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Hello and welcome to everyone joining us from around the globe.
Thank you for being part of Day two of our special series.
Ted connects This week we're bringing you interviews from some of the world's greatest minds.
Offer tools for us to navigate through and thrive in these really uncertain times.
I'm Whitney Pennington Rogers, Ted's current affairs curator, and I'll be one of your host for today's event.
Yesterday we kicked off this series with an interview from acclaimed psychologist Susan David, who offered us some tips on how to really be our best cells in these trying times.
And we're gonna switch gears a little bit today from thinking about our own personal mental health to the state of our global public health systems.
Thank you.
Um, I guess we have a pretty exciting guest.
Thio introduce on the other side of the country.
Let's bring in Bill Gates.
Well, they say the the better known people are, the less you have to ensure them.
So it's great to have you here.
How are you doing?
Well, I think this is a unprecedented, really disconcerting time for everyone with things being shut down, not knowing exactly how long it's going to last worrying about the health of all the people we care about.
Um, you know, I'm lucky that I get to connect up with videoconferencing using teams a lot.
So the foundation ists stepping up.
And there's a lot of great people trying to, uh, help with this crisis.
But it's it's scary for everyone.
You basically stuck at home life like many of us watching.
Yeah, almost all my meetings air, uh, using teams.
Now I'm getting used to that.
Uh, you know, I've gone days without seem, seen any work co workers.
Let's start here.
Bill of five years ago, you stood on the ted stage.
Andi, you gave this this chilling warning that the world was in danger at some point off a major pandemic.
People watching that talk now, you know, the hair stands up in the back of their neck.
It is.
It is exactly what we're living through.
What happened?
It Did people listen to that warning at all?
Basically, No, um, you know, I was hopeful that with the, um Zika on Ebola and SARS and murders, they all reminded us that particularly in a world where people move around so much you can get a huge devastation.
And so the talk was to say, Hey, we're not ready for the next pandemic.
But in fact, there's advances in science that if we put resource is against them, we can be ready.
Sadly, very little was done.
There were some things.
The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovation.
Ah, C E p.
I was funded by our foundation Welcome trust in a number of governments, um, to do some of the platform vaccine work, but the in the area of diagnostics, antibodies, antivirals, basically doing the disease games that I talked about, where we'd simulate, uh, what needed to be done.
We hardly did anything.
And and so now here we have a respiratory virus that is sadly fulfilling.
Ah, some of the more negative predictions I made.
I mean, last month you said that this might be the big one.
You wrote that this this could be the sort of once in a century pandemic that people had been fearing.
Is that how you think of it?
Still, Well, it's awful to say this, but we could have a respiratory virus whose case fatality rate was even higher if this was something like smallpox, you know, that kills 30% of people.
So this is horrific.
Uh, but you know, in fact, most people even who get the cova disease are able to survive.
So in that it's quite infectious, way more infectious than MERS or stars were It's not as fatal a CZ.
They were, uh, and yet the disruption were seen in order to knock it down is is really completely unprecedented.
So this is a you know, it's going global.
Uh, that was its respiratory.
That was the great fear.
Um, how many people end up dying?
Hopefully, if we do the right things, it won't be a gigantic number.
So it's, you know, we we should end up not having a 1918 flu situation.
We should be able to do a lot better than that.
And that's that's because of actions that we would take.
I mean, left without the right actions.
The prospects are pretty, pretty deadly.
And if we if we knew what we knew in 1919 thing could take out many tech tens of millions of people around the world because, like you said, is the key thing here.
That It's got this sort of strange combination off being certainly more dangerous than flu not as dangerous as something like Ebola or size, but more interesting, then flew by a factor.
But but but infectious?
Andi, also infectious before symptoms have started is that part of why it's it's been really hard to respond to, right?
So Ebola, you're actually flat on your back before your very infectious So you're not, uh, at church or in a bus or at a store with most respiratory viruses like the flu and co vid.
Uh, at first you only feel a little bit of a fever and a little bit sick.
And so there's the possibility you're going about your normal activities and infecting other people.
And so, you know, human, human transmissible respiratory viruses that in the early stage aren't, um, stopping you from doing things?
That's kind of a worst case.
And that's where you know, I did a flu simulation in the 2015 talk and showed how quickly it spread versus 1918 people move around.
