字幕表 動画を再生する 英語字幕をプリント - Hi, everyone, welcome to the Khan Academy Daily Homeroom, Sal Khan here. Thanks for joining us, we have a pretty exciting show I guess today. For those of you all that this is the first time you're joining, the whole idea is in this time of school closures, we at Khan Academy, we're trying to make sure that you have the resources needed to keep learning, that you know how to use those resources, and, that we have ways to stay connected in times of these closures. And that's why we're doing this webinars and why we're doing these live streams. I do wanna highlight as I always do in the seminar, in these live streams. Khan Academy is a not for profit with a mission of providing a free world class education for anyone anywhere. And we we're running in a little bit of a deficit even before, this whole crisis struck but now we're seeing our traffic is three acts of what it normally is, and so any support is super valuable. I wanna give a special thanks to several corporations that have stepped up in the last few weeks in record time, Bank of America followed by AT&T, google.org, and Novartis. And many of you have also helped donate to help close our gap. And with that, I wanna make sure we have as much time as possible for our guest today, I'll introduce someone who is known for many many things, including one of being one of the longtime supporters of Khan Academy, we have Bill Gates here today. And, I encourage everyone, whether you're watching on YouTube, or Facebook or any other platform, post questions on the message boards, we have team members who will surface questions and I can ask bill those questions over the course of our conversation. So Bill, great to see you, maybe a good place to start is, how is the situation affecting you personally? How's the social distancing? And where are you spending most of your time? - Well, I think everyone's lives are almost completely upended. The normal, things I do, talking about Polio eradication, going into meetings at the foundation, traveling to meet with scientists. That's all gone, when I wake up in the morning and I think was this a nightmare? Are we really in this almost different world? Where Coronavirus is the top priority, we've got to get this thing under control. I'm doing lots of online meetings, I use Microsoft Teams for those things. I don't get to see many people beyond my family in person. So it's a, huge adjustment and yet there's so much to be done, It's like I'm not not busy. - And where are you spending most of your time? Is that around the virus work? - Yes, that's, the our foundation works on infectious diseases, we are the biggest funder of vaccine work, we understand, how to make vaccines in volume, we do the disease modeling. And so, the skills that we have, understanding private sector, being able to work with governments, what regulatory things should be maintained for safety, and which ones, because we've got to move so fast, Should you go around? and talking to leaders, talking to Tony Fauci, About Okay, how do we make sure the public is seeing this in the right way. We explain, why it takes so long for a vaccine, which is such a key thing to.. until we have that, We can open up a bit but we won't go back completely to normal. And so we're orchestrating, all of our partners around, getting the testing right, getting the drugs right, and getting a vaccine which will will bring us to the end of this. - Yeah, now we're gonna talk more about that. And actually, the first question I wanna surface is from Facebook, Abid Sheikh, and I think it's front of mind for a lot of us. He writes Hello, since you predicted about a similar outbreak in the 2015, Ted Talk, how did you react to the news about the Covid 19 pandemic? And that he's referring to a famously for anyone who doesn't know, Bill made a talk in 2015, that essentially was very prescient of the situation we're in now. - Yeah, and I wrote a New England Journal of Medicine article that really went through the specific things, like high speed diagnostics and vaccine platforms that we needed to fund. This is certainly a case where being able to say, I told you so is not at all gratifying, because this is a horrific disaster and in my lifetime, whether it's health or economics or just uncertainty for people, there's nothing like this. And the goal there, was to get governments to step up, so that you could easily make a new RNA vaccine or you'd have, the testing capacity very, very rapidly. I'm sure that because this is so widespread that next time we will have made those investments, but it's unfortunate that, very little got done in our foundation, Wellcome Trust, a few others did fund work along these lines, but not enough. And, you know, so here, here we are. - And give us a sense of where we are right now. And we could talk a little bit about maybe what could or should have happened, but where are we now? What's your analysis, how bad is the situation in the US rest of world, how close are we to peak? How's it's gonna play out over the next few weeks or months? - Yeah so, the concept of exponential growth, is not that intuitive to people, but when you have this human to human transmissible respiratory virus, it creates exponential growth, that is each case leads to, say two or more cases, and so, if we haven't changed our behavior, there's no doubt the majority of people would be infected, and you'd get this huge overload of the medical system, and literally millions of deaths. The