table bases were pipes and
the counter where you paid was made from barn metal.
Ells kept the menu and operations simple because Chipotle was
still his backup plan.
Chipotle
became profitable within a few months and Ells was able to
quickly repay his father's loan.
A year and a half after opening his first restaurant, Ells
opened a second, then a third in 1996.
In the early days, your options for Mexican food were so
limited and so to see this assembly line burrito company come
up and out of nowhere.
Yeah, it was amazing how quickly word spread among the Denver
market and how quickly this company really rose to prominence,
at least in Denver during the mid-nineties.
He kept going with additional funding from his dad and small
business loans. Then he got a little help from a name you
might recognize: McDonalds.
Under the leadership of longtime CEO Mike Quinlan, the fast
food giant started investing in Chipotle in February 1998.
Three years later, it was Chipotle's majority stakeholder.
The investment helped McDonald's branch out of burgers and
diversify its business.
It also helped the fast-food chain compete directly with a
rival on the rise:
Taco Bell. The money from McDonald's helped Chipotle expand
across the United States.
Most restaurant chains, including McDonald's, turn to
franchising for quick and widespread growth.
But Chipotle didn't want to.
Handing over the operations of its restaurants would have also
mean handing over some of its profits.
Ultimately, pressure from McDonald's led Chipotle to franchise
a few restaurants to several McDonald's franchisees at the end
of 2002.
In January 2006, the burrito maker went public.
Chipotle's IPO gave McDonald's the opportunity to refocus on
its core brand at the time.
McDonald's was in the middle of a turnaround after years of
turbulence that started soon after it initially invested in
Chipotle. After the IPO, McDonald's started selling off its 91
% stake in Chipotle.
By the end of 2006, it no longer owned a piece of Chipotle.
Just 8 months after McDonald's sold its stake in Chipotle, the
burrito chain killed the franchise model and took back control
of all restaurants.
The investment had paid off for McDonald's.
Investors loved Chipotle.
And the economy was booming.
By 2007, its annual sales were more than a billion dollars.
Then the recession hit.
Like most restaurants, Chipotle felt it.
In 2009, it held the second largest market share, 11% of the
entire Latin American limited service restaurant industry,
according to Euromonitor.
Yet the company had its slowest year ever of same store sales
growth that year, and its stock tumbled.
In 2009, Chipotle decided that it needed a change.
Besides building the company, Ells didn't have any business
experience. The company promoted Monty Moran, its chief
operating officer, to serve as co-CEO alongside Ells.
Obviously Steve was the visionary for Chipotle and had a very
much a culinary background.
But I think Monty brought more of a traditional restaurant,
you know, background to the equation.
And sometimes with the right mix of personalities, you
can make a co-CEO model work.
Chipotle started thinking up other restaurant concepts with a
similar set-up. It created ShopHouse, an Asian-inspired chain.
Soon after followed Pizzeria Locale and Tasty Made.
If those names sound unfamiliar, it's for a good reason.
Chipotle has since abandoned them after they failed to catch
on. It came down to just competition and lack
of simplicity and lack of brand messaging when it came to
ShopHouse. Even when experimenting with offshoots, Chipotle
didn't abandon its core business.
Between 2009 and 2015, the company more than doubled its
global total store count.
New stores meant new customers.
Unlike Taco Bell or McDonald's, Chipotle wasn't relying on
value meals or limited time offers to get them.
Instead, Chipotle rolled out a series of ads in 2012 and 2013
about how its sources ingredients from sustainable farms, an
initiative it started in 2001.
Investors cheered for Chipotle's expansion and the stock, hit
$758 .61
a share in August 2015.
But it would be years before it soared that high again.
In October 2015, food safety officials linked Chipotle to an
E. coli outbreak that sickened people across 11 states.
It was not Chipotle's first brush with foodborne illness.
Earlier in 2015, the chain had already been linked to
norovirus and salmonella incidents.
But it caught the public's attention.
22 customers were hospitalized.
