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  • MIRANDA GREEN: OK, here we go.

  • We're going to try again.

  • Boris's Brexit Map--

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: Part Two.

  • MIRANDA GREEN: So Robert, two weeks ago we

  • tried to map Boris Johnson's options

  • to get us through the Brexit morass.

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: Model of clarity.

  • MIRANDA GREEN: A model of clarity

  • as our viewers can see here before us.

  • Time's been ticking.

  • It's now only 20 days to the October 31st Brexit deadline,

  • but a lot has actually changed since we last spoke.

  • So should we have another go--

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: We'll do this again.

  • MIRANDA GREEN: --and try to work out what happens next?

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: I don't think there's anything in here that

  • has yet proved to be wrong, but that we

  • have got more information.

  • So let's have another go.

  • MIRANDA GREEN: So let's move on.

  • Let's move on.

  • Let's move on.

  • The things that we definitely do know, the deadline--

  • 31st October.

  • And then before that, the 19th of October.

  • So here we are, 11th, 12th.

  • And then there's the summit on the 16th.

  • The summit.

  • So it looks like here we all are we actually

  • have more of a chance of a deal than no deal,

  • or certainly than last time we spoke.

  • It's cheered up a bit because discussions

  • between the UK and Ireland--

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: It's definitely cheered up

  • this week.

  • It looked really grim for most of the week,

  • and then Boris Johnson and Leo Varadkar met in the Wirral

  • on Thursday.

  • And to a lot of people's surprise, I think,

  • the noise out of it were much more positive.

  • Varadkar said he saw a pathway to a deal, which is obviously

  • not the same as a deal.

  • One analyst I saw raised the chances from 5% to 10%.

  • So we should keep some sense of perspective.

  • But we will know, I think, within the next 24 to 48 hours

  • whether the European Union thinks

  • there is enough movement for it to be worth

  • starting to negotiate.

  • So it's far too early at the moment

  • to say there's going to be a deal,

  • but it looks a little less unlikely than it

  • did earlier this week.

  • But no deal is definitely still alive as a possibility.

  • MIRANDA GREEN: So sticking to the deal for now,

  • there's the question of whether Boris Johnson can strike a deal

  • with the EU that satisfies both the Republic of Ireland

  • and the Northern Ireland Unionists-- the DUP--

  • and his own right wing, and possibly tempt across 20 to 30

  • Labour MPs to support it in the House of Commons.

  • How on earth do you get a deal that satisfies

  • all those groups of people?

  • Because their needs are mutually exclusive.

  • Or do you think just the pressure of getting further

  • along this timeline is making people

  • more likely to compromise?

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: Well, I don't know the odds.

  • Getting a deal that everybody can sign up to

  • is really difficult, especially a deal

  • that the Democratic Unionists and the Republic of Ireland

  • can sign up to.

  • And we know how hard that is, because we watched the Good

  • Friday Agreement, and we know how long it took.

  • And almost by definition, the moment one of those sides

  • is happy, the other one's unhappy.

  • So it is very tricky.

  • We know Boris Johnson talked to Arlene Foster in the DUP

  • before his meeting with Varadkar.

  • So whatever concessions he has put forward,

  • he must at least have talked to the DUP about them

  • and felt able to go a bit further.

  • So we shall see.

  • The numbers remain absolutely horrible and incredibly tight.

  • And I think there are two dynamics here, one of which

  • is that there are all these people just

  • desperate not to leave without a deal,

  • and don't really want an election where no deal could

  • become viable at the end of it.

  • MIRANDA GREEN: Absolutely.

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: And then the others who think,

  • but if we sign up for this deal, it's Brexit, it's happened.

  • And our hopes for a referendum, our hopes of getting

  • this reversed are gone.

  • So the numbers in parliament are horribly tight.

  • The referendum had an interesting point,

  • and I know you think this has got more likely.

  • MIRANDA GREEN: I do.

  • So one thing that we have left off are groups of people he has

  • to satisfy actually-- apart from the EU,

  • which I definitely add--

  • is also the sort of one nation Tories, who

  • are extremely concerned that if we get to a general election

  • where Brexit has not been resolved either

  • through an election referendum or some other means,

  • that the Tory Party manifesto will make it possible

  • for them to claim after the election

  • that they have a mandate for no deal.

