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  • Good morning, Hank, it's Tuesday. I want to talk about Ukraine today, but this

  • is extremely complicated and I just want to apologize in advance for anything that I get

  • wrong / leave out / over-simplify. Okay? Okay!

  • So this is Ukraine, the second largest country in Europe by area. And this is the Crimean

  • Peninsula, which saw much of the fighting in the Crimean War that lasted from 1853 to

  • 1856.

  • It was sort of a 'Catholic versus Orthodox' thing, but the larger cause was Europe fearing

  • that Russia's power would expand as the Ottoman empire declined.

  • So Britain, France, and the kinda-still-a-thing Ottoman Empire teamed up to eventually defeat

  • Russia and five hundred thousand people died, and it was generally pretty awful, and obviously

  • resolved very little since Europe - just sixty years later - would go ahead and have World

  • War I. Then towards the end of World War I, Russia had its famous communist revolution

  • and Ukraine enjoyed a brief period of independence. Although 'enjoyed' may not be quite the right

  • verb. In fact from 1917 to 1921 Ukraine was mired in endless wars among competing factions

  • including Poland and the USSR and Ukrainian Nationalists, even some real live anarchists.

  • It was all very complicated. It was also extremely violent.

  • More than 1.5 million people died. And then finally Ukraine became part of the USSR, and

  • things became more stable for a while, but then... Stalin.

  • As many as 10 million Ukrainians starved to death in 1932 and 1933 thanks to Stalin's

  • agricultural policies, which were not just stupid but also actively evil. I mean, there

  • was widespread starvation in a country that is now the world's third largest exporter

  • of grain. Then following World War II, Stalin forcibly deported the Crimean peninsula's

  • entire indigenous population of ethnic Tatars to central Asia. So if you wanna point to

  • one individual who's responsible for a lot of this, I don't wanna, you know, call anyone

  • out, but STALIN. Stalin also moved many ethnic Russians into Ukraine, especially into the

  • Crimean peninsula in the western part of the country, which is the industrial center. And

  • then Stalin's successor, Khrushchev, decided to transfer the Crimean peninsula from Russia

  • to Ukraine in 1954. Why? Well, Khrushchev had lots of ties to Ukraine, but also the

  • Crimean peninsula is not actually physically attached to Russia.

  • As you can see here, it is physically attached to Ukraine and it gets all of its electricity

  • and water from Ukraine, and it's easier to administer places you are physically connected

  • to. Which is why Alaska should be part of Canada, but that is a different story. Okay,

  • so quick contemporary demographic snapshot: today, about 67% of people living in Ukraine

  • speak Ukrainian as their first language. About 30% speak Russian, although only about 17%

  • of the population identify as ethnically Russian. And as you can see here Russian is mostly

  • spoken in the West (he meant East) and in the Crimean peninsula. Many Tatars have returned

  • to Crimea since the breakup of the Soviet Union, but today they only make up about 12%

  • of the population.

  • Okay, so flash forward to December of 1991 after the Soviet Union has broken up: Ukraine

  • has had a nationwide referendum and 90% of people, including a majority of those living

  • in the Crimean peninsula, voted for independence from Russia. But Ukraine remained much more

  • closely aligned with Russia than many other former Soviet Republics did like, for instance,

  • Estonia, which is now part of the European Union. In 2004 there was an election and there

  • were widespread reports of vote-rigging, but the Russian-friendly Viktor Yanukovych was

  • elected. The opposition leader, Viktor Yushchenko, lead massive street protests in Kiev that

  • came to be known as the Orange Revolution. That opposition leader, Yushchenko, was disfigured

  • and almost died as a result of mysterious poisoning. Side note, but the number of "mysterious

  • poisonings" in Russia and Eastern Europe has absolutely skyrocketed since Putin came to

  • power in Russia, which I'm sure is a coincidence.

  • Anyway, the Orange Revolution protests led to a second election, and the poisoned opposition

  • leader, Yushchenko, won, and yay, everything would be made of puppies and freedom and rainbows

  • and friendliness toward Europe forever, except NO.

  • For one thing, a lot of people in Ukraine, especially in the western part, want to be

  • more closely allied with Russia, and also (despite being an economist) Yushchenko wasn't

  • very good at running the Ukrainian economy. Also, Yushchenko couldn't push through austerity

  • measures needed to deal with Ukraine's rising debt, and his friendliness towards Europe

  • infuriated Russia, which cut off gas supplies briefly (but disastrously) to Ukraine in 2006.

  • So, by 2010, Ukraine was being led by the Europe friendly, and somewhat corrupt, Yulia

  • Tymoshenko and then there were elections. And the presidential election, declared free

  • and fair by international observers, was won by the aforementioned, Russian-friendly, Viktor

  • Yanukovych. In November 2013, Yanukovych announced that Ukraine would abandon an agreement to

  • strengthen ties with the EU and would instead become a closer ally of Russia.

  • And that is when the protests began in Kiev's Independence Square. Those protests grew and

  • grew until February 20th when dozens of protesters were killed by military and police and the

  • next day Yanukovych disappeared from Kiev. The protesters had won. They installed a new

  • temporary government to prepare for new elections... and then the Putin regime marched into the

  • Crimean Peninsula, ostensibly to protect ethnic Russians there and Russian military installations,

  • but this violation of Ukraine's territorial integrity is known in diplomatic circles as,

  • like, "a big 'effing deal."

  • Crimea is already an autonomous province with its own government, so what does it want?

  • Does it want independence? That would be hard, all of their electricity and water has to

  • come through Ukraine. Does it want to be part of Russia again? That would be impossible,

  • without Ukrainian co-operation, which right now seems inconceivable, so that's where we

  • are right now. I mean, unless something has happened in the last 30 minutes. So here's

  • one narrative of these events: an unpopular and ineffective, but democratically elected

  • politician was removed from power by a mob of protesters, and the new, unelected parliament

  • briefly passed a law saying that only Ukrainian can be the official language of the country,

  • even though many people in the country speak Russian. Furthermore, this new government

  • wants to become part of the EU which might bring NATO missiles to Russia's border and

  • that is unacceptable to Russia. I mean, I'm American. We've had some very infective and

  • unpopular leaders, and what we've done is just waited for them not to be president anymore.

  • But here's another narrative: a tyrannical leader who ordered the murder of peaceful

  • protesters was chased from power and replaced by a government that will transition Ukraine

  • toward free and fair elections and Russia responded to that by invading Ukraine.

  • Hank, I'm not trying to make a false equivalence here, but I think it's really important to

  • understand both of these narratives. And I wanted to give a little more historical context

  • than we've been seeing on the news because it helps us to understand that the pull between

  • Western Europe and Russia in Ukraine is not new. I mean, the word "Ukraine" itself means

  • "borderland". It has for centuries functioned as the border between West and East. What

  • Ukraine needs is stability... decades of stability, so it can grow to have its own identity to

  • have relationships with both Europe and Russia without being controlled by either. Right

  • now that dream seems really far away but 60 years ago Japan was in ruins. 25 years ago

  • Germany was divided into two countries. 12 years ago Sierra Leone was mired in a horrific

  • and seemingly endless civil war but today it's the second fastest growing economy in

  • the world. The arc of history is long, Hank, let's hope that it bends towards peace. Hank,

  • I'll see you on Friday.

Good morning, Hank, it's Tuesday. I want to talk about Ukraine today, but this

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ウクライナの理解現在の問題点と歴史的背景 (Understanding Ukraine: The Problems Today and Some Historical Context)

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    VoiceTube に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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