Andso I'm welcomingDrBaker, obviously, and I'd likehimtostarttellingustostartbytellingusaboutthebookitself, andthenwe'lltalkaboutbroaderissuesandabouttheotherbooks.
He's writtenandnotsortofthing.
Well, thebook's subtitleisTheCaseorReason.
Science, HumanismandProgress.
I'llbeginwiththeprogressbecausethatwastheepiphanythat, morethananythinginspiredthebook I didin a previousbook, TheBetterAngelsofOurNature.
When I wassurprisedtocomeacrossdatasetsshowingthatmanymeasuresofviolence, itdeclined.
Overthecourseofhistory, I wasstunnedtosee a graphthatshowedtheratesofhomicidefromEnglandandotherWesternEuropeancountriesfromthe 13 hundredstothe 20thcenturyshowing a declineofanywherefrom 35 to 50 inthechancesofgettingmurdered.
When I, uh, calledattentiontothisfactin a blockpost, I thengotcorrespondentsfromhistoriansfrominternationalrelations.
Stillanotherthatratesofchildabuseisgoingdown, and I realizedatthetimethatitwasimportantstoryherethatwas, uh, thathadtobetoldthatthesedifferentdeclinesofviolenceoughttobepresentedtotheworldinbetween a singlepairofcoversjustbecauseitdidn't seemtobesomethingof a patternandas a psychologisthadopenedupthechallengeofhowtoexplainit.
Youcouldeasilycomeawaywiththeimpressionthattheworldisgettingworseandworseas a kindofstatisticalillusionoffeeding a cognitivebiasonDDE.
Notrealizeuntilyoulookedatdatasets.
Howmanywaysinwhichlifehas I improved, includingmeasureslikewarandcrime, whichwouldwhenmyguestsaregoinginthewrongdirectionissupposedtobetherightdirectionthatcombinedthat.
Theothermotivationforthebookwas a setofattacksontheapplicationofscience, tothetraditionaldomainsofthehumanities, tohistory, tothearts, tomorality, tolanguage.
Ah, aneffortthat I I thinkisquitesalubrious.
Thefactthatthatscientificinsightsarebeingbroughttobearon, umonhumanaffairsandhowcouldtheynotgiventheartsocietyare, in a sense, productsofourpsychologyproductsofhumannature.
I wroteanessaycalledScienceIsNotYourEnemy, whichwerepublishedTheNewRepublican, whichwentviral.
Thatwastheimmediatekickofffortheproposalthatendedupdedicatedlikenow I wasinvolvedinsomethingof, ah, literaryspatwithwithLeonWieseltierandeditorofTheNewRepublic.
But I quicklyrealizedthattwoguyshavinganargumentisnotenoughtoplumpout a book.
Andso I hadthecenterpieceofthebookJustbethedocumentationof a factthatmostpeopleareunawareoff.
And I attributethatmindsettotheEnlightenment, theideathatwecanuseknowledgetoimprovehumanwellbeingthat I'vemetthatmightsoundalmosttoobanalandthattrytobeworthdefending.
No, I don't thinkitdoes.
Saidso.
I thoughtthatthoseidealsverymuchneeded a defense.
Yeah.
Okay, soyou'releaving a numberofthingstogether.
Sothefirstisyourdiscoverythatifyoulookatthedatathatthingsweregettingbetterat a ratethat's soremarkable, thatisreallynothingshortofmiraculous.
Now, I noticedthesamethingaboutthreeyearsagowhen I wasworkingfor a U.
N.
Paneloneconomicsustainabilitytheory.
Youforthat?
ForthesecretaryGeneral, theoriginalnarrativewasextremelypessimisticdetailhowweweredespoilingtheplanetandhoweverythingwasgettingworksandhowwewereat a teachothersthroats.
And I startedtoreadextremelywidely, and I foundthatonmeasureaftermeasure, withsomenotableexceptions, likeoceanoceanicoverfishing, wehavebeingdoingsostaggeringlymuchbetterinthelast 150 yearsthatyoucan't believeitonalmosteveryonalmosteverymeasureyoucanimagine.