Ah, lot born now then they used to, and so that works against us.
Now the medical system that steps up to pre people is also far, far better.
But it was when was it clear to you that unless we acted this, this could be a really deadly pandemic?
Well, in January, it was discussed that there was human human transmission taking place.
And so, you know, the alarm bells, uh, were ringing, uh, that this fits the very scary pattern that it will be very difficult to contain.
And in in on January 23rd China did their equivalent of the shutdown did it in a fairly extreme form.
The very good news is that they were able to reduce the infection rates dramatically because of those actions.
But it's it's January where everybody should have been unnoticed.
Uh, let's get her out together with testing.
Let's get going on therapeutics and vaccines.
We've got to get organized because we have this novel respiratory virus whose infectiousness and fatality put it in that super scary range.
And so what did happen is that such a mystery to me about the sort of the last month of preparation?
Certainly.
I mean, in many countries and sitting in the US where we are, will you on the phone to people during early February late January early February, saying, You know, guys, you know what's going on?
This is a really big deal.
What are we doing?
What was happening behind the scenes during that period?
Well, you'd like to have government money show up for the key activities.
We put out 100 million.
We created the Therapeutics accelerator.
There's the period between when we realized it was transmitting and now where we should have done more.
I think the most important thing to discuss today is that in the area of testing, we're still not, uh, creating that capacity and applying it to the people most in need.
And so we have health workers who are symptomatic who can't get a test on so they don't know should they go in and not go in.
And yet we have lots of tests being given to.
People are symptomatic, and so they're testing thing to me.
It's got to be organized.
It's got to be prioritized.
That is super, super urgent.
The second thing is the isolation, that various parts just focusing on the US Some parts are doing that in a fairly strong way.
And other parts Not yet.
And you know it's very hard to do.
It's tough on people.
It's disastrous for the economy.
Uh, but the sooner you do it in a in a top way, the sooner you can undo it on and go back to normal.
I said, Well, come to the isolation part in in a minute, but it's just sticking with the testing thing.
I'm just so confused as to why, with more than a month's notice, I mean, there are so many smart epidemiologists in the in the US, for example, you plug numbers about infectiousness and fatality into any simulation, and you see that if you don't do anything, millions of people will die and there's a month.
So what's your explanation for?
What do you think happened here is toe?
Why just know there was almost no test.
A month later, there was no viable test in the U.
S.
Was this just government complexity?
Too many chefs in the kitchen.
What on earth happened here?
Well, we certainly didn't take advantage of the month of February.
The good news is that the actual process the PCR, um, machines, we have a lot of the United States, and so there's models like South Korea who took advantage of February, built up the testing capacity and they were able to contact race and their infections have gone down even without the type of shutdown.
That because we're late, we're having to do one thing that is good news just this week is that people had thought to do this test, that you have to have a nurse or doctor shove a swab way up all the way to the back of your throat, which hurts a lot.
But also, you're gonna cough and potentially spread the disease to that health care workers.
So they have to have protective equipment and change that.
What?
We sent data to the FDA this weekend showing that just a individual by themselves lobbing up to the tip of their nose uh, they're able.
The accuracy of that test is essentially the same as having a health care worker do it.
That helps a lot.
We still have to do other things, But that means that you don't have to change protective equipment.
You just hand the patient.
That's mob.
They do it, put it in the test tube.
And if the capacities right within 24 hours.
You should get that result back.
So how do you see that playing out there?
Are there people going to massively scale?
There's those tests and how well, how ordinary citizens be able to get hold off them it.
Does it still have to be actually prescribed by a doctor at some point?
Or at some point, will you be ableto just order them off Amazon or something?
And, well, pretty ironic today because the government hasn't stepped in to make sure that the testing capacities both increased and it's used for the right cases.
There will be a website, and if the federal government doesn't do it, a lot of local governments will have to do it that you go to you give your situation, including her symptoms.
You're told, you know, based on your work and your symptoms, are you a priority?
If so, you're told where they're kiosks you could go to and you'll do the South swab and just hand it over.
Or eventually we'll send the kits to you at home and then you'll send it back and hear that result.
Maybe six months from now, you'll actually be able to do you have a strip where you perform the test in the home, but for now, they sending it back for the PCR processing.
