I've just chaired a meeting of the government's emergency committee, including ministers from Scotland, Wells on Northern Ireland, and it's clear that to create a virus cove in 19 continues and will continue to spread across the world on our country.

Over the next few months, we've done what can be done to contain this disease on dhe.

This has brought us valuable time, but it's now a global pandemic, and the number of cases will rise sharply.

Indeed, the true number of cases is higher, perhaps much higher than the number of cases we have safe are confirmed with tests.

And I've got to be clear, we were gonna be clear.

This is the worst public health crisis for a generation.

Some people compare it to seasonal flu.

Alas, that is not right.

Owing to the lack of immunity, this diseases more dangerous on dhe, it's going to spread further and I must level with you re level with the British public.

More families are many more families are going to lose loved ones before their time on Dhe, the chief scientific adviser will set out the best information we have on that in a moment.

But as we've said over the last few weeks, we have a clear plan that we're now working through on dhe.

We're now getting on to the next phase in that plan because this is now not just an attempt to contain the disease as far as possible, but to delay its spread on dhe, thereby minimize the suffering.

If we delay the peak even by a few weeks, then our N HS will be in a stronger state.

As the weather improves and fewer people suffer from normal respiratory diseases, more beds are available on.

We'll have more time for medical research.

We can also act to stretch the peak of the disease over a longer period so that our society is better able to cope.

The chief medical officer will set out our lines off defense.

We have to deploy these at the right time to maximize their effect.

The most important task will be to protect our elderly Andi most vulnerable people during the peak weeks when there is the maximum risk of exposure to the disease and when the N hs will be under the most pressure.

So the most dangerous period is not now, but some weeks away, depending on how fast it's breads today.

Therefore, we're moving forward with our plan from tomorrow.

If you have a Corona virus symptoms, however mild either a new continuous cough or a high temperature, then you should stay at home for a least seven days to protect others and help slow the spread of the disease.

We advise all those over 70 with serious medical conditions against going on cruises, and we advise against international school trips.

At some point in the next few weeks, we're likely to go further.

And if someone in our household has those symptoms, we will be asking everyone in that household to stay at home.

We're not introducing this measure yet for reasons Sir Patrick would explain, but I want a signal now that this is coming down the track.

We are considering the question of banning major public events.

Such a sporting fixtures and the scientific advice, as we've said in the last couple of weeks, is that this banning such events will have little effect on the spread.

But there is also the issue of the burden that such events can place on public service is so we're discussing these issues with colleagues and all parts of the United Kingdom on will have more to say shortly about the timing of further action.

In that respect, at all stages, we have been guided by the science on dhe.

We will do the right thing at the right time.

We are not repeat, not closing schools.

Now, the scientific advice is that this could do more harm than good at this time.

But of course, we're keeping this under review and this again may change as the disease spreads.

Schools should only close if they're specifically advised to do so.

That remains our advice.

There is no escaping the reality that these measures will cause severe disruption across our country for many months.

The best scientific advice is that this will help us slow the disease and saved lives.

There will be detailed information available on the N.

H s website on from 111 online, but I wantto stress something that's very important in the wake of what we're saying.

This afternoon, I urged people who think in view of what we're saying about their potential symptoms, that they should stay at home.

I urge them not to call 111 but to use the Internet for information if they can.

I also want at this stage to speak directly to older people because this disease is particularly dangerous for you.

For older people, even though the vast majority of older people will experience a mild to moderate illness, I know that many people will be very worried.

Andi, I think we should all be thinking about our elderly relatives, the more vulnerable members of our family, our neighbors on everything we can do to protect them.

Over the next few months, we're going to need to mobilize millions of people to help on dhe support each other.

And I just want you to know that the government will do all we can to help you on dhe your family during this period.

We're not just going to be, as you saw yesterday supporting the economy.

During this period, we will be providing money on many other forms of support in helping communities to support each other.

And as we've done over the last few weeks, we will continue to provide as soon as we have it as much clear scientific medical information as we can.

So I'd liketo end by repeating the two important messages with which you have become familiar.

80 Still vital.

That's more vital than ever that we remember to wash our hands on Dhe.

Lastly, of course, even if things seem tough now, I just remember that we will get through this.

This country will get through this epidemic justice.

It has got through many tougher experiences before it.

We look out for each other on dhe, commit wholeheartedly to a full national effort on dhe ID.

No, I like to think as fast as I'd like to ask.

Sir Patrick Balance our chief.

I'd like to thank you for everything he's doing, but I'd like to thank Sir Patrick.

Are Sir Patrick Balance, our chief scientific adviser, to set out the latest facts and the state of play?

Assisi's look, this is a new disease, and none of us has immunity to it, as the prime minister has said.

And that is a key part of what we're looking at here it is entering a new phase.

The W H.

O has called this a global pandemic.

Andi, we're entering a delay phase.

It's important to recognize that the contain phase of case identification and isolation has had, in effect, to delay things up until now.

And currently we're on a trajectory that looks a CZ, though it's about four weeks or so behind Italy and other some other countries in Europe, but means that we've now reach the stage when over the epidemic.

I just wanted to show you on on a slide.

It will appear, Oh my God, um, this is the shape of an epidemic.

So you go on the bottom for some time with not very much happening, and that's probably where we are now.

They're currently 590 cases that have been identified in the UK, and there are more than 20 patients on intensive care units.

