字幕表 動画を再生する 英語字幕をプリント The streaming video market is about to get crowded. It is a giant arms race. The streaming landscape has been getting more competitive. Linear TV, no offense to what we're doing right here, is in trouble. Netflix, Hulu, Amazon Prime Video and others are about to come head to head with the likes of Disney Plus, Apple TV Plus, HBO Max and CNBC's parent company Comcast NBCUniversal. It's been dubbed the streaming wars. A lot of people are figuring out where they want to position themselves for the future of TV. In 2017, 61 percent of adults 18 to 29 year olds said they primarily watched TV through a streaming service, compared to just 31 percent who watched cable. There's gonna have to be winners and losers here. So who's going to win, what's going to happen to cable, and what will happen when customers have to pay just as much, if not more, for all their streaming services as they would have for cable? Are we headed toward a future where an aggregator will simply bundled together popular streaming services, and will the cost of that be close to the cost that people pay for cable? And the answer to that may very well be yes. Let's start with who's doing what. Disney announced the details of its Disney Plus platform in April of 2019, touting all of its franchises and acquisitions like Marvel, Star Wars, Pixar, National Geographic and 20th Century Fox. Disney has the best chance just because of its very, very popular content and the money and distribution and the Disney name it's put it behind. That's going to cost customers $6.99 a month or $69.99 a year. Most recently, Disney announced it will also be offering a bundle, including Disney Plus, ESPN Plus, an ad-supported Hulu. Disney Plus and the bundle will be launching on November 12th, 2019. We've partnered with the most thoughtful, accomplished, and award winning group of creative visionaries who have ever come together in one place. Apple announced Apple TV Plus at a keynote in March of 2019, which will feature original content from some of the most prominent producers and actors like Oprah Winfrey, Steven Spielberg, Jennifer Aniston and Reese Witherspoon. Apple TV Plus is set to launch in the Fall of 2019, but the price has not been announced. HBO Max is slated to launch its beta in late 2019 and will feature content from a variety of assets owned by its parent company, AT&T and Warner Media. Warner Media hasn't released the pricing for HBO Max, though it's expected to be somewhere around $15 to $18 a month. It will offer all of the programming you already get on HBO, which is probably the most competitive product in terms of quality, plus it's going to offer you all of the programming that lives in the Warner Brothers universe, whether it's Friends or DC Comics, and then you throw in original programming on top of that. Viacom and CBS have held extensive merger talks which would put them in good standing for a streaming service. This service could include the Star Trek movies, programming from Comedy Central and shows that currently stream on CBS All Access, CBS' current streaming service that already boasts 8 million subscribers. CNBC's parent company, NBCUniversal, is taking a more cable-focused approach, which makes sense as NBC is owned by cable provider Comcast. NBCUniversal announced the service would be free to cable customers, and while it hasn't announced a cost for cord cutters, sources say it will probably be $10 or less per month for customers without cable subscriptions. NBCUniversal's product will be ad-supported. So whether you are a cable subscriber and you get the product for free or you are a cord cutter paying $10 a month, that product will have advertisements in it. All of these streaming services have created multiple bidding wars from networks to buy back their content from Netflix. Warner Media will spend $85 million a year for the next five years to stream its popular sitcom Friends. NBCUniversal will shell out $100 million a year for the next five years to take back the rights to stream its own show, The Office. And Disney will be pulling all of its movies from Netflix in 2019 as it rolls out Disney Plus. These companies will also be creating content specifically for their streaming services. Netflix alone spent $12 billion on original programming in 2018 and is expected to spend even more in 2019. Very, very few companies can match that. OK, Apple could. You know much HBO was spending on content? It's about $4 billion a year, like, Netflix is actually dramatically outspending them. Hulu and Amazon invest large sums of money in original programming, too, and CBS has exclusive content for its All Access streaming service that's not available on CBS' TV station, like Star Trek Discovery. You absolutely need to have your own original or at least exclusive content. That's how are you going to drive people to a director consumer product when you offer something that you can't get elsewhere. Netflix has gone from largely reselling other people's content to really heavily investing billions of dollars in original content that can't be taken away from them. So why now? Netflix has been serving streaming content since 2007 and introduced its first original show, House of Cards, in 2013. It was clearly on to something, but most content creators wanted to see if the trend stuck around. The more successful we were at building an on-demand subscriber base with content, the more likely they were gonna be to stop licensing to us, right? It's actually one of the reasons why we started original content in the first place, because we believed this shift would all happen. It's just taken many years longer than we thought. For several years, while Netflix gained in valuation, the party line among traditional media executives was, 'this is a flash in the pan. What we want to do is protect the cable bundle. We don't want to self-imposed the destruction of this. It's our golden goose.' What has happened in the past couple years is an evolution of thinking that the bubble in Netflix is not actually going to burst. In fact, Netflix stock rose over 2000 percent from the beginning of 2013 to early August 2019. Now, with streaming content solidified in the consumer market, content creators and media outlets all want a piece of the pie. The more choice they get, the less they need the traditional cable bundle. And so what we should see is more and more people cutting the cord or cutting traditional cable. Cord cutting, the process of ditching cable has been on the rise. The five biggest cable companies collectively lost 3.2 million pay TV customers in 2018, and the high volume of streaming services could push that number even higher. All of broadcasting is in danger. The only people who are willing to watch commercials are people who can't afford to buy the goods that are being sold. That's an existential, long-term issue. But it's not lights out for cable just yet. There are things that cable offers that streaming services don't. The live news, the live sports, that's not yet included in these streaming services and it has kept the traditional cable bundle alive. It's a jolting experience to have to navigate multiple apps on a TV, and so high level speaking cable is a great value proposition from a product standpoint, bringing it all together. And because the cable providers are also providing the internet access to make the streaming possible, they are at an advantage. So everyone's talk about cord cutting, cord shifting, cable companies, their businesses are just going to cord shift onto a new medium that's that's Internet based. 'So even if we lose you and we only sell you broadband internet, we don't care because we're only breaking even.' Goldman Sachs calls this the point of indifference. Analysts are also speculating how this will affect big players like Netflix, Hulu and Amazon. No one's going to compete with Netflix and grow subscribers. I believe they have won the game. And I think that there's nothing that I can see that's going to dislodge them. There's gonna be a tremendous amount of competition coming in over the next two to three years. I wouldn't want to be in a position of competing against Amazon, Apple, Disney, Comcast, AT&T. Not only could streaming cost as much as cable, but users would also have to navigate a complicated and segmented landscape of products to get to the content that they want. Do people want to sign up for six different streaming services. Everything is going to be behind its own silos. It's just creating a fragmented media world. There might even be the potential of a company to bundle all of these products together under one umbrella product. Everyone's talking about Apple TV Plus. Where I put Apple into this fight is there Apple TV app. Everything can be watched and aggregated through the TV app. So what are the benefits? Well, customers will get to pick and choose what services they want to spend their money on. Don't care about Disney movies? Don't get it service. It's that simple. Consumers will have more and more choice on what they choose to buy. And maybe they buy three streaming services. Maybe they buy five. Maybe they buy one. We'll have to wait and see how this all shakes out. But some casualties will be expected. There are simply too many streaming products that the entire ecosystem won't work with all of them. I think some will see return and some will realize we just put a lot of money into something maybe we shouldn't have.