We can have massive capacity there, and that's how you know the testing is everything, because that's how you know whether you mean to doom or shut down, or you're starting to get to the point where you can relieve it.
Some people are trying to argue now that almost like testing should be dark back because you know the cat is out of the bag.
Testing is bringing people together and risking infection.
You know, forget that.
Let's just focus on treatment and on isolate on isolation strategies you disagree with that testing is still absolutely essential and needs to be swell.
The two go together are testing at very high volume and the isolation piece if you're If you're a medical worker, you want to stay and do your job.
If you're making sure the electricity water food is still available, you want to do your job.
And so testing is what indicates to you.
Do you need to go into isolation and make sure you're not the source of spread And so you know, testing is is the key thing.
Uh, you know, South Korea did that in this massive way that, uh, everybody should learn from.
And so that that is paired with the isolation peace.
Our goal here is to get to the point where a very small percentage of the population is infected.
You know, China on Lee 0.0.1 percent of the population was infected.
If you let it.
If you don't do these things, you're gonna get the majority of people infected.
And that huge overload of the medical system Whitney has some questions from our audience.
Whitney.
Some of the questions that we're seeing are about how our tech giants and leaders can play a role in isolating this and containing this on this virus.
You know, the tech companies are very involved in making sure that some work can go on.
You know, people can stay in touch, you know, they can help with some of the disease modeling.
They can help with the visibility of the numbers.
It's actually very impressive.
You know, You get up there and you can see you know those numbers.
Actually, they're sad numbers, but, uh, everybody's able to monitor this thing back in 1918.
They didn't have this type of visibility on an ability to share best practices.
But for a lot of people, the isolation is the key thing.
I mean, Bill, one of the riddles about this isolation strategy is how long, how long has to last, right?
Like a lot of people are concerned that the price off victory by isolating everyone is that you crashed the economy and that you know what?
We have to be basically at home, not doing regular jobs for 36 months, maybe maybe all year.
So much so that there's now this big debate in the U.
S.
And other countries about this may just be the wrong strategy that we can't crash the economy that badly.
We should only isolate for another couple weeks and then let people back.
And if that means you know, a lot of other people get sick and we eventually build up heard humanity.
That may be the right the right way to go.
What's your thought on this?
What is the theme isolation strategy that eventually leads to us getting back to normal?
Andi, it's very tough to say to people Hey, keep going to restaurants, you know, go buy new houses, ignored that pile of bodies over in the corner.
Just, you know, we want you to keep spending because there's some, uh, maybe a politician who thinks GDP growth.
This is what really counts.
It's very hard to tell people when there's an epidemic spreading that threatens, particularly their parents, are elderly people that they know that they should go about things knowing that their activity is spreading this disease.
I don't know of any rich countries that have chosen to use that approach.
It is true if you did that approach over a period of several years on, not people would be infected.
You'd have what's called herd immunity.
They heard immunities meaningless until you, in fact, over half the population.
And so you can take you'll overload your medical systems.
Here, case fatality rate, instead of being 1% will be like 34%.
And so you know the idea.
It's very irresponsible for somebody to suggest we can have the best of both worlds.
What we need is the extreme Shutdown Thio, so that in 6 to 10 weeks, if things go well, then you can start opening back up says they're just putting the math together.
From what you just said, Bill, to get to herd immunity, you needed more than half the people in the country to basically get the bug.
So in the case of the US, for example, that 150 million people thereabouts you said that there could be the fatality rate in that scenario, you're talking about 4 to 5 million people in that in that potential fatalities.
I mean, it's like like it.
That's just a horrifying scenario that no one should be contemplating even 1% of their population getting sick.
They will treat whoever goes for this, ignore the disease strategy.
They will treat them as a price state.
So no, none of their people go in and none of your people will will go into that.
And so briefly a few countries in Europe that hadn't really looked at this hard considered okay, should be we be the ones who kind of go about business as usual.
It is tempting because if you got there early, South Korea did not have to do the extreme shutdown because they did such a good job on testing and you know, that's why it's testing a name to me, that the government's not allocating the testing to, uh, to where it's needed.
Um, you know, and maybe that will have to happen at the state level, because it's it's not having at the federal level.
But there is.
There is no middle course on this thing.
It is sad that the shutdown will be harder for poor countries than it is for richer countries.
So let's come into that in a minute.