The Centers for Disease Control traced 60 cases of E.
coli infection back to Chipotle.
In December, Boston health officials linked an area Chipotle's
to another foodborne illness outbreak.
At least 80 people had symptoms consistent with norovirus.
It started to seem like every time Chipotle reopened a store
after a food poisoning incident, it had to close another one.
Chipotle
co-CEO Ells apologized on The Today Show, but that wasn't
enough. Sales at Chipotle locations opened at least a year,
plunged. So did its stock price.
For the next few years, Chipotle shares were worth only a
little more than half of its all time high.
But more importantly, the incidents damaged Chipotle's
reputation with customers.
The company had long boasted about the quality of its
ingredients. Its meat was raised without antibiotics, its
produce was locally grown and organic.
Chipotle called this policy "food with integrity."
It had been part of its advertising and marketing for years.
Chipotle
sprung into action.
It changed its food safety protocols, it altered its sick
leave policy for employees, and it gave away many, many free
burritos. Still, despite its best efforts, revenue for
2016 declined by 13%.
Same-store sales plunged by 20 %.
Amid Chipotle's troubles, Pershing Square Capital Management,
a hedge fund managed by investor Bill Ackman, took a 9.9
% stake in the company.
In September 2016, the news lifted the stock temporarily.
Ackman is known for building a stake in a company and
instigating changes that will boost the company's stock price.
Ultimately, in December 2016, Ackman was able to make a deal
with Chipotle's management to name two directors to the board.
Chipotle's hand-picked an additional two independent
directors. Just two days before the board changes, Moran had
stepped down as co-CEO and left the board.
Chipotle's founder was now the only one steering the ship.
He was too much at the center of everything, whether or not it
was strategic positioning, operational decisions, media and
industrial relations. He was trying to cover it all instead of
bringing in delegated expert talent that you should start to
have in the later life stages of a business. That's a problem
we've seen a lot with Travis Kalanick or maybe Elon Musk.
The company debuted an ad campaign and rolled out two menu
additions, chorizo and queso.
It was hoping to find its footing again when there was another
food safety issue.
In July 2017, a Sterling, Virginia location was tied to an
outbreak of norovirus.
In November 2017, nearly a year after Ells became the chain's
sole chief executive, he stepped down.
And Chipotle started looking for its next CEO.
In this case, at least, the board took the time to try to find
somebody. Enter Brian Niccol in March 2018.
Before Chipotle, Niccol was chief executive of a rival
Mexican-food chain: Taco Bell.
At Taco Bell, he introduced popular limited-time offers like
Nacho Fries, as well as Taco Bell breakfast.
Niccol also pushed Taco Bell into the digital age.
As this company matures, it was always going to look a lot
more like a traditional quick service restaurant company.
And that's why I think that's somebody with that background
like Brian certainly helped to breathe new life into the
company. While Chipotle poses a threat to Taco Bell, the
inverse is not necessarily true.
Fast-casual chains like Chipotle appeal to more
health-conscious consumers who have a little extra cash to
burn. The fast-casual segment of the restaurant industry is
growing the fastest.
On the other hand, fast-food chains, such as McDonald's, are
largely using price hikes to boost sales.
And Chipotle was now betting that Niccol could do the same for
them. Nicole's primary mission was to bring back customers who
left during the foodborne illness scares.
So far, Niccol has taken some tried-and-true methods from his
Taco Bell playbook to make that happen.
He even moved Chipotle's headquarters from chilly Denver to
sunny Southern California, right in the backyard of Taco
Bell's own HQ.
Chipotle
has also recruited several executives with Taco Bell
experience, like its chief marketing officer and the head of
its digital marketing.
Brian is one of the most talented people I've ever worked
with. We have a good rapport.
We were friends even outside of work, and so having the chance
to work with him again was a great opportunity and being on a
great brand like Chipotle, that opportunity was hard to pass
up. But Chipotle is still a different company from Taco Bell.