Whichisexactlywhatyourdetail.
Oh, enlightenmentNowandandthenno, that's a secret.
Andthenyoualsoassociateitwith a critiqueoftheoftheEnlightenmentandscientificrationality.
Anditseemstomethatyou'reimplying.
Orperhapsyou'restatingexplicitlythatyou'restatingexplicitlythatthere's a connectionbetweenthepessimismandthelackofknowledge.
BoththisandthecritiqueoftheEnlightenmentandrationality, becausethere's a questionhereifthingsweregettingsomuchbetter.
Andifthenewsisoverwhelmingonthatfront, I mean, someofthethingsyououtlinedareliketheorthatthedeeperdecreasesinstarvation, I supposeofthemostremarkableandtheprovisionofbountifulfoodonlessandlessfar, butwhichisnotsomethingthatpeopleknow.
Allof a sentenceon a Thursdaytogetherwithoutthecognitiveimpedimentstounderstandingthestateoftheworld.
ThefactthatnewsreportsmemorableeventsandweknowfromthestudyofthecognitionofriskandprobabilityfromDanielcomplimentedme, MrSki, thatwetendtoassessprobabilityandrisk I ah, a shortcutcalledtheavailabilityheuristicnamely, theeasieritisto I'vedreadedupanexampleformemory, themorelikelywethinksomethingis.
Sopeoplethinkthattornadoeskill a lotofpeople, buttheydon't realizethatfallingoffladderskillsfarmorepeople.
I justsawsomeonefallsoff a ladder.
Itdoesn't makethenews.
Butwhenthere's a tornado, guys, doyouknowthatsolarpowerkillsmorepeoplethannuclearpowereveryyear?
I didn't didnotknowthat, butitdoesn't surprisemebecausenuclearpowerkills.
Andyouidentify a lotofthatwiththeromantictypeslikeRusso.
Andwhen I wasreading, I wondered, too, theThere's a powerfulMarxistnarrativethat's runitscourseforabout 130 years, tothat's predicatedontheideathatthereis a oppressedclassandanoppressorclass.
That's funny, toooptimistic, butthefactthatitcouldbesetas a a SZ a plausibleaspirationisitselfastonishing.
Well, I knowthe U.
N hadsaid, asoneofitsmillennialcalls, thehavingofabsolutepovertybetween 4015 andthatwasaccomplishedby 2012.
Aheadofschedule, yes, beheadlineeveryMarxismhas.
Ah, a complicatedrelationshiptoprogressbecauseMarxistdoctrineactuallydoeslayout a halfwaytoprogress.
Unfortunately, thatpathwayconsistsofvioletclassconflict I Itisn't theenlightenmentidealofprogressthroughthreeproblemsolvingfromtheprosaicthebeliefthatnaturethrowsproblemsatusandthatifweapplybrainpower, weakengraduallychipawayatyourmantra.
Mentallyofprogressisisquitedifferent.
Andyou'rerightthatthereis a a strongthattheircritiquesofprogressbothfromtheleftandfromtheright.
Butfromfromtheleftthereis a kindofcontemptforinstitutionslikeuhlikemarketslikeliberaldemocracythatdeserve a lotofthecreditfortheprogressthatwe'vemadeinthatMetoLisaintheacademicleft a ahdespisingoftheveryideaofprogress, and I foundthattheonlypoliticalfactionisactuallysympathetictoprogressoflibertarianshavebeen a numberofrationaloptimistsbooksinthelastdecadebypeoplelikeMattRidleyandRonBaileyandJohanNorbergthat, uh, thatdohaveoverlappingadditiontotheonethat I tookonlightbutnownearlydocumentingprogress.
Butbothfromthetheacademicleftandfromthepoliticalright, therehasbeen a, uh, ah, contemptforthenotionofprogressorfortheirdifferentreasonsinacademia.
I guessinpartiswhy I mean, oneofthethingsthatreallystruckmeas I'vegonethroughthismaterialoverthelastyearsisthatthisisreallygoodnews, particularlyitdoesn't reallymatterwithyourontheleftortherightifyou'reontheleft.
