And frankly, a lot of investors would rather never

speak of it again.

The outlook for 2021 is much brighter.

Investors broadly think it's going

to be a good environment for global stocks,

the worst is behind us after all.

But last year taught us the pessimism pays.

So what can go wrong?

The first thing is that it's not generally a great idea

when investors broadly agree with each other.

And right now, they do.

The vaccine is going to be difficult to roll out globally.

The virus itself is still biting into the global population.

And the damage on companies and economies around the world

is going to take time to shift.

If any of these things deteriorates

more than the market currently anticipates then

you're going to see a lot of investors

heading for the exit from risky bets all at once.

Central bankers saved the day in 2020

alongside finance ministers when they

pumped trillions of dollars into the financial system.

The issue now is whether they can hold the line.

If we see any signs that they might pull back

on that support, then you could see a serious wobble

in markets.

We've seen this before in 2013 with the famous Taper Tantrum,

and we could easily see it again.

Rate hikes are basically a non-starter.

But if you just start to hear a little bit of uncertainty,

watch out.

Then there's inflation.

Now, this has been the market's bogeyman for years.

People have been saying it's going to make a comeback ever

since the crisis of 2008.

And they've been wrong every time.

But maybe this time is different.

And if it is, you could see a real hit

to the government bond market and, potentially, also

to equities, too.

It's a tail risk, but it's worth watching.

Then there's politics.

And in this regard, keep a really close eye on US big tech

stocks, which really dragged the markets up

from their lows of March last year.

The new administration in the States

is, some investors think, more likely to impose taxation

and regulation on this sector.

Now, all of this, all of the extra spending that the US

administration might bring through,

could be great news for different stocks -

for small-cap stocks, for sectors that have

underperformed over the past few months.

But any damage to big tech, which

makes up such a big part of the US market,

is definitely worth watching.

Then there's the dollar.

It's been sliding for months, but some investors

are starting to wonder if it could

accelerate and really jack up other currencies

around the world.

At a certain point authorities in other countries

will really start to bristle at this.

And they might start to push back.

So watch out, and good luck.