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  • Britain's House of Commons is coming back next week

  • after its long summer recess.

  • But already there's feverish talk

  • at Westminster about what is going to happen if the UK has

  • a no-deal Brexit on October 31.

  • Here are the three options that lie ahead.

  • The first possibility is that opposition MPs from Labour,

  • the Scottish Nationalist party, the Liberal Democrats,

  • and some rebel Conservatives come together and pass

  • legislation which mandates Mr Johnson to have an extension

  • of Britain's membership after October the 31st,

  • whether he gets a deal or not.

  • Legislation like that was passed back in April

  • to force Theresa May to extend Britain's membership

  • beyond March 29, and it's perfectly possible

  • that that could happen again.

  • But it's technically difficult. It needs time,

  • and with Brexit no more than 65-70 days away, MPs

  • don't have a lot of time on their hands.

  • The second possibility, if legislation can't be passed,

  • is that MPs decide to bring down the Johnson government.

  • They can pass a motion of no confidence in the Johnson

  • administration if they get 50 per cent

  • plus one MPs on their side.

  • And that would open up a two-week period

  • in which a new caretaker government could be formed

  • to introduce an extension.

  • Now that's what many MPs call the nuclear option,

  • but if it does look like Mr Johnson is taking us out

  • with no-deal in the final days of October,

  • I could well see parliament going down that road.

  • The third possibility, of course,

  • is that Mr Johnson and the EU agree a deal

  • and that it's passed by the House of Commons.

  • Now many people say that is still very unlikely.

  • There's a huge distance between the UK government on the one

  • hand and the European Union on the other

  • over the so-called Irish backstop, which

  • guarantees a frictionless border across the island of Ireland.

  • It's very unclear whether they're

  • going to work out a technical solution which

  • all sides can agree on.

  • If that does happen, however, and if parliament passes it,

  • then the UK would have an orderly Brexit.

  • And although Mr Johnson is talking tough,

  • there is a feeling in the EU that he's being constructive

  • and that he genuinely wants a deal.

  • It's hard to know which of those three outcomes

  • we're going to see over the next few months or, of course,

  • whether at the end of October, we

  • will see the other outcome, which

  • is that Britain really does crash out of the EU

  • without a deal.

  • Boris Johnson is certainly going to try

  • very hard to get a pact with the EU in the next few weeks.

  • It is the outcome he most wants.

  • But whether he can bring that off,

  • I don't think anybody can predict that at this moment.

Britain's House of Commons is coming back next week

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ノーディールのBrexitを阻止する3つの方法|FT (Three ways to stop a no-deal Brexit | FT)

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    林宜悉 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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