I kindofthinksometimesthatit's a hangoverfromtheColdWar.
Youknow, thatwassodeeplypessimisticforsolong.
I itgoesbackbeforetheColdWar.
Certainlyas a psychologicalsyndrome, itgoesbackatleastoftheOldTestamentprophetswhocombined a socialcriticismwithforetelling, ah, apocalypticdisasterthat's letthatsyndrome.
I have a graphshowingthattheamounttheproportionofGDPallocatedtosocialspendingskyrocketedinthe 20thcenturyfromabout 1% toabout 22% ineverydevelopedcountry.
So I thinksocialspendinghasbeenpushedalongbyallthree.
Itwasn't necessaryinSomecountriesprobablyhasreducedtheGinicoefficientinwesternEuropeancountries, whichhave a moreaggressivesystemoftaxationthantheUnitedStatesorCanada.
ButmoreimportantthanJennydistributionisthatit's reducedthenumberofpeoplelivinginpoverty, which I aremorallyrelevant, measuring.
I meanthatthat's a That's a zeroargumentproposition, andthatseemstobehappeningveryrapidly.
Thequestionafterthat, I suppose, istowhatdegreedoestheremainingdegreeofinequalitythat's generatedbyproductivecapitalistsystemsAlsoconstitute a socialthreat?
I don't know, weexceedsomehypotheticaloptimumifitneedstobeconsideredinsocialpolicyandarethereIIsites?
Um, skepticalreanalysesofthedata.
And I thinkthespiritlevelanduh, probablyabsoluteprosperitymattersmorethaninequalityindeterminingsocialhealthinclude, suchashappiness, crime, otherkindsofsocialpathologies, likedrugaddictions.
ButalsoandthisisAh, a pointinthepsychologicalliteraturewasgreat, wasemphasizedbyChristinaStarMonsandOh, Bloom, thatwhatpeoplesometimesthinkofas a sortofaversiontoinequalitytopeoplehavingdifferentamountsisactuallyanaversiontounfairness, righttoinjustice.
Yeah, andpeoplearereallygoodatremembering, cheatingandrecognizingitaswellinstateswhereourneighbor s O s.
Okay, sothereissomethingwecouldtalkaboutfor a minutebecauseyouknow, there's a theispolitical.
Whathecallrumblingsaboutthefactthat I think a lotofthisisgeneratedbytheradicallefttypes, particularlyonthecampus, isthatthesystemisrapedandthenit's anoppressivepatriarchyandthatthereasonthatpeopleareatthetalkisbecausetheyplayedpowergamesandyouknow, it's this.
But I knowtheliteratureontherelationshipbetweenindividualindividualdifferencesandlongtermlifesuccessesintheWestworld, andtheliteratureisactuallyveryclear.
Sointelligenceseemstoaccountforabout 20% ofthevariousinlongtermlifesuccess, andthentradeconscientiousnessaccountsforperhapsanother, maybe 10 to 15%.
Andthenthey'resmallercontributionsoffemotionalstabilityandalsooftradeopenness, whichseemstobe a goodpredictorofentrepreneurialability.
SoitlookslikeintheWestthatyoucanattributeabout 40 to 50% ofthevariousMaybethat's a littlehigh, butit's it's not.
It's not a radicaloverestimatetothesortsofindividualdifferencesthatareassociatedwithproductivity, becauseincreasesin I Q hierarchyyouathigherconscientiousnessdefinitelymakeyoumoreproductive.
Itseemstomethatyoucanusethatasanindexoffthe, umoftheofthegenuinelymeritocraticnatureof a cultureandalsoasanindexofitswillingnesstoengageinfairplaybecauseyou'd expectififyourcultureisaimedatproductivityanditturnsoutthatthosewerethemostofitturnsoutthatthemostproductivepeopleareinfactdifferentialrewarded.
Itseemstometobe a reasonableindexofthesuccessofthissociety.
NowthatDadisstillleaves 50 to 60% ofthevarianceunexplained, andsoyoucan.