  • So one of the things that's happened since we last spoke

  • is that this group has become much more vocal

  • in trying to put pressure on Number 10

  • on the subject of no deal.

  • The other thing that I think is really interesting

  • is that the chances of all of these groups in Parliament

  • who essentially don't agree on what should be in a Brexit deal

  • might be persuaded to sign up to it

  • and at least pass it on condition that it's then

  • put to a referendum.

  • And I think the chances of that have gone up.

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: Before we get to the referendum,

  • can we just stick on this for a minute?

  • Because I think there has been a lot of briefing and counter

  • briefing.

  • This is one of the really important things

  • is the noises of.

  • And [INAUDIBLE] and the one nation Tories, up to 50 of them

  • said they couldn't support a Conservative manifesto

  • in a general election, which essentially the party ran

  • on no deal.

  • And the reason they said that is because if it

  • is a no deal into a general election,

  • the Brexit Party have made lots of noises saying they

  • can't support the Conservatives unless it's no deal,

  • or as they also like to call it, clean Brexit.

  • They have a flair for phraseology.

  • Whether these people really mean it-- thus far,

  • the one nation Tories that have stayed in the party I've

  • been a tower of jelly.

  • So whether they would really go through with it, I don't know.

  • I think they are still desperate to get a deal

  • over the line, almost any deal.

  • Which is why I think the referendum point comes back

  • into play.

  • MIRANDA GREEN: So the one nation Tories

  • are really worried that you'd end up with a Tory Party

  • standing on a platform that even if it wasn't promising no deal,

  • would commit them to it, facilitate it.

  • And would mean that if they won a general election, won

  • a majority or even the largest party again, they could say,

  • we have a mandate to do this.

  • We have a mandate to crash Britain out.

  • I've also spoken to some of the Labour MPs who,

  • although they are sort of softening their red lines as it

  • were, they've started to say, so long as the EU is happy,

  • we're happy.

  • Which is quite interesting in and of itself, I think.

  • But those Labour rebels are also really worried about the idea

  • of having a general election in which it turns into a proxy

  • Brexit referendum where people vote on lots of other issues,

  • and you end up with no deal.

  • Because these Labour rebels, they might be willing

  • to support a deal.

  • They sure as hell are not willing to support a no deal

  • Brexit.

  • So you've got these--

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: Of course, then they're going to lose.

  • MIRANDA GREEN: Well, that's right, exactly.

  • They wouldn't be worried if they thought Jeremy Corbyn was going

  • to sweep the board, clearly.

  • But I think the other intervention this week

  • that's been interesting is Tony Blair,

  • the former Labour prime minister, who's always--

  • he has always, we should say, been

  • campaigning for a second referendum on Brexit.

  • Because he wants to just have remain on the ballot paper

  • and for remain to prevail.

  • But he made a very good point, which is actually

  • a general election where Brexit is just one

  • ingredient in the manifestos.

  • It's a very unclear mandate, and it's not really a just the way

  • to settle the problem.

  • So I think the voices that are saying--

  • and saying in Labour circles--

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: Let's put this here.

  • Sorry to interrupt.

  • Let's put this here.

  • He's come back from Brussels with some kind

  • of deal, which he's putting to the House of Commons.

  • He's got to get it voted through--

  • approved-- otherwise we're back into no deal territory.

  • So he's put his great deal to the Commons.

  • Boris's deal.

  • This is why you do all the writing,

  • because even I can't read my own handwriting.

  • MIRANDA GREEN: Can we just let me write vote here?

  • Vote.

  • Vote in House of Commons.

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: So how does this happen?

  • He comes back.

  • He's got Ireland squared, he thinks

  • he's got the DUP on board, he thinks he's got a chance.

  • We can discuss that.

  • He thinks he's got a chance.

  • So what's your premise about how it goes through from here?

  • MIRANDA GREEN: From a vote where he manages to get it through--

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: No, he's brought it to the House.

  • We haven't had the vote yet.

  • MIRANDA GREEN: There'll be all of these calculations, as we've

  • said, as to the advisability of voting for a deal

  • that you might not be 100% happy with.

  • Clearly groups like the SNP and the Lib Dems

  • will always vote against anyway.

