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  • you think that markets can predict the outcome of elections today?

  • We're gonna look at an index that we created that we think sort of shows the industries that might be affected by a potential Bernie Sanders presidency.

  • Now, Bernie Sanders hasn't won the Democratic primary election in the U.

  • S yet, but he is one of the front runners, and he is one of the candidates that could have the biggest impact on businesses.

  • And so we wanted to take a look at what those businesses might be and what their prices are in the markets right now.

  • And if that is reflecting the sentiment about Bernie Sanders.

  • So this is the index.

  • And I do want to caution at first by saying this is more of a thought experiment than it is a truly scientific idea.

  • Um, I will get into in a moment more of a breakdown of the companies that we have put into this index, but you should know that it is market waited.

  • All of the companies are larger than $50 billion we do think that it is sort of indicative of the companies that might be affected.

  • But again, it's this is all hypothetical because in reality you don't know what's gonna happen in the future.

  • That said, let's take a look at what's been happening.

  • So this chart goes back to the beginning of December.

  • I want you to look at the index because the index is inverted.

  • So this is a market cap weighted index, which means that as the line goes down, which it has been decreasing since the beginning of December because the Axis is inverted, that actually means that these companies market caps are increasing, so it's flipped.

  • But the way the reason that we did that is because this is the panic index, right?

  • So as these companies do better, we think maybe sentiment about Bernie Sanders is that he's not doing as well in the in the election.

  • So as things go down, we think less concern about Bernie Sanders.

  • However, when they spike up, that is a potential indication that he might be doing well and that these companies might be concerned and you can see that that happened at the end of January.

  • What's cool about this index is that if you actually go back and look at an average of the polls.

  • Um, it's sort of reflects what's happening.

  • At the end of January, there was a rise in Bernie Sanders.

  • Popularity s so we thought that was, uh, that that might be sort of indicative.

  • And then right here, this point is the night of the Iowa caucus.

  • Now, obviously, things didn't go smoothly during the Iowa caucus as faras data collection.

  • However, there was an immediate impact in that.

  • It looked like Bernie Sanders was gonna have some really stiff competition from people to judge primarily, but also some from some of the other candidates.

  • Potentially, um And so the panic index started to fall.

  • And then, as you will notice as of recently, And if you've been following the U.

  • S.

  • Democratic primary, it begins to take up again just slightly.

  • In the last few days, as again, Bernie Sanders popularity has started to swell.

  • So we're going to keep an eye on this, um, as things move forward throughout the race.

  • But I want to give you a breakdown of what's in here.

  • One of Bernie Sanders.

  • Big policy priorities is universal health care.

  • As such, about 29% of the company's in this index.

  • Our health care companies, the next largest faction of companies in this index our financial companies, because Bernie Sanders talks quite a lot about Wall Street greed and about breaking up the banks in sort of minimizing the influence of Wall Street.

  • The next largest faction is energy companies, particularly energy companies that primarily work in fossil fuel.

  • Because that's another policy priority of Bernie Sanders, which is to shift the US to a more renewable system and pull back some of that fossil fuel dependence.

  • Next, we have large tech companies.

  • And that's because Bernie Sanders talks a lot about breaking up large monopolies, breaking up big tech companies, reinvigorating the FTC, pushing for more anti trust.

  • So that means that some of the mergers that we've seen in recent years in many industries they could be undone.

  • And in particular, they talked quite a bit about tech.

  • Not that there's been a ton of large mergers there, but just said those companies might be too big.

  • They might have too much control over American lives, and so they need to be broken up.

  • I've run out of room, so I'll just tell you that the remainder are Internet and cable, providing companies again big oligopoly there that Bernie Sanders would like to see broken up.

  • And he also talks about providing free broadband Internet and then is, well, a little bit of entertainment just because that's an area that's had a lot of consolidation.

  • And Bernie Sanders has talked a little bit, too, that directly So this is the composition of this index.

  • Um, again, it's totally hypothetical because of all of these policies who even knows if he would pass them?

  • Who even knows who's going to be the Democratic primary candidates?

  • So we're just gonna keep an eye on all this, and it's sort of a fun way to show how markets in politics are connected.

you think that markets can predict the outcome of elections today?


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バーニー・サンダースの「パニック指数」|カウントするチャート (The Bernie Sanders 'panic index' | Charts that Count)

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    林宜悉 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日