Butitdoesseemtometoprovidedmetricsayingthatnotonlyisoursocietycrazilyproductiveandreasonablyandreasonablygoodatdistrictdistributingthespoils, eventhoughthere's stillsomeinequalitybut a fairbitoftheinequalitiesactuallygeneratedas a consequenceofdifferencesingenuineproductivitythatseemreasonabletoyou.
Yeah, itoughttobeyourobviousandbanal, exceptforthefactthatin a lotofintellectuallife, theassumptionisthatthecorrelationbetweenpsychologicaltraitsandsuccesszero.
Because, youknow, ifyougettogetherwith a groupofHarvardprofessors, forexample, it's prettyobviousthattheirinnateintelligenceisoneofthefactorsthatdeterminetheirsuccessandtodenythefactthatheritabledifferencesmade a differencemeansperhapstoactasanavatarof a socialjusticeorientation, butequallytodenytheroleofofthebenefitsofchanceinyourownsuccessandthereforelack a certaindegreeofhumilitythatyoumightotherwiseberequiredtohave.
Soit's notallon, and I'm notclaimingthatyouwereimplyingthisatall.
Butit's notallintheserviceof a highersocialidealsthatpeopledenythethecontributionofofheritablecomponents, forexample, thatbirthlaundry.
Well, it's justitseemsselfservingforpeoplewhoareparticularlybright, forexample, tonotbegratefulforthefactthattheywonthegeneticlotteryinthatinthatthatmatterandinsufficientlyhumble, I donotknowtheroleofthatarbitrarychanceindeterminingtheirsuccess.
I mean, it's notliketheydon't deservetheirsuccessbecauseofthat.
Butclaiming a certaindegreeofbiologicaldeterminismdoesn't necessarilymakeyou a badperson, eventhoughitcouldbereadthatwaybecauseitmakesyouverysensitive, too.
Thefactthatthatsomepeoplewerebornwithgreaterintelligenceandconscientiousnessandopennesstoexperienceanotheristhatthere's ahsecondlotteryinhumandevelopmentthatisnotstrictlygenetic, butitis, in a sense, constitutionalordevelopmental.
Thefactthat I mightconsiderthisoneofthemostprofounddiscoveriesinthehistoryofpsychologythatcorrelationsbetweenidenticaltwinsweretogetheraregenerally, uhontheorderof 0.5.
Whichmeansthatthereis a secondlotterythathastodoeitherwithjustthewayleavethebraincongealsduringdevelopment, whichcan't bespecifieddowntothelastsynapsebythegeneson, perhapsbychance, lifeevents, whichmightleaveunpredictabletracesthatwecan't I documentororsystematicweunderstand.
Likewise, a lotofthere's nodoubtthatwehavefartoomuchspringpowerinvestedinlegalsystemincorporationssuingeachother, patenttrollingonanothernotsoproductiveuses.
Youknowwhatthefunnythingistoknowthatthere's a there's anerotic, ineradicableamountofpathologyin a system?
Insomesense, I meanoneofthethingsthatstruckmequitehard, forexample, isthatifyoulookatthecreativitycurvesacrossthelifespan, theymatchthecriminalitycurvesalmostperfectly.
Andoneofthethingsthatmakemethinkwhat I wasdoingthatresearchwassothat a czyoungmenbecomemoreantisocial.
Well, there I I'm notsosurethey're I doagreewithyou.
Thereis a certainamountofrisktakingoryoungmenonthemakethatmightunderliecriminalityand, uh, productivecreativity.
Butoverthecourseofhistory, I thinkoneoftheaccomplishmentsofcivilizationandindeedof, uh, ofenlightenmentdrivenprogressisthatwehavemanagedtoteachtheheart.
Justtwoexamplesarethefactthattherateofhomicideplungedby a factorabout 35 fromtheMiddleAgestothe 20thcentury.
Theyliterallysavedbillionsoflives, whereasvariousreformersandprofitsandagitatorsareprettywellknown a numberof, uh, certainlypeoplewhoaresaintedbytheRomanCatholicChurchwhohavetoperform a miraclethatmightresolveitresultsinsavingonelifecourse, ifinfact, didnot.
