Name: カーニバル詐欺の科学と勝つ方法 (CARNIVAL SCAM SCIENCE- and how to win)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T11:05:28.000Z
Duration: 11 min 37 s
Description: VoiceTubeの動画で発音を聞きながら英語表現を覚えよう！学べる英語：

It's no secret that carnivals exist to make money

様態の副詞

And to do this most effectively, they do a bunch of little tricks

to make you overestimate your chances of winning

that it's basically a scam. So I spent a couple days coming down

to this carnival and observing and collecting data

on all the games. So I'm now I'm going to tell

you exactly which games are the biggest ripoffs and the scientific reasons why.

I even nancy drewed how much they actually pay

for the prizes you can win. But there is hope…because I'll also

show you some legitimate tricks on how to the most popular

with what happens when you show up to the carnival with your professional baseball playing buddy

Any kind of legitimate investigation needs to start with solid data

as the foundation. So with the promise of unlimited churros,

I had some friends secretly help me collect data on all 24

games at the Carnival for a full day. Not only did we collect

how how many times each game was played but we recorded how many

times people actually won each game and what prize they won.

And so the first observation was that based on our data

this place makes $20k/day just on their carnival

So to help frame the rest of the observations,

let's divide the games into 3 groups. 1st,

Games like these that don't utilize any skills and are basically

rolling a dice. 2nd you've got your Skill based games

Like basketball shot or the milk bottle throw or the basket toss

game where if you bring some kind of skill or strategy to the table

you can increases your chances of winning And the final category are

the games that are pretty much Impossible- These ones are borderline

lots of people attempted and nobody won, and if they did win

once like in the case of the ladder climb it was for a very specific reason,

So let's start by talking about the random chance games. Calculating

your chances of winning chances here is pretty straightforward. You just divide

and you'll get a percentage. So in this case there are about about 1600

That's about 10% chance or 1 in 10 throws

will win. There are a ton of games similar to

this. But catch is they always use balls that are light weight and have a high

coefficient of restitution meaning they bounce really well.

The makes it much less likely the ball will end

To illustrate this point, think how much easier this game would be with

bean bags which are heavier with and don't bounce.

in your throw is magnified, which essentially

randomizes things. If you have no skills these

are the games you want to play. But don't' get too excited

I did some investigative work and uncovered the sources they order

their prizes from and discovered even If you got lucky

on your first throw that would cost you $1.50

for a prize that that cost them 45 cents.

But you usually won't get it on your first try

and treating this as expected value problem it would

(7/30) 5 tries to land in a yellow cup for a small prize which means you pay $7.50

In the case of the big prize by landing in the rare

gold cup it's worse and would take an average of

The number of people we observed winning matched up well with these

statistical predictions.Now let's talk about the

skill based games. One of the most popular

the day we obseved. A standard 3 pointer is

In this case however, the line is 28ft back on a rim

into your muscle memory you will tend to miss short which is

exactly what happened a bunch. The reason they always have all big sloped tarp in front

is so that someone can't stand underneath the rim where they height difference

Here again though even if you go Steph Curry

and sink your first $3 shot, you still lose 2.20 cents

because this ball costs them 80 cents Here is another example of getting

you to overestimate your chances of winning by making subtle changes by slanting the table

which will reduce the horizontal velocity after

the bounce so even if you played this game all through college

your previous experience almost becomes a handicap.

This measure your pitch speed game is borderline fraudulent

as their Radar gun registers about 15mph slow.

I know this because I measured the distance and then     filmed in high speed

and counted the frames and this pitch was much closer to 84 mph.

For the milk bottle game the only catch here is that the bottles are metal

which makes them more stable and harder to knock down than a normal bottle that size.

I've seen some carnivals where they are bottom weighted

which would make them even more stable and thus less likely to tip.

of balance it on your finger to determine where the center of mass is.

They key to this game is hitting them right here