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America has dominated global finance...
...since the end of the second world war...
...when the current system was built
Designed to establish the economic foundations of peace...
...on the bedrock of genuine international cooperation
But the economic disaster caused by the coronavirus pandemic...
...could signal a new chapter in financial history...
...with America's leadership called into question
Covid-19 has shown that America is failing to...
...sort out its own affairs at home, let alone provide global leadership
$484bn for loans, after the first round of funding ran out
Another huge spike in unemployment claims
With a vacuum emerging at the top of the financial order...
...China is vying to compete for greater control
This is not a case of China becoming Wall Street overnight
The crisis has provided China with an opportunity to show...
...what it's capable of doing, which in the long run will tip the balance of power
In global finance, America is king
It controls the world's financial plumbing
And accounts for almost a quarter of the world economy
The dollar makes up most central-bank reserves...
...and is the currency of international trade
80% of global supply chains use dollars...
...which gives America significant power
Whoever controls the flows of money at the end of the day...
...controls a lot of things in the economy...
...and ends up being the puppet master of a lot of...
...things that go on around the world
China hopes to correct this imbalance
There is a growing call from the international community...
...for reforming the global-economic-governance system...
...which is a pressing task for us
It already has the world's second-largest economy
Its banks are enormous
The banking sector has been growing fairly steadily for the past ten years
While in America, bank assets have remained relatively stable
And with European banks' assets falling...
...Chinese banks now have more assets than those in Europe or America
But most of their business is within China
Chinese banks account for only 7% of cross-border lending
So the banks' vast size hasn't translated...
...into influence within the world's financial system...
...yet
Its banks are becoming more active overseas
They are lending to companies, in particular...
...Chinese companies that are globalising
China is also giving its own currency a more prominent role
In commodities markets, it has convinced...
...a few companies to use the currency
Rio Tinto, which is one of the largest iron-ore miners in the world...
...issued its first contracts in yuan last year
The covid-19 pandemic could increase China's financial influence
China is now sharing its experience with the rest of the world...
...and providing much-needed supplies
30 tonnes of equipment to Italy, 500,000 surgical masks to Spain
Following the outbreak in Wuhan...
...China has positioned itself as a global leader...
...containing the outbreak...
...agreeing to deals to suspend repayment some of its loans...
...and charging ahead with vaccine development
The covid crisis, at least so far, has cast a negative shadow...
...on the capacity for leadership of America
It did not try or even show interest in...
...marshalling a global response to this crisis
It's going to disappear one day, it's like a miracle, it will disappear
This could offer an opportunity for China because...
...it's tried to fill the vacuum that America has left in terms of global leadership
China's tough response to the crisis...
...and the growing size and depth of its financial markets...
...have helped convince investors it's a safe bet...
...even as covid sent other markets crashing
While emerging markets saw the value of bonds plummet earlier this year
China's government bonds remained stable...
...which is a good gauge of trust in a country's economy
So, China has the second-biggest bond market in the world
Covid provided the first tests that this bond market could resist a crisis...
...in a way that typically emerging-market bonds don't
It shows investors trust China as an economy...
...that they don't think it's going to collapse overnight
As well as improving its reputation with international investors...
...China hopes to increase its hold over how money moves around the world
America has huge influence over the current system, thanks to SWIFT...
...the world's largest network for transferring money
It's a messaging system that allows financial institutions to communicate
It's meant to be geopolitically neutral
But because a majority of SWIFT transactions are in dollars...
...and these are routed through New York...
...America has used the system to choke its adversaries
Russia feared being excluded after its invasion of Crimea...
...and some Iranian banks were blocked from using the system in 2018...
...to enforce US sanctions
So, SWIFT is based in Belgium
So, it's supposed to be neutral. However, America has a strong influence over it
America can also threaten SWIFT with sanctions...
...if SWIFT does not do what America wants
This is very upsetting for its allies...
...which would rather the system stays neutral...
...and for the benefit of everyone
For now China can't hope to challenge America's dominance of SWIFT
Instead, Chinese companies are targeting...
...a different part of the financial system...
...the way in which consumers spend their money
Most consumer payments rely on American giants Visa and Mastercard
But Chinese tech companies have developed a series of apps...
...that disrupt this system
Rather than using bank accounts or credit cards for transactions...
...consumers load money into “digital wallets”
Consumers can then do almost anything...
...from paying parking fines to making investments or ordering taxis...
...without any of this money flowing through the banks
Creating a parallel financial ecosystem
This is potentially very disruptive to the financial system
It changes the way the money moves around the world
It empowers a new set of companies...
...which are so big that even the Chinese government is scared of them
Last year Chinese customers made mobile payments...
...worth a total of $49trn
And the two main Chinese companies offering this tech...
...Tencent and Ant Financial are enormous, with a billion users each
Covid-19 may increase their reach
People are doing more shopping online...
...trying to stay away from cash, which is seen as a potential contaminant
And this is all to the benefit of electronic-payment firms
Ant Financial and Tencent are already expanding overseas
Ant Financial's app Alipay is accepted in 56 countries and regions
And other digital-wallet firms are buying into their tech
Alipay's QR format has already been adopted by six European mobile wallets
America has reasons to be worried about the Chinese giants
They are getting bigger in the region because they are investing...
...their wallets in South-East Asia and beyond
And in effect it creates a system that is not reliant on...
...American companies, American standards, American norms
But China faces a major obstacle
Much of the world distrusts its intentions
China denying a cover-up
The top Chinese officials kept it quiet
After all, Chinese leaders initially denied and covered up the spread of covid-19
There's always a doubt about what is the ultimate objective...
...that China is pursuing in being so collaborative at the present time
It's not always transparent about the truth...
...and what happens in its own country
In a global financial system, you need transparency
You need to know the facts, what's going on...
...to make sure the system is in good health
As China's financial sphere of influence grows...
...it is unclear whether it will complement America's...
...by creating more competition, or undermine the existing system
In the end, what we could see is...
...the fragmentation of the global financial system in...
...an America-dominated sphere and a China-dominated sphere
These two systems don't have to be mutually exclusive
They could actually collaborate with each other
If they do, great. If they don't, then it will be harder...
...to move money around the world
It will be a costlier, more dangerous financial system
And in the end, most people will lose out
China may not become the dominant force in global finance any time soon
But covid-19 is helping to fast-track its progress
And as the world recovers from the virus...
...and economies begin to open up...
...China will be well placed to make significant gains
Thanks for watching
I'm Matthieu Favas, finance correspondent at The Economist
And if you want to read more about how...
...the covid crisis is going to change the financial system...
...please click the link opposite
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How covid-19 could change the financial world order | The Economist

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鄒利玲 2020 年 7 月 13 日 に公開

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