If you calculate what that really means in terms of the total number, it's much more likely that we've got somewhere between five and 10,000 people infected.

At the moment, we've identified 590.

The same sorts of ratios will be true in other countries, depending on how much testing they've done.

That's still a relatively small number.

We're still on the flat part as these curves starts take off.

As more people get it, they take off quite steeply.

And that's why timing is so important because what you want to do is to protect people during the most infectious period.

I'll explain that in just a minute.

So we're in a period now where we've got some.

But it hasn't yet taken off the actions that we need to take her to try to do two things.

It's to delay.

Hopefully, this will come on.

It is to delay the peak and to push the peak down.

So we're trying to reduce the number of cases any one time.

That's very important for N.

H s in order to make the N.

H.

S able to cope with this.

And it's also important because it pushes it out into summer months, where the N.

H s is less busy, but also where there may be less transmission of iris.

Respiratory infections in general tend to be a bit less common.

So that's one aim is to change the shape of this, and it's important to recognize its not to stop everybody getting it.

You can't do that.

It's not possible to stop everybody getting it and It's also actually not desirable because you want some immunity in the population.

We need to have immunity to protect ourselves from this in the future.

The second big game that we need to look for is how in that we protect the vulnerable and the elderly, who are at most risk off serious illness and dying.

From this in the way this disease looks as though it appears, is that you have five days or so of mild viral illness.

And then a small proportion of people get a second phase where they have some sort of immune response to it, which causes the damage on the elderly and the sick are much more likely to get that.

So during the period of peak transmission, we need to protect them at that phase.

And if you look at the curves, it becomes obvious that if you do that at the moment, you're not protecting anybody, really, because the number of cases are too small.

If you do it at the right time, then you're protecting them over the P, and you're not asking them to be in isolation for too long.

Similarly, with the idea of households going into complete isolation that comes a bit later when you've got some more cases coming up.

At the moment.

If you asked households to completely isolated, one person was ill.

Most people would not have Corona virus.

You may have to do the whole thing all over again.

What happens then is the effect of that Wayne's because people get fed up with doing this and you end up with not being able to do it time and time again.

So the timing is critical, and that's true across all of the interventions we've looked at.

That's why this is a package of things that need to happen at the right time and in the right phrasing in terms, off mass gatherings and schools schools.

It's true that there's some effect in closing schools, but that effect is minimal.

And actually, you'd have to do it for 13 to 16 weeks or longer.

And you don't need to be a very advanced mathematician toe workout that the chances of keeping Children not speaking to each other or playing with each other over 13 to 16 weeks zero and therefore you have to be very careful to make sure you take the right measures that will stop this rather than things which might end up with Children, for example, going to stay with grand parents at a time when they might be most vulnerable.

So the idea is to do things at the right time, not to end up with measures stopping during the peak in exposing more people to illness on, I'll hand over to chief medical officer to explain in more detail the measures that are being proposed.

So I just am amplified just a few of the points that have just been made.

First of all, we're clearly now stopping the contained phase off this operation that we've always said from beginning before stages to this contain, delay, research and mitigate, and they contain finishes.

From today, fantastic work has been done by my colleagues in the N.

H s and in public health across all four nations.

And as a result of that finding, the early cases they were imported, isolating them with the consent of the people involved, which we're very grateful on dhe following the chains of transmission that has helped to slow down the seeding of this forest and has pushed it out in time so the delay has already begun as the result of the work of our colleagues on dhe, the public spiritedness of people who came forward for testing.

But now we move on to the next phase on.

I think that's made very clear by the fact that the World Health Organization yesterday declared this as a global pandemic.

On today.

The four U.

K c Eno's agree that we should you raise the risk to the UK 44 nations too high now in terms of what can people do?

Thio.

Make sure that we have the smallest impact from this epidemic.

That is possible and we need to do this, do the right things at the right time.

And just to add one point to the reasons that Patrick has just given if people go too early, they become very fatigued.

This is going to be a long haul.

It is very important.

We do not start things in advance of need.

There are several things we will need to do in due course, which it is not appropriate to do at this stage.

I'll come on to one of them at the end.

Now the things we can do now.

We cannot emphasize too much the point about washing hands.

That is actually an incredibly powerful public health intervention.

But the new things from today are to ask anybody who has a cough that is continuous on new or a temperature for those who choose to measure their temperature.

37 8 Some people will do it just based on the fact that they have a temperature in terms of feeling.

We wish those people to stay at home for seven days now.

The reason for this.

And I wanted to be clear about this because we are asking people to do something which will interfere with their lives and interfere with their work and their social life in quite a significant way.

So it's important people understand why this is going to help the national effort to combat this verse.

The first thing is that it helps to protect older and more vulnerable people who they might come directly or indirectly into contact with.

The second thing is, as Patrick has pointed out, this helps to reduce the peak of the epidemic so that it is a lower peak, making it easier for the N hs and Health Service's in all four nations to cope as this goes through.

The third thing is that it can lead to increased delay, putting it further into the area where the NSS is under less pressure on dhe, giving us more time.

Thio Get our countermeasures as optimal as possible.

I finally just wanted to make a point about why it's seven days.

The virus seems to have its maximum transmission around the time of the first symptoms and for two or three days afterwards, and then rapidly declines so that by four days the great set out by seven days.