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  • The last time there was a global recession was in the late 2000s.

  • The scale and timing of that Great Recession, as it's now known, varied from country to country.

  • But on a global level, it was the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

  • Now a decade on, some people are worried the next worldwide downturn may be just around the corner.

  • While there is no universally accepted definition of a recession, a technical recession is a

  • decline of Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, for two consecutive quarters.

  • That means the value of all the goods and services

  • produced in a country went down for six months straight.

  • But the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research,

  • which tracks the start and finish of each U.S. recession,

  • says a recession can begin even earlier than that.

  • The bureau measures and collects monthly data for four other areas in addition to GDP:

  • real income, employment, manufacturing and retail.

  • If these economic indicators decline, it's likely GDP will too.

  • Now, a recession is not the same as stagnation, that's simply a period of low or zero growth.

  • Nor is it a depression, which is a more severe decline that lasts several years.

  • Between 1960 and 2007, there were 122 recessions in 21 advanced economies.

  • This may sound like a lot, but those economies were really only in recession for around 10% of the time.

  • Each recession is unique, but they often share several characteristics.

  • Recessions usually last about a year, and a country's GDP typically falls around 2%,

  • although in some severe cases, that decline can hit five percent.

  • Investments, imports and industrial production normally drop, and financial markets frequently face turmoil.

  • All this can have a very negative impact on a country's population.

  • Many people lose their jobs and if they can't afford their mortgages,

  • they lose their homes and house prices drop.

  • They also have less money to spend in shops and restaurants.

  • That means businesses make less money, and many go bankrupt.

  • So is there a way to spot a recession before it hits?

  • Some economists focus on the number of people employed in the manufacturing sector.

  • In the world of manufacturing, orders are often booked months in advance.

  • When a factory or company gets fewer orders, they'll stop hiring new workers

  • and potentially lay off some existing workers too.

  • This is a good sign other parts of the economy will slow as well.

  • Other experts examine the government bond market, to see how willing investors are

  • to lend money to governments over a long period of time.

  • When investors are concerned the economy might be slowing down, they often sell their shares

  • in public companies, and instead loan their money to governments by buying bonds.

  • That's because bonds are usually seen as a less risky investment.

  • So those are the warning signs of a recession.

  • But what actually causes them?

  • A healthy economy has lots of money flowing through it.

  • Company owners are putting money into their business and hiring more people.

  • Consumers are spending money on their products and services.

  • But if businesses and consumers stop spending that money,

  • less money flows through the economy and growth begins to slow.

  • A few factors can block that flow of money.

  • One of those is high interest rates.

  • When rates are high, people get more money for putting their savings in a bank account,

  • but they also end up having to shell out more to get a loan.

  • This can encourage people and businesses to save more and borrow less, causing their spending to fall.

  • Consumer confidence is a way to measure people's psychological approach to money.

  • Economists track this closely.

  • Low levels of consumer confidence means people are worried about the economy,

  • and that can cause them once again to hold on to their money, rather than invest or spend it.

  • A stock market crash for example is one of the most sure-fire ways

  • to shake up consumer confidence across the board.

  • But inflation may be the biggest factor.

  • It causes the prices of goods and services to increase.

  • If your paycheck isn't growing alongside it, that means you'll have to cut back and buy fewer things.

  • When this happens, people and businesses once again tend to reduce spending and save more.

  • And an economic slump that starts in one country can spread beyond its borders,

  • creating a domino effect.

  • Let's explore an example, the 1997 financial crisis in East and Southeast Asia.

  • It began in Thailand when the value of the country's currency, the Thai Baht, collapsed.

  • Investors had lost confidence in the country,

  • and that lack of confidence contaminated the rest of the region.

  • Travelers face strict limits on the amount of currency they can take out of the country.

  • Other Asian currencies like the Malaysian ringgit and Indonesian rupiah began to lose value too.

  • Soon, investors around the world had become reluctant to lend money to any developing country.

  • More recently, the trade war between the U.S. and China has also affected many other parts of the world.

  • These two economic superpowers produce and sell about 40% of all global output,

  • and economists worry the knock-on effects from their continued conflict

  • could create the next major international recession.

  • Take Germany for instance.

  • Its economy is largely built upon exports.

  • It makes money by building machinery and equipment and sending it abroad to other countries like China.

  • But if China anticipates less demand for its products from the U.S. because of the trade war,

  • it's going to order less of that machinery from Germany to make them.

  • Germany is the biggest economy in the Eurozone, which means if it goes into a recession,

  • the rest of Europe will likely suffer too.

  • Some experts say that the financial crisis in 2008 ushered in a new era of deglobalisation.

  • That means nation-states are less focused on international trade,

  • and more focused on their domestic economic agendas.

  • They say all this could lead to more frequent recessions.

  • And because of that, these experts believe we should reconsider

  • what constitutes economic success in developed countries.

  • Total debt burdens will rise.

  • Populations will fall, as will the productivity of our workers.

  • And so it's unrealistic, they say, to think that growth rates

  • can continue to rise in the way they did in the second half of the 20th century.

  • They suggest an alternative approach is to focus on economic satisfaction and contentment,

  • with a number like per capita income growth.

  • This essentially measures how much money the average person makes.

  • While the warning signs are there for another global recession, geopolitical tensions and

  • deglobalization makes it even more difficult to predict the future.

  • But one thing's for sure, we're living in a new age of uncertainty.

The last time there was a global recession was in the late 2000s.

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不況とは何か?| CNBCが解説します (What is a recession? | CNBC Explains)

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    Summer に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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