I think people associate Taco Bell and Chipotle as they're
both Mexican, but that's a lot of where the similarities end.
I think Chipotle is much more of a food brand, Taco Bell was
much more entertainment. I mean, we had to come out with
something every four to six weeks and Chipotle isn't that way.
Niccol has also leaned into the food delivery boom.
Chipotle struck a deal with third-party delivery service
DoorDash. We're lucky at Chipotle.
We have a very young consumer base, and that is, frankly, how
they want to consume food.
What we've been surprised with on delivery is how many new
customers have really come to Chipotle just for delivery.
And in March 2019, the burrito chain launched a loyalty
program. For every $125 customer spend, they earn a free
entree. Within four months, it grew to five million members.
The loyalty program also drives customers to Chipotle's app.
That lets the company learn more about them and cater its
strategy to what its patrons want.
Niccol has also tried to improve the experience for digital
customers. Stores have been adding second assembly lines for
digital orders, online order pick-up shelves, and Chipot-lane
drive thrus for digital orders.
These additions are meant to bring Chipotle's trademark
efficiency to off-premise dining.
These investments have helped to grow Chipotle's digital
sales. In its second quarter of 2019, digital sales nearly
doubled. They made up 18% of total sales in the quarter under
Niccol. Chipotle has also been testing new food items to
expand its limited menu.
Fast-food chains like Taco Bell regularly roll out new limited
time items to drive traffic.
As chief marketing officer and then chief executive of Taco
Bell, Nicole regularly oversaw the creation of new menu items.
But Chipotle is different.
Before Nicole, it rarely made additions to its menu.
Customers could return and order their usual without thinking
twice. But now Chipotle wants you to think about changing up
your order. We're not going to be launching, you know, five
products a year or six products a year, but we will sprinkle
things in to bring news, to bring interest, and to just kind
of freshen up things. But we have no intention of really
expanding our menu in any big way.
The chain launched carne asada, another steak protein option,
in September 2019 for a limited time.
It's the chain's first new protein in three years.
It also happens to cost 50 cents more than steak, its most
expensive protein. And it's working on a replacement for its
queso, which launched in 2017 to tepid reviews.
Even after tweaking the recipe, it still wasn't a hit.
The chain began testing a Queso Blanco in several markets in
July. It's expected to launch the cheese dip nationwide in
2020. Nichols initiatives are paying off for Chipotle.
Despite a foodborne illness incident in Ohio in 2018 that
sickened hundreds, the company finished the year up 49
percent, making it one of 2018's top performing stock.
Chipotle's market share in the Latin-American limited service
restaurant industry also grew to 22.4%
in 2018, according to Euromonitor.
It remained in second place, but it managed to steal share
from other chains and independently owned restaurants.
Redemption came in July 2019 when the stock hit an all time
high, surpassing the record it set way back in 2015.
The stock went on to climb even higher, but as October 2019
started, shares were up a whopping 88 % over the past 10
months. But so much love from investors puts even more
pressure on Chipotle.
With a single share of Chipotle worth more than $800, the
company has to answer one question: where does its stock go
from here? Compared to the stocks of other restaurant
companies -- like McDonald's, Starbucks and Yum Brands --
shares of Chipotle are pricey. In October 2019, Chipotle had a
forward price-to-earnings ratio of 46. Starbucks had the next
highest price-to-earnings ratio of 27. Chipotle has nearly
2,500 locations in the U.S.
It thinks it can add even more.
The company also has a limited international footprint, with
only 39 stores open outside of the U.S. Niccol told analysts
on Chipotle's third-quarter conference call that the company
could accelerate expansion in Canada, if that business
improves. Outside of North America, however, expansion will
likely be slower. Niccol said that Chipotle is "in the earlier
innings" in Europe. As for stores that already exist, its
focus is on digital and delivery to drive sales growth.
According to Deloitte, customers tend to spend 20% more on
online orders. Now all Chipotle has to do is live up to
investors' high expectations.