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  • The Arctic might soon

  • become completely ice-free.

  • And when all of the ice is gone,

  • the world won't be the same.

  • But what if I told you there was a way

  • to prevent this from happening?

  • And that we could do it

  • by geoengineering some artificial icebergs?

  • Over the last 30 years,

  • the Arctic has lost almost

  • all of its oldest, thickest ice.

  • Now, 70% of the Arctic

  • is covered with thin seasonal ice caps

  • that shrink in the summer and grow back in the winter.

  • By some estimates, if the Earth

  • continues to grow hotter,

  • the Arctic could lose all its summer ice

  • by the year 2030.

  • And this would affect more

  • than just the Arctic.

  • The Arctic works like a global freezer,

  • keeping the planet cool.

  • Take all of that ice away,

  • and the weather patterns around the globe

  • would change in a very unpredictable way.

  • But it doesn't have to end like this.

  • We could step in

  • and regrow some of the Arctic ice.

  • The answer lies in geoengineering.

  • We could bring the ice back to the Arctic

  • with the help of huge wind-powered pumps.

  • 10 million of them, to be precise.

  • The pumps would spread seawater onto the glaciers,

  • where it would freeze and form a new layer of ice.

  • Over one Arctic winter, the pumps

  • would add another meter (3.2 feet) of thickness to the ice caps.

  • But this would come with a price tag of

  • And even though that's less than 1%

  • of the world's gross domestic product,

  • some governments might consider the price too high.

  • But there are other ways.

  • The polar ice keeps the planet cool

  • by reflecting the Sun's energy back into space

  • rather than absorbing it.

  • This is known as the albedo effect.

  • We could help the young Arctic ice to reflect more sunlight

  • by covering it with small, shiny silica microspheres.

  • These powder-like microbeads aren't toxic,

  • and their chemical and physical properties

  • are similar to sand.

  • It would cost us just $300 million

  • to sprinkle 25,000 square km (45,000 square mi) of the Arctic.

  • But that would only cover less than 1% of all the ice there.

  • And we're talking about dumping

  • millions of tons of silica over the Arctic

  • that would sink to the bottom of the ocean when the ice melted.

  • We don't know yet what ecological impact

  • it might cause over time.

  • Would you want to risk losing the Arctic

  • before performing more tests?

  • I didn't think so.

  • We could leave the ice alone

  • and try cutting off the Sun's rays by using the clouds.

  • But they would have to be very thick

  • to reflect the sunlight efficiently enough.

  • This could be solved by

  • seeding the clouds above the Arctic

  • with droplets of saltwater.

  • All we'd have to do is figure out

  • how to deliver an ultra-fine seawater mist

  • into the lower atmosphere.

  • Or, we could go further

  • and start growing icebergs.

  • First, we'd dip submarines below the surface of the ocean

  • and fill a tank with seawater.

  • An onboard desalination system

  • would remove the salt from the water,

  • and then a giant freezing machine would form icebergs

  • 5 meters (16 feet) thick and 25 meters (82 feet) wide.

  • But despite how cool it sounds,

  • the amount of energy required to power the operation,

  • and the heat it would release,

  • might negate any benefits of restoring the Arctic ice.

  • We could just quietly watch the Arctic

  • lose its ice to climate change,

  • until eventually there wouldn't be any ice left at all.

  • As temperatures rose,

  • the Arctic permafrost would melt

  • and release more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

  • That would increase the global temperatures even further.

  • The weather patterns across the planet

  • would be sent off course,

  • resulting in more floods,

  • more droughts, and more heatwaves.

  • Some scientists even believe that the ice-free Arctic

  • would bring harsher winters to Europe and North America.

  • And who knows what else could happen?

  • Without ice to rest on,

  • polar bears would be forced to swim around

  • instead of conserving their energy

  • during times when food can be hard to find.

  • That would result in their population dropping

  • to less than 10,000 by 2050.

  • It would be fantastic if we could refreeze the Arctic.

  • We should at least try to refreeze a small portion of it.

  • But that would be only a temporary bandage

  • if we continue doing the things that

  • caused the ice to melt in the first place.

  • It really comes down to us making a collective effort

  • to switch to renewable energy sources

  • and energy-efficient appliances,

  • to cut back on the amount of meat we eat,

  • to stop throwing food away,

  • to reduce water waste,

  • and to buy electric, or at least fuel-efficient cars.

  • And if that's not enough,

  • remember that you have a right to demand policies

  • that reflect climate science.

  • Together, we could undo climate change globally

  • before it's too late.

  • And if we don't start acting now,

  • we might have to leave the Earth

  • and search for another planet to call home.

  • But that's a story for another WHAT IF.

The Arctic might soon

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もしも北極を再凍結させることができたら? (What If We Could Refreeze the Arctic?)

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    林宜悉 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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