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  • The Trump presidency is full of viral photos.

  • But take a look at this one, from 2018:

  • It's the leaders of America's closest allies, all looking in one direction,

  • and President Trump looking in another.

  • It's just a photo, but it speaks to one of the biggest questions in the world right now.

  • Almost 70 years ago, the US built a network of alliances that helped make it

  • the most powerful country on earth.

  • But today the future of those alliances is in doubt.

  • And they were in trouble even before Donald Trump took office.

  • Now, the world is watching a US election that could determine what the future looks like.

  • So how did we get here?

  • What is Trump's vision for America's role in the world?

  • And what's the alternative?

  • In the beginning, the US had just one alliance:

  • with France, during the Revolutionary War against Great Britain.

  • But after the US won the war, it backed out.

  • And that's because, back then, allying with another country usually served one purpose:

  • Alliances were primarily used to fight and win specific wars.

  • The US was already protected by two giant oceans.

  • So for the next 150 years, America was alone.

  • Until 1941.

  • "The United States of America was suddenly and deliberately attacked."

  • When Japan attacked a US naval base, it shattered the idea

  • that oceans could protect the US any longer.

  • So they formed an alliance with these countries, and declared war on Japan and its allies.

  • Together, they won the war, but faced a very different world in the aftermath.

  • After World War II, there were only two major powers: the US and the Soviet Union.

  • European countries were weak,

  • and some worried the Soviets might invade them and spread communism.

  • To protect against that, the US formed a collective alliance with 11 other countries:

  • the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO.

  • The agreement was simple:

  • An armed attack on one member would be regarded as an attack on all,

  • requiring every member to come to its assistance.

  • But the reality was more complicated.

  • The US had a massive military, while these countries had weak ones, if any at all.

  • That meant NATO was really a guarantee by the US to protect all these countries from attacks.

  • It was risky, but it gave the US leverage over countries that now depended on them for protection.

  • It used that leverage to align those countries with its own foreign policy.

  • And many allowed the US to build military bases inside their borders,

  • giving the US a first line of defense against the Soviets.

  • But the US also saw threats elsewhere.

  • In 1948, North Korea had become a communist country. In 1949, so did China.

  • So the US signed individual alliances with six more countries.

  • The US also signed a collective alliance with 21 countries in Latin America.

  • By 1960, the Soviet Union was surrounded by countries that, if attacked,

  • would trigger war with the US.

  • For hundreds of years, alliances had been used to fight and win specific wars.

  • This was something new:

  • The real gamble that the United States was taking

  • was the idea that it would use alliances to keep wars from starting at all.

  • One of the first tests of this idea came in Berlin.

  • The city lay deep in Soviet- controlled East Germany, but was divided

  • between the NATO countries and the Soviets.

  • In 1961, the Soviet leader told western powers to leave.

  • Instead, the US and its allies quickly moved troops into Berlin.

  • And the US publicly committed to uphold its promise:

  • In response, the Soviets built a wall through the city -- and backed down.

  • The US guarantee also helped prevent further wars in Taiwan and Korea.

  • It proved that this system worked, but only if America's enemies and allies actually

  • trusted that the US would follow through.

  • So for the next 60 years, US presidents said it out loud.

  • "A nation cannot remain great if it betrays its allies and lets down its friends."

  • Our ties with Japan and our European allies are stronger than ever.

  • "We will strengthen our historic ties and assure them of our support and firm commitment.”

  • And it worked: The Soviets believed it.

  • World War III never happened.

  • And the US won the Cold War.

  • "History is unfolding in the Soviet Union."

  • "Last one out of the Soviet Union, please turn out the lights."

  • "The United States recognizes and welcomes

  • the emergence of a free, independent, and democratic Russia."

  • Between 1989 and 1991, the Soviet Union and its communist allies in Europe fell apart.

  • Now the US was the world's only superpower. And most of its allies were safe from invasion.

  • But for NATO, that created an existential question:

  • Should the alliance go out of business because its primary adversary had disassembled itself?

  • Or should it find a new case for its being?

  • European leaders, and many American leaders, supported keeping NATO around,

  • to support democracy and security in Europe.

  • "Ultimately the best strategy to ensure our security, and to build a durable peace,

  • is to support the advance of democracy elsewhere."

  • "It would be a catastrophe for American interests

  • if instability were to alter the current situation in Europe."

  • "We want the peace to last."

  • In 1999, NATO added 3 former Soviet allies: Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary.

  • And NATO started intervening in conflicts outside of its membership.

  • In 1999, it bombed Serbian forces fighting in Kosovo.

  • NATO also helped the US invade Afghanistan after the 9/11 attacks in 2001,

  • and supported parts of the war in Iraq in 2003.

  • Meanwhile, in Asia, the US had stayed close with South Korea and Japan to counter North Korea.

  • But the fall of the Soviet Union had made the alliances with these countries harder to justify.

  • Those relationships in a lot of ways, went adrift.

  • And that all created something of a soft strategic underbelly in Southeast Asia.

  • Some US leaders began to question the cost of those alliances.

  • The US had asked NATO allies to spend 2% of their GDP on defense,

  • but few countries were meeting that goal.

  • So they urged NATO, along with South Korea and Japan, to increase their spending --

  • while still reaffirming its promise to back its allies.