I thinkitwasStalinwhosaidsomethinglike a singledeathis a tragedy, but a 1,000,000 deathsis a statisticandmaybemaybeactuallydidn't sayit, butit z conventionallyattributedtohimsowellandforgoodreason.
I mean, I supposeMaocouldhavesaidit, too, oranyback.
That's right.
I guessmaybethesamethingplaysinreversesay, isthatthesavingof a singlelifehas a narrativepunchandtheincrementalsavingsofAH, 100 millionlives, especiallythroughprevention.
Waswas, well, noticeabout 10 yearsago, and I setitup.
It's a bitof a trickquestionbecause, ofcourse, everyonewouldsayMotherTeresa, evenourfieldindiscussionsofmoralpsychology, whenever a speakerhastoepulloutoftheairanexampleof a particularlymoralperson.
Yeah, I guess, onDhesteppingbackevenfarther, I wouldliketosee a greaterintegrationofthetheinsightsandmindsetofscienceintosocialandculturalaffairs.
A czwetalkedaboutearlierintheconversation.
Thisveryideaisoftenmetwithhorror.
Well, youdon't thinkthehumanitiestypes, I supposeinsomesensearen't veryhappywiththeideathatthey'd havetolearnstatistics, and I can I have a certainamountofsympathyforthatperspective, butwell, thereis, Yes, thereis a, ah, horroroftheexpandingrealmofnumberanddata.
Andahora p foughtthat, uh, ideasabouthumannaturefromfromscience, fromevolutionarypsychology, behavioralgeneticsfromsocialpersonality.
A computerpsychologymightbebroughttobearonourunderstandingofsociety, ofjustice, ofartliteraturefiction.
And I think, well, that's quiteinteresting, becauseitputstheliberallefttypesinthecreativeentrepreneurialdomainbecausethat's characterizedbyhighopenness.
Therightwingersthinkwhilebordersairgoodbecausethatstopscontaminationandcontaminations a realproblemand a definitelyproblemoften, andtheliberalleftytypesthink, no, no, wewantasmuchinformationtoflowispossible, andbothofthoseperspectivesarevalidandneedtobediscussed.
Thentheotherthing I learnedfromtheAmericanempiricaldoubtitwasthatorderliness, whichispartofthepartofconscientiousness, predictsconservatismisassociatedwithdisgust, sensitivityonsothatthatfeedsthatdesiretomaintainborderssothatthere's nocrosscontaminationthat's associatedwithwhat's beingcalledthebehavioralimmunesystem.
Andsothoseareactuallyquiterevolutionaryideas.
Fromtheperspectiveofpoliticaltheory, youknowthatthepoliticalbeliefistemperamentallydeterminedthatthereasonthatthetwotemperamentaltraitsdeterminedpoliticalbeliefisbecauseof a differenceinattitude, fundamentaldifferenceinattitudetowardstheborders, betweenthings, thatyoucouldmake a caseforopenandclosedbordersonevolutionarygroundsandthatthere's a There's anassociationbetweenconservatismanddiscussedwhichJimmyshehadtremendouslight, forexample, onthemotivationsofHitler, whoisanextraordinarilyorderlypersonandwhouseddiscussedorientedlanguage.
And I cansensetheparanoidreactionthatthesecleansmightlistenuponsometraditionalpoliticaltheoristthinkersthatallAreyousayingthattheconservativebeliefsarenothingbutanexpressionofdisgust, sensitivity?
And, ofcourse, itdoesn't likethathe's a fascinatingfindings.
Don't saythattheearnedincometaxcreditis a goodor a badidea.
Yeah, well, nodoubt, because I thinkthetemperamentaldifferencesarelikeaxiomaticvalues, youknow, andthey'regrounded, and I thinkthey'regroundedinthehyperdevelopmentofseparatecircuitry.
Soit's goingtobevery, verymean.
And I alsothinkthat, likeifyou'renext, ifyou'reanintrovert, youwanttolearntobeanextrovert.