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  • Hello, I stumbled upon the EU's secret negotiation plan in the form of this slide

  • presented by the chief EU negotiator at the European Council.

  • This slide is amazing and I want to talk to you about it.

  • So, since the Brexit breakup the EU and the UK have been trying unsuccessfully to broker a deal,

  • and this slide makes it painfully clear why that has made such little progress over such a long time.

  • It started with brexit where the UK voted to leave the European Union;

  • now, what that means isn't exactly clear because the EU has a core center

  • but it also has many orbits of relationships.

  • So, the EU and the UK needed to figure out where they were as a couple

  • and the UK has a list of deal-breakers that, at least at time of recording, are non-negotiable-

  • and that's fine! Everyone has relationship deal-breakers. It would be unhealthy not to.

  • Anyway, core no more

  • the EU's next closest relationships are with Norway Iceland and Liechtenstein

  • as part of the European Economic Area.

  • This is a kind of "EU Light"

  • They're part of the unified EU economy with the EU's four freedoms:

  • Free movement of goods, free movement of services, free movement of capital, and free movement of people

  • So, as an Irish citizen, since Ireland is "Core EU",

  • I could go live in a cabin in Norway, even though they're not Core EU

  • because of the free movement of people and vice versa

  • Now for the UK free movement to people is a huge deal

  • Shut it downdeal-breaker

  • This makes an EEA style relationship. Just impossible

  • So the next relationship orbital out is Switzerland who has a unique relationship with the EU

  • She's not EU core,

  • she's also not in the EEA,

  • and she is completely landlocked by EU core members

  • (I mean except for Liechtenstein)

  • So perhaps inevitably despite not being part of the EU in any way

  • she has over a hundred bilateral treaties with the EU

  • integrating their economies

  • which means that Switzerland has given up complete regulatory autonomy on goods and services to facilitate trade

  • This is also a deal breaker.

  • Switzerland's treaties grant freedom of movementdeal-breaker

  • and Switzerland makes significant financial contributions to the EUdeal breaker.

  • These two things are also part of the EEA

  • So while Switzerland isn't an EU member, in fact, she is

  • basically in practice, but also, like the EEA members,

  • lacks representation in the Parliament of EU Core

  • So, Switzerland's relationship with the EU is also not one that the UK wants to emulate

  • this now moves us to the outermost orbitals

  • and we get into the really deep asterisks of European Union foreign relationships

  • This is stuff like the European Eastern Partnership and the deep and comprehensive trade agreements

  • Which sounds like political dirty talk

  • or the European neighbourhood policy.

  • a lot of the aims of these things is to bring neighbours more in line with Europe

  • either with what the EU politely calls "The Promotion of Human Rights" or trade integration

  • but both of these bring up the final deal breakers for the UK

  • taking Ukraine as an example, while not remotely in EU member or even close,

  • she has agreed to let the European Court of Justice have some jurisdictional power in her borders

  • This is required by the EU for Ukrainian participation in Interpol

  • A kind of FBI for the EU that works on cross-border crime. Nonetheless European Court of Justice

  • jurisdiction does mean giving up some sovereignty on some issues

  • and that's a deal breaker or take Turkey who can participate in trade negotiations under the aegis of the EU

  • Presumably to benefit from the trading power a large bloc has but this means Turkey doesn't have complete independence in matters of trade policy

  • Deal-breaker and so now we've passed the outermost orbital. Where a

  • relationship even means anything and so end up in an inevitable no deal with the EU and UK's relationship being just

  • regular countries to each other in the World Trade Organization

  • Membership of which is basically every country on Earth

  • So the progress from EU core out to No

  • Deal is what this slide is showing: why the EU

  • thinks that path is the only path but the UK has been saying very loudly she wants to deal while also saying brexit means brexit

  • She wants independence but also wants a relationship that's deeper and more comprehensive with the EU than just the cold

  • WTO rules, but for the EU it's

  • impossible to see how to satisfy those desires contradictory without triggering the UK safeword

  • Which is probably why this EU negotiation strategy slide wasn't a secret

  • but was published back in December of 2017

  • by the lead negotiator in front of the heads of state because this isn't a secret strategy

  • It's a clear illustration of the mechanistic results of all of the UK's deal-breakers

  • I really do think this is a pretty amazing infographic in terms of clarity for a horrifically

  • complicated topic which is why I just had to make this footnote to share it with you because

  • I could not bear to let it fade away into my notes as just part of the background reading

  • anyway

  • that is why the brexit timeline has been so long with so little happening the UK has mutually

  • exclusive wants as also discussed in the main video in a different area and

  • It's really all down to the UK

  • She could stick with the deal-breakers and go it alone

  • Or she can drop some and settle in an orbital relationship with the EU, but she can't have both I guess

  • We'll see what happens soon

  • maybe

Hello, I stumbled upon the EU's secret negotiation plan in the form of this slide

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EUの「秘密」Brexit交渉が暴露? (The EU's 'SECRET' Brexit Negotiation EXPOSED ?)

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    林宜悉 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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