  • Their cause is America's cause.”

  • We will defend our allies and our interests."

  • America will always act, alone if necessary, to protect our people and our allies.”

  • Still, these alliances were drifting.

  • And two countries were starting to test their weak points.

  • Russian planes again bombing Georgian targets this morning…”

  • In 2004 NATO had added seven more members

  • including these three, known as the Baltic States.

  • Leaders in Russia became concerned that NATO had reached its borders.

  • And after NATO made plans to add Georgia and Ukraine, it decided to act.

  • Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, then Ukraine in 2014,

  • preventing either country from joining NATO.

  • But those invasions also had another purpose:

  • You could think about Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a prelude to what could happen,

  • if Russia decided to make a quick fait accompli grab in the Baltics.

  • Russia was building up a massive military presence along its border,

  • and now its willingness to invade its neighbors raised an uncomfortable question:

  • Would the US and its allies actually be willing to go to war

  • to defend one of these small countries?

  • In Asia, China developed a similar strategy.

  • Since the end of the Cold War, China had become the second biggest economy in the world.

  • And it built a military and missile stockpile capable of controlling this whole region.

  • Both Russia and China have developed military strategies

  • that seek to demonstrate to American allies that the United States can't protect them.

  • They've also introduced strategies that advanced their own regional interests,

  • but in ways that wouldn't trigger a US response.

  • Russia began launching cyber attacks all over Europe,

  • and spreading disinformation in support of radical politicians.

  • In the South China Sea, China turned remote reefs into man-made islands

  • with military bases on them.

  • All in an area disputed by many countries.

  • It's also issued huge loans and built infrastructure projects in dozens of countries around the world,

  • giving them not just economic leverage in those places, but political leverage as well.

  • Russia and China leave the United States and its allies scrambling to respond,

  • and without triggering a treaty commitment that might result

  • in their cooperation to defend their mutual interests.

  • All of this is designed to force America's allies to doubt its commitment,

  • and potentially peel off from each other, and the US.

  • But exactly how the US should deal with this was unclear.

  • Then, in 2016, it elected a president who took things in a dramatically new direction.

  • "We've defended other nations' borders.

  • Subsidized the armies of other countries.

  • It's going to be only, America First."

  • President Trump's view was that many international agreements were inherently unfair to the US,

  • and that the US could get a better deal by negotiating relationships with each individual country.

  • So he pulled the US out of several agreements previously made with allies.

  • And he considered withdrawing from alliances unless allies spent more on defense.

  • NATO members must finally contribute their fair share

  • and meet their financial obligations."

  • Trump had a point. In 2016, many allies were still under their spending goals.

  • He demanded that NATO, South Korea and Japan dramatically increase it or face consequences.

  • "South Korea's costing us five billion dollars a year, and they were paying about 500 million,

  • for $5 billion worth of protection. And we have to do better than that."

  • In 2018, he abruptly cancelled military exercises with South Korea.

  • And in 2020, he pulled 12,000 troops out of Germany.

  • All this has caused US allies to further doubt the US's promises.

  • In some cases, it's made them move closer to its adversaries.

  • Even the United States's, closest allies in Asia, like Japan,

  • have increasingly deepened their ties with China.

  • So what we're starting to see is a set of hedging behaviors,

  • in case the United States does not return to the status of a predictable ally.

  • And now, these countries are watching an election that could decide if the US will continue

  • to pull away from its alliances, or come back.

  • Trump's opponent, Joe Biden,

  • was one of the most vocal supporters of the US alliance system as a senator and vice president.

  • "Working cooperatively with other nations, to share our values and goals,

  • doesn't make America suckers. It makes us more secure."

  • And he's running on a platform that would pull America's allies closer.

  • "Who's the first world leader you would reach out to?"

  • “I would call a meeting of NATO leadership,

  • and I would make clear that we're back.”

  • But the limitations of these alliances are also the reason the US is in this situation to begin with.

  • And how exactly to update this decades-old system is a daunting question.

  • What's certain is that Russia and China will keep trying to separate America from its allies.

  • And the next president will have a huge amount of power over what to do about it.

  • He'll have to answer something that every American ally is wondering:

  • Who does the US want to be in the world?

  • Thanks for watching this episode of our 2020 election series.

  • We asked you what you think the candidates should be talking about,

  • and America's role in the world was one of the most common requests.

  • Markus asked that we cover "the new relationships with other countries,

  • both close allies, friends, partners, as well as rivals and

  • historical counterparts.

  • Jonathon asked about the international position of the US and

  • and especially how to restore the US's relationship with allies.

  • And Tim asked, "how will the nominees repair America's relationship with

  • the governments and peoples of key allies like Germany, South Korea, Japan and France?

  • We're still working on more episodes,

  • but we still want to hear what you think the candidates should be speaking about.

  • So please visit us at vox.com/ElectionVideos

  • And finally we'd like to thank our sponsor for these videos, Absolut,

  • who'd like to encourage every American to make their voices heard

  • and prioritize voting this election.

  • So whatever you do, please drink responsibly, and vote responsibly.

The Trump presidency is full of viral photos.

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アメリカが同盟国を失う可能性のある方法|2020年選挙 (How America could lose its allies | 2020 Election)

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    林宜悉 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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