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  • Facilitator: Stephen Bush is a lecturer in the School of Mathematical Sciences at UTS.

  • He's recently submitted his PhD which looks at the statistical study of choice.

  • So Stephen Bush, you're a lecturer in the School of Mathematical Sciences but you're

  • studying the statistical analysis of choice. What does that mean?

  • Stephen: So when we talk about the statistical analysis of choice, what we want to do is

  • we want to analyse the way people make choices so we want to get people to make choices.

  • Then we want to decompose the choices that people make into the reasons why people are

  • actually making the choices. Facilitator: Can you explain that in a little

  • bit more detail? Stephen: So suppose you're buying a mobile

  • phone. There are lots of different reasons why you might select a particular mobile phone.

  • Maybe it's the way it looks; maybe it's the memory that's in the mobile phone; maybe it's

  • the price - it's a good price. So what we want to do there is actually get

  • people to make real life choices and then take that information and actually build a

  • statistical model figuring out exactly what is driving that choice.

  • Facilitator: So how do you go about your research? Stephen: So my research is looking at exactly

  • how to lay out one of these experiments. So when a respondent sits at a computer screen

  • and does one of the experiments, they'll be presented with a series of what we call choice

  • sets. In each choice set is a single decision. So we present different competing products

  • or different competing policy directions and we ask people to make a choice based on the

  • information that we've provided. We take that information and we use statistical models

  • to break down that series of choices into the different attributes or features.

  • Facilitator: How would this play out in our everyday lives?

  • Stephen: So people make choices all the time. As soon as someone gets up in the morning,

  • they're thinking about what they're going to wear for the day and they need to trade-off

  • between different alternatives. We might want to choose between the T-shirt or a business

  • shirt. If you're going to a business meeting, you probably don't want to wear the T-shirt.

  • So people think about why they're making the choices and the features of, say, that shirt

  • that make it that more desirable - make that option more desirable.

  • Facilitator: So what about in retail? Have retailers cottoned on to what you're doing?

  • Stephen: Some of them have. A lot of companies that actually produce consumer goods are actually

  • starting to contact places like CenSoC and doing projects with us. So if you think about

  • a supermarket shelf, people are being faced with a choice every time they pick up an item.

  • There are usually different brands. There may be lights; there may be full strength;

  • there may be cheaper alternatives; more expensive alternatives. Every time someone, say, buys

  • a can of soup, they need to choose between all of these different options.

  • Facilitator: Can you look at what happens if somebody can't decide?

  • Stephen: Yes. One of the areas of my research was actually developing a model where I present

  • two or three options. But I allow people to be indecisive. I allow people to say well

  • I like those two or those three things just as much. So I want to have the option to tell

  • the researcher that because that's actually really useful information for us as the statistician.

  • Because that's telling us these two things are just as good.

  • Facilitator: Give me an example of a survey that you've done recently?

  • Stephen: So one survey that I worked on recently was actually looking into Australians' views

  • towards different countries; how much people trust those different countries and also different

  • threats to Australia's future. Facilitator: So what's next then?

  • Stephen: So the next thing we're looking at is what sort of light bulbs people would like

  • to buy. Now this project's actually being funded by the Australian Research Council.

  • It's looking into different sorts of energy efficient lighting. Again, we're looking towards

  • Australia's future. What we want to look at is, let's say, different

  • types of light; whether it be a bright yellow light or a blue light or a white light; how

  • long different globes last; how much these globes actually cost. So these sorts of things

  • we think might be important to light globe consumers but we want to make sure.

  • Facilitator: It's fascinating to think that what might seem like a very complex process

  • going on in my mind when I'm going to make a choice about something, can actually be

  • broken down into very simple mathematical models.

  • Stephen: Let's be honest. All of these models are just an approximation to the way people

  • behave. The way people behave is so complex. But if we can simplify the process, we may

  • get some really useful information out of that and that's what I really aim to do here.

  • Facilitator: Stephen Bush, thank you very much and good luck with your statistical analysis

  • of choice. Stephen: Thank you.

Facilitator: Stephen Bush is a lecturer in the School of Mathematical Sciences at UTS.

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A2 初級

UTSサイエンス。選択の研究 (UTS Science: Study of Choice)

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    Hhart Budha に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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