But just the one exception, I've had the case made for his Japan that Japan has not contained it quite in the same way that South Korea did, but has allowed people to work.
It's tried to make extreme measures for protecting the most elderly population, but they tried to sort of.
They tried to find a middle scenario, haven't they?
Well, if you act when you have, you know, hundreds of cases, uh, you may be able to contain it by doing great testing and great contact tracing and restricting foreigners coming in without as much damage to our economy.
The U.
S.
Has passed this opportunity to control without shut down so that the worst case of what was happening in, uh, Wuhan in the beginning or in northern Italy.
Uh, you know, the last few weeks that we avoid that, but we we did not have fast enough to have ah, uh, ability to avoid the shot down.
But then what I don't understand in the case of the US, for example, is that if if even if we're successful in bending the curve and reducing the number of new cases from a period of extreme shut down as it were, no immunity has been built up, let's say that there's still no vaccine.
Surely, when you lift restrictions and people start going back to work, the whole thing just blows up again.
The experience that were seen in China and in South Korea is that there are not.
These people are asymptomatic that are causing lots of infections, and that's a parameter that is.
You build the model you have to put in if there's an imperial model that people talk about lot, which shows that reopening is very hard to do.
But it the results of that model are not matching what we see in China, and so very likely there aren't as many of these infecting asymptomatic CE.
And that's why you have to be pragmatic.
There's a lot we don't know.
For example, seasonality may help us in the Northern Hemisphere.
The force of infection will respiratory viruses.
To some degree, they all are are are seasonal.
We don't know how seasonal this one is.
Uh, but you know, there's a reasonable chance that the force of infection will be going down.
And it's your testing that always is telling you.
Oh my gosh, Do I have to shut down Maur?
Are can I start to open up?
So particularly right is you open up that testing and contact tracing is is saying to you and I'm you know, you can say I'm on the more optimistic side that it will be possible to do what China's doing where, uh, you know they are starting to go back to normal, help me understand what happened there because it's it seems kind of miraculous to me cause they this virus was exploding.
Yes, in Wuhan, but But people moved from there to many other parts off China.
How is it possible that that the combination of the shutdown in Wuhan it and measures elsewhere seemed to have got to the point where there are literally no new cases happening.
I mean, to me, that implies that, literally, the virus is not circulating at all between humans in China.
How are you know?
There's a few tourists coming in who they deal with?
But, I mean, how on earth is that?
Is that literally your interpretation of what happened that it's no longer safe?
Take a spreadsheet and take a number like 41 person effects for people and say the cycle, you knows every 10 days go through.
You know, eight of those cycles, Uh, and you're getting a big number.
You know, start with 10,000.
Uh, and then you know that increase.
If you take the number 0.4 instead, that is the average case infects point for people, which, uh, then look at what happens to that number is you go out, it drops to zero.
And so dings of their exponential are very, very dramatic.
When they're above one, they are growing rapidly.
When they're blow one, they're shrinking rapidly.
And so the isolation in China drove that reproductive number tow well below zero, and the local one.
Ah, Bull one.
Sorry.
Uh, and it's a you know, that's that quarantine.
That's, you know, quarantine comes from 40 days, which is what they thought would help for black black plague.
Uh, that is our primary technique.
Thank God we have test in a plea.
Use it properly.
We are, you know, doing therapeutics, which will help with the death rate.
But in terms of the keeping infections, the 1% of the population it's it's really all depends just on the two things isolation and testing.
So to quote a question from my Twitter feed this morning for you, Bill, like if you were president for a month in the US, what would be the top two or three things you would do?
Well, the clear message that we have no choice to maintain this isolation, and that's going to keep going for a period of time.
You know, probably in the Chinese case, it was like six weeks.
So we have to prepare ourselves for that and do it very well and then use the testing and every week talk about what's going on with that.
If you're doing isolation well within about 20 days, you'll see those numbers really change.
You know, instead of this, you'll see this, and that is a sign that you're on your way.
Now you have to stay to get those more generations that are, you know, point for infections per previous infection.
You have to maintain it for a number of weeks there.
And you know, so this is not gonna be easy.
We need a clear message about that.
It is really tragic that the economic effects of this are very dramatic.
I mean, nothing like this has ever happened to the economy in our our lifetimes.
But money, you know, bringing the economy back and doing money.