  • But the rest of these groups will

  • be sort of minded to give it support

  • if they think that the next stage is possibly

  • a second referendum.

  • If a condition of passing it is then put to the people.

  • Clearly the Labour leadership and most of the Conservative

  • Party have always been dead set against another referendum.

  • So the dynamic would have to change quite significantly.

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: But it is now Labour policy.

  • MIRANDA GREEN: Well, what's Labour policy and what

  • the Labour leadership want are not necessarily one

  • and the same thing, because they've been backed

  • into a corner.

  • But yes, you're right.

  • And a lot of the Labour MPs would be happy with that.

  • Of course, it might still go down.

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: Last time the referendum

  • was voted on in the Commons, it lost by 12 votes.

  • and with 60 odd people abstaining.

  • So that means theoretically the numbers are there.

  • We know that the SNP want a referendum,

  • we know the Liberal Democrats want a referendum, the Welsh

  • Nationalists, the Greens, a spattering of Conservatives--

  • we don't know how many.

  • MIRANDA GREEN: But them shifting.

  • Some of them are shifting.

  • Even Ken Clarke-- such a significant touchstone

  • figure in this, that he's even been mooted

  • as a caretaker prime minister-- he has started to say,

  • we might have to have a second referendum.

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: But I think it's probably

  • fair to say that there's nobody still in the Conservative Party

  • voting for a referendum.

  • So it's only that group of 21 that are possible--

  • it's 20 now--

  • who are possible referendum voters

  • from the Conservative side.

  • And not all of them--

  • MIRANDA GREEN: But doesn't that depend--

  • doesn't that depend if it becomes an official gambit

  • of the governments?

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: To attach the referendum to the deal?

  • But that's not going to happen, is it?

  • MIRANDA GREEN: If it's the only way to [INAUDIBLE]..

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: I don't think Boris Johnson could attach

  • a referendum to the deal.

  • You don't know, but if he thinks he's got the votes,

  • then he's got the DUP.

  • If he has the DUP, he has reduced the hardline Brexit ERG

  • rebels to a sliver.

  • So let's say they're under 10.

  • We said there's eight of them.

  • MIRANDA GREEN: These work in concert, these two.

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: So let's say there's eight of them.

  • He's got them.

  • That means he needs about 10 or a dozen Labour rebels to get it

  • over the line, probably.

  • And he's also pulled back most of his rebellious Tories.

  • That to me is the key question, because a large chunk

  • of the rebellious Tories will come back

  • into the fold to vote for a deal,

  • because they were only against no deal.

  • But some of them won't.

  • MIRANDA GREEN: Quite a lot of them voted for the May deal

  • as well.

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: That's right.

  • Absolutely.

  • All of them, I think, actually.

  • Maybe [INAUDIBLE]

  • So of course, some of those Labour rebels don't like

  • a referendum.

  • They don't want to back a referendum.

  • But they also don't like the deal

  • that Boris might bring back because it's

  • got fewer protections for workers' rights,

  • environmental regulation, and so on.

  • But you think that an amendment would be attached to this vote,

  • and they could actually make it contingent on a referendum?

  • MIRANDA GREEN: I think it's possible,

  • because if you look back at all those awful evenings

  • where we had to sit through the indicative votes earlier

  • in the year, these compromises, they all went down--

  • as the hard Brexiters keep liking to remind us--

  • that Parliament failed to agree on an alternative path forward.

  • But they didn't go down by very much.

  • And I think the dynamics could shift quite significantly.

  • Also, I think, as I've said, it's significant that

  • the Labour rebels keep saying now if it satisfies the EU,

  • it satisfies us.

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: Yeah.

  • So it's possible.

  • MIRANDA GREEN: I think it is possible.

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: But it's also possible he could just

  • get it through.

  • MIRANDA GREEN: Yes, it is possible he could just

  • get it through.

  • In which case that would then be off.

  • And we'd be probably going to a general election,

  • on the basis of which Boris can say--

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: He's in quite a strong position

  • then, isn't he?

  • MIRANDA GREEN: I've cut through the Gordian knot of Brexit.

  • I can now unify the country.

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: In that outcome,

  • he's in quite a good place.

  • Yes, I think that's right.