reactions, whenever you're gonna stop something that's exponential, the sooner you act, the better because then you can act in a way that you don't overload your hospital systems. And you can treat the cases very, very well. Testing is key to know where's the spread, and to inform people that they need to really isolate themselves, the tests the PCR test can actually see the virus before you're symptomatic, before you would be transmitting to people. And so, if we had had the testing right prioritized, that would help with this, with the social isolation, by the end of the month with any luck, we'll start to see the curve level off. And then another month, the number of cases would come down. And you could get to a point where, because you are targeting the testing and giving quick results, that will do start to open up in a way like China has where kids do go to school, people go back to their jobs, it's not normal that they don't do sports events or big gatherings, that will wait until the vaccine but we'd like, if things go well, and the numbers will drive it. we'd like to see thatability to open up somewhat by ideally early summer. - And as we are all seeing evidence that the social distancing is working that we are on track to peak, in the next few weeks and then, get to maybe a more a better state by the end of, I guess would be by the end of May. - Well, China had in Hebei Province, over 80,000 cases and so that's the model where they intervened in a very dramatic way, they enforced their quarantine very strongly. They did their contact tracing, they used the testing, people would get testing results very quickly, and it was the right people. They are now, able to open up. South Korea had reasonable number of cases, but they did the testing did the tracing, and so now they are in the situation where, they've definitely bent the curve. There are a few countries like Taiwan who did all the right things and never allowed the large numbers to develop. That unfortunately for most countries, we can't go back and change the fact we missed that early opportunity, but they, there are communities where we are starting to see the numbers peak because of that social isolation, so that's the first step is that peak, but you don't open up until they're in absolute, way below, like a factor of five below where they are today. - Wow, and just from us, I don't know from either economic or a scientific point of view, why do we see this disparity in testing, or even the types of tests? In the US right now, even if you're kind of lucky enough to get a test, so to speak, it could still take several days to get a result, while you know, I heard stories in Taiwan three months ago, you get your results before you leave the airport? - Yeah, the very sensitive test is the Polymerase Chain Reaction PCR, where you make the primer specifically for this virus. It's an amazing test and there's a lot of machines out there, in commercial labs, academic centers, public health labs, that we were slow to get them all going, even today, we're not completely taken advantage of that. If you make sure you're testing healthcare workers, you don't let the queue to get very long, you're testing contacts and people who test positive, that really is guiding individual behavior and the abroad behavior. And so that in the US, we actually have more of those machines per capita than South Korea or anyone else. So, it should be possible. There isn't a set of criteria though, that stops somebody who's not symptomatic from say, getting in the queue and testing themselves every day just 'cause they're worried, versus that healthcare worker. And so, we do need to bring a sense of prioritization and not let these queues mean, it's taking too long to get the results back. - Are you hopeful that that's going to change over the next couple of weeks? - Yes, well, there's a lot of discussion about it, the notion of okay, does the federal level really jump into that? Which agency, has the right expertise to be able to do that? And so, that I think is likely to improve in the weeks ahead. - And your prediction of hitting a peak in the country in a few weeks, one question I've been curious about it, places like California I know in Seattle and Washington, we've been in some form of stay at home policy, stay in place policy, lockdown policy for about three weeks now, and the quarantine time is typically two weeks, why aren't we seeing the peak cases sooner, why is it taking so much time? - Well, there's the league of, once you do the shutdown, you need to go, at least maybe two infection periods before you'd really expect to see things going down. Also, we weren't doing enough testing, and so, now we're seeing, a higher percentage of what's actually out there. And, but the actual the numbers for California and Washington are very hopeful, the New York numbers continue to go up. We have cities with explosive growth, like Detroit, New Orleans, but the there are early signs, that our, our changes have made a difference. Our lockdown is not as extreme as what they did in China, but it should be enough in the places where there's strong adherence, to get to that peak. And so I'd say, we'll see in some locals in the next few weeks, we'll see that, but for the country, at best, it would be the end of the month. - And what's your sense of why New York has had such a tough situation? They're in a lockdown situation now, is it just the nature of the density of people or is there something else going on there?