That's more of a reversible thing than bringing people back to life.
Uh, and so we're going to take the pain in the economic dimension, huge pain in order to minimize the pain in the disease and death dimension.
Whitney, we have a lot of other questions coming in.
One of the ones that we've been seeing is this a question about what tools are available for countries that maybe I don't have the luxury of being able to social distance don't have great health systems in place.
How should they be handling this virus?
Yeah, I would say that.
Um if the rich countries really do their job well, by the summer, uh, they'll be like China is are some of the other countries that responded early, But in the developing countries, particularly in the southern Hemisphere, the seasonality is is large is you say, the ability to isolate.
You know, when you go out to get your food every day, uh, you have to earn your wage.
When you live in a Islam where you're very nearby each other, it's very hard to do a CZ.
You move down the income ladder.
Uh, then it is for a country like like the United States.
And so we should all, you know, accelerate the vaccine, which eventually will come.
And, you know, people are being responsible to say that, you know, that's gonna take 18 months.
Uh uh, and there's a lot of those being pursued.
Um, you know, I'm I'm talking a lot with Seth Berkley, who you're gonna have later this week who come talk a lot about the vaccine front.
Uh, because he's definitely at the center of that at being the head of of Gabi we do need to get really cheap testing out to these countries.
Uh, and we need to get therapeutic so you don't need to put 5% of people on respirators because even if they have the equipment, they don't have the personnel.
They just don't have the beds that capacity.
Uh, and so the only good news is that the rich countries have this, and so they will be learning about testing therapeutics on funding the vaccines for the entire world to try and minimize the damage in developing countries.
Great.
I'll be back later with more questions.
Bill, you mentioned Therapeutics there.
What is looking, promising as anything looking promising.
Yeah, so there's quite a range of things going on.
There's a few that get mentioned lot.
Room seven Dear hydrochloric gonna sit through myson, and the date is still a bit confusing, but there's some positive date on those room seven.
Here is a five day ivy infusion and actually kind of hard to manufacturer, so people are looking at how that could be improved.
Uh, the hydrochloric in looks like it works somewhat If you get in early.
They're huge list of compounds, including Anna bodies antiviral drugs.
And so the Gates Foundation and welcome trust with support from MasterCard.
Now, others created this therapeutic accelerator to really triage out.
You have hundreds of people showing up saying, trying this, try that.
So we look att, lab assays, animal models.
And so we understand which things should be prioritized for these very quick human trials that need to be done all over the world.
And so the coordination on that is very complex globally.
But I think, you know, out of the top 20 or so candidates, probably three or four of them will work out, you know, different stages of the disease to reduce the respiratory distress.
I heard you mention that one possibility might be treatments from the serum, the blood serum off people who had had the disease and recovered s Oh, I guess that carrying antibodies talk talk a bit about that, about how that would work and what it would take to accelerate that.
Yeah, this has always been discussed is how could you pull that off?
So people who are recovered, uh, it appears I have really effective antibodies in their blood, so you could go transfused them, and on Lee, take out the white cells, the immune cells and then the question is okay, How many patients worth of material could you get?
If you have that recovered person come in, say, once a week, do you get enough for two people or five people, then logistical.
You have to take that and get it to where that need is.
And so it's.
It's fairly complicated it compared to a drug that we could make a high volume, you know, the cost of taking it out and putting it back in.
Probably a dozen scale as well.
But there's what there is work being done on this.
Uh, you know, we actually started with the bullet.
Unfortunately, it got done before it was needed S O that is being pursued, and it'll work to some degree, but it'll be hard toe scale, the numbers.
So it's almost like when you, when you talk about the need to accelerate testing, the immediate need is for testing for the virus.
But is it possible that in a few months time that there's good meat that's growingly to test for these antibodies and people?
Are you to see if someone had the disease and recover.
Maybe they didn't know they had it because you could picture this growing worldwide force of heroes.
Let's call them heroes who have been through this experience and have a lot to offer the world.
Maybe maybe they can offer, you know, like blood, blood donation, serum donation, but also other tasks, like if you've got overwhelmed healthcare systems.
Presumably there are kind of community health worker type task that people could be trained to do to relieve the pressure that if we knew that they were effectively immune.
Yes, until we came up with the, uh, South Swab and showed FDA that that's equivalent were thinking that people who might be able to manage those kiosks would be the recovered patients.