  • So if he comes back with--

  • if the deal doesn't happen then, then we're here.

  • He's failed to get a deal.

  • We've hit the deadline for the Benn Act, which

  • means he is required to seek an extension,

  • if the Europe Union hasn't really just unilaterally

  • offered it earlier.

  • But he's required to seek an extension, which

  • he doesn't want to do.

  • That's where we get into some very, very

  • interesting territory.

  • There's been some fantastic briefings

  • out of what we have to call a Downing Street aide--

  • Cummings-- and who [INAUDIBLE] all kinds of things such as he

  • could refuse to leave office, he could challenge the queen

  • to sack him.

  • Some really extraordinary stuff.

  • MIRANDA GREEN: Yes, it's quite fun.

  • I think it's fun enough that we should put in a little crown.

  • Boris--

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: King Boris

  • MIRANDA GREEN: --versus the queen.

  • That's supposed to b the queen there, the crown.

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: We don't believe this, do we?

  • Don't believe that he's going to defy the queen to sack him,

  • or defy the Benn Act.

  • MIRANDA GREEN: These are very, very extreme proposals

  • that going to cling on in Downing Street,

  • even if the Constitution says they should be out.

  • I'm no constitutional lawyer, but it

  • seems like a threat rather than a promise,

  • as my grandma used to say.

  • And I think it's sabre rattling essentially.

  • But I think the reason they feel confident in upping

  • the ante in that way is that they think they're

  • on very strong territory anyway if the vote goes down

  • and they fail, because they can then

  • go to their precious general election at that point on what

  • they think is this extremely powerful platform of,

  • we tried, we failed.

  • All of these remainers, the courts, the MPs,

  • the opposition parties trying to gang up on us.

  • They've tried to frustrate your Brexit.

  • We're the only people you can trust.

  • And then when then it gets very worrying for all

  • these other groups, including the one nation Tories.

  • Because it would be a mandate for no deal.

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: So I want to put another idea to you.

  • I do think that the stuff about, we're going to defy the queen,

  • it reminded me of that character in Just William who said,

  • if she'd hold her breath until she passed out.

  • That's what it's reminding me of,

  • these absurd, empty threats.

  • But I think that's another thing.

  • One of the things Boris Johnson said,

  • there's going to be a special sitting

  • of the House of Commons on a Saturday

  • to thrash everything out.

  • I think if he comes back with no deal,

  • that special sitting could see a separate motion

  • for a referendum not attached to any specific proposal.

  • But rather like the one that they

  • voted on in April which simply says,

  • whatever position we end up with in Brexit,

  • needs to be confirmed by a second vote.

  • I think that could be passed in the Commons

  • at that point, which is why I think your instincts about why

  • the referendum is more likely.

  • I agree with them.

  • I think that's the moment at which all these people--

  • the one nation Tories, the Labour Party,

  • all the other parties--

  • suddenly say, look, we're screaming towards the rocks

  • here.

  • We could be going to an election.

  • And what if Boris wins and then no deal is really back

  • on the cards?

  • Although if he were to win, it also raises the possibility

  • that then with the no deal mandate

  • he goes back and is able to get a better deal.

  • But who knows?

  • I think at that moment, that's when

  • they try to push the referendum legislation.

  • Of course, any legislation can be

  • overturned by a new government.

  • But it might be tricky.

  • It would also suit the Labour Party,

  • because it gets Brexit off of the electoral map when

  • the election gets held.

  • And it makes Boris Johnson look much weaker.

  • MIRANDA GREEN: So the thing we haven't discussed

  • though is that if he is forced to ask

  • for an extension from the EU, that

  • could be quite a long extension.

  • There have been some rumours that the EU might be minded

  • to say, well, what's the point of giving the UK another few

  • weeks?

  • They're really in such a mess.

  • We need to give them a decent chunk of time.

  • And that potentially would be enough time

  • to hold a referendum.

  • Although you'd have to speed up the whole process.

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: I think this is difficult,

  • because the point is a very, very short extension is just

  • enough time for a general election in effect.

  • If you give a--

  • and we're talking about the end of January, [INAUDIBLE]----

  • if they're talking about the end of June,

  • which has been mooted--

  • MIRANDA GREEN: Or the spring.

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: OK, or spring.

