Ethiopianleadershavesofarresistedinternationalpressureformediationwith a Tigrayrebelforces, butfalloutfromthetwoweekconflicthasthepotentialtodestabilize.
Ethiopia's primeministerhaspromised a finalmilitaryoperationinthecomingdaysandsaidhe's readytoreintegratetheswellingnumbersofrefugeesnowtryingtosurviveonthebanksoftheTech.
Butmanypeoplethinkthatthiscouldbecome a muchmoreentrenchedandprotractedconflict, onewhichturnswiththeTPLFbecominganinsurgencymovementin a verydifficultterrainandmountainousandruggedregion.
Thionegotiatedsettlementin a veryweakenedposition, oronewhichisfollowingthestatedaims, whichistoremovetheTPLFadministrationfromtwobryonandpreventthemandreplacethemwith a provisionaladministration.
Yes, I thinktherearewiderregionalimplicationsandthepossibilityofprotractedconflictwe'realreadyseeingcouldcouldhavereallyterribleeffectsforthebroaderHornofAfricaregionforEastAfricaAnayarea, whichhasseencyclicalconflictovermanydecades, onwhichwejust, I think, under a swell, theemergenceofAbby's leadership, beginningtolooktowardsincreasingintegrationsandstabilityasyourreportshows, andunverifiablereportsofEritreanfightersbeinginvolvedinalongsidethefederalgovernmentforces.
OntheinfluxoftensofthousandsreportedbytheUNHCRupto 25,000, asyourreportputit, increasingeverydaypotentiallyintohundredsofthousandsofofciviliansfleeingtheconflictinSudancouldhave a animpacton a regionwhichhasitsownintercommunaltensionsonwhichhasbeenexperiencesinitsowntraveltroubles, whichcouldhave a broaderimpactontheSudanesetransition.
Iftheconflictbecomesworse, ifitbecomesmoreprotractedandlossesahfeltonbothsides, therecouldbeanopeningattractionfor a negotiatedsettlementonbringing a trucetothisconflict.
WhetherthatwouldbemandatedthroughtheUnitedNationswithAfricanstatesmaninchargesuchasthetheAUchairCyrilRam, opposeouronthegodchair, a PrimeMinisterAbdallahHamdan.