  • The problem is this--

  • I think you still have to have the election rather

  • in the referendum, because the country's still

  • run by Boris Johnson, and he doesn't want a referendum.

  • MIRANDA GREEN: And he has no majority.

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: And he has no majority, no queen's speech,

  • no budget.

  • It's a completely preposterous thing.

  • And he, at the same time, is not interested in negotiating

  • the kind of deal that these people want.

  • So even the June extension I don't think--

  • I think it makes it even harder for the Labour Party to fight

  • an election--

  • to resist an election.

  • And so I still see it that whatever kind of extension

  • you get, I don't know how you can avoid this for that

  • much longer.

  • Unless, to go back to our original drawing

  • of the other week, unless you can

  • find the numbers to put a different government in place

  • in the House of Commons.

  • I don't see how you avoid that, even

  • if you manage to put that through the house

  • before you get there.

  • MIRANDA GREEN: Well also, even if on the off chance

  • you could put together this caretaker government, that's

  • not a sustainable government.

  • And in fact, it's been explicitly said

  • that it would only be for a short period of time

  • to call a referendum or an election.

  • So you couldn't limp on till next summer with a caretaker

  • government.

  • That would be absolutely impossible.

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: I can't see it either.

  • But it does require the Labour Party to follow through

  • and say, we would have an election straight after

  • we've got the delay.

  • And there are increasingly loud and important voices

  • in the Labour Party telling Jeremy Corbyn it's not just

  • backbenchers.

  • We know that members the shadow cabinet--

  • John McDonnell, Emily Thornberry--

  • are voicing concerns about this.

  • So they're in a bit of a bind too.

  • The one thing that is really hard to say,

  • really hard to call, is if any of this column comes right--

  • whether it's his deal, or a referendum vote--

  • what impact that then has on a general election.

  • Because lots of parties have built their strategy

  • around Brexit being a fundamental part,

  • and this happening before Brexit.

  • Not least the Liberal Democrats, of course.

  • And if it happens after, that's a whole new ball game.

  • MIRANDA GREEN: So it if it was me designing the way out,

  • I'd say, why not have a general election and a referendum

  • on the same day?

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: Interesting.

  • MIRANDA GREEN: And then you separate--

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: But what's the referendum on?

  • MIRANDA GREEN: Well, the referendum

  • is one of these compromises where everybody with regret

  • passes the deal on the condition that it's

  • put back to the people.

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: But do you think if--

  • the one problem with the referendum--

  • MIRANDA GREEN: Because that forces--

  • the reason why, as a voter, I would like that to happen

  • is then you get to make up your mind

  • based on the other issues of, do you want to be in power,

  • and how you feel on Brexit.

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: Yeah.

  • So if you're a Labour Brexiter or a Conservative remainer,

  • you can have the best of both worlds.

  • But if that referendum terms are decided before election--

  • and we know it's not a quick thing to get a referendum up

  • and running--

  • then a lot of Conservatives will insist on no deal being

  • in that referendum set of choices.

  • So that makes it more complicated.

  • They will probably try to resist votes for 16-year-olds,

  • although I guess if you've got the majority

  • to force a referendum into the equation,

  • you've probably got the majority to force the terms of it.

  • MIRANDA GREEN: There we go.

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: OK, I'm literally now more confused

  • than I was when we started.

  • MIRANDA GREEN: I'm not.

  • I think I've just solved the Brexit conundrum.

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: You solved it.

  • So it's a referendum on the same day as a general election.

  • MIRANDA GREEN: And an election on the same day

  • having passed a compromise deal.

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: What would happen if the general election

  • returned Boris Johnson and no deal a manifesto

  • without having voted to stay in?

  • MIRANDA GREEN: No, because you take

  • Brexit out of the manifestos by decree of me.

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: Oh, there's still the government to review.

  • OK, I think it's Queen Miranda, then.

  • MIRANDA GREEN: Excellent.

  • ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: I'd vote for that.

  • MIRANDA GREEN: If called upon to serve.

MIRANDA GREEN: OK, here we go.

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ジョンソンのBrexitマップ...再び|Brexitへの道 (s1 ep 2) (Johnson's Brexit mapped...again | The Road to Brexit (s1 ep 2))

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    林宜悉 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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