Now, we don't want to have a lot of recovered people, you know, to be clear, we're trying through the shutdown, uh, in the United States to not get tau.
1% of the population infected were well below that today, but with expense.
She a shin, you know, you could get past that three million.
I believe we will be able to avoid that with the having this economic pain eventually, what we'll have to have the certificates of Who's a recovered person who's a vaccinated person because you don't want people moving around the world where you'll have some countries that won't have it under control.
Sadly, you don't want to completely block off the ability for those people to go there and come back and move around.
Bill is your foundation helping to accelerate the manufacturer of these self test.
What are the prospects for really seeing scale on some of this testing soon?
Not just a new s, but but but globally.
Yeah, our foundation.
We'd been funding a thing called the flu study to really understand how respiratory viruses spread.
It's amazing how little was understood about how important schools are different age groups, different types of interaction, and that gave us an experience.
In fact, that flu study actually was the first time krone virus was found in the community because the government was still saying you only test people come from China.
But we ran into people who had Corona virus who weren't having been travelers.
So, you know, that was like an early warning sign, even though the regulation said you weren't supposed todo even.
Look at that.
So, um, yeah.
The foundation is working with all the private sector people, the diagnostics people on this testing peace, the Now that we can do the, uh, self swab, those swabs are very easy to manufacture.
The one where you had to jam it into the throat deep terminate that was getting into short supply.
So the swab, you know, should not be limiting.
Neither should the various chemicals that help run the PCR machines.
So we we should be able to get to a South Korea type prioritized testing thing within within a few weeks.
How important is it that the world's nations collaborate right now?
I mean, it's, you know, it seems like, you know, here's this common enemy facing humanity.
It does not know that it just crossed the border.
It does not know what race people are, what religion they are.
It just knows he has a human.
I've got I've got I've got a manufacturing machine here that could make me famous on goes to work.
It's so terrifying to me to see signs of duck of countries trying to blame each other, or you know, that the xenophobia just seems so toxic How do you How What's your take on this bill?
Is there anything?
Do you see signs off cooperation happening?
Or are you also worried about the sort of us versus China kind of thing that seems to be going on a little.
Careful.
Well, I see both.
I see that countries that are recovered can help other countries and that, you know, that's fantastic.
Uh, it by the summer, we've not this thing down then.
Great.
We can help other countries.
There are vaccine projects all over the world.
The nose should be evaluated on a very neutral basis to which one is the best to help humanity and make sure the manufacturing capacity isn't just for rich countries that it scaled up very low cost stuff for the entire world.
And that's the spirit of Gabi is getting vaccines out to every person.
So you see really good in the science side and data share inside you see this great cooperation going on.
Unfortunately, whenever you have disease, this sense of other and foreign and no, stay away from me.
Uh, are you know that sort of pulling inward is reinforced and we have to avoid that you know.
Ironically, we have to isolate physically while in terms of looking at community, Uh, groups that are pooling resource is to help make sure food gets to everyone and help your medical care and that, you know, older people need to be moved out of common facilities.
You help out with that and that, you know, people aren't suffering too much from the psychology of isolation.
So our generosity has to go up towards others at the same time where less actually physically in interacting with other people.
I mean thinking about the situation in many developing countries.
I'm curious how you think of this.
I mean, you mentioned festival that seasonality may help.
I'II high temperatures.
Is it possible that that is so far protecting, to some extent, places like India or sub Saharan Africa and so forth in India's northern Hemisphere?
So southern hemisphere is lots of Africa, South America, Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia.
And it is true.
Either they're not that either.
The force of infection is lower there.
We're just not seeing it with testing.
You know, a few months from now, we'll understand the seasonality question, which would be good news for the Northern hemisphere and somewhat bad news for the Southern Hemisphere.
Not more people live in the Northern Hemisphere including, you know, India, Pakistan, and that would buy us some time.
The time is a big deal because all these tools get so much, uh, better if you had to go in tow second season with.
But yes, sadly, we could see in the next few months is the Southern Hemisphere is moving into its ah fall.
And then winter we could see a big increase their and that is going to be very difficult now.
They don't have as many older people, but they have lots of people who have or HIV positive or how mount nutrition or various lung challenges because of indoor smoke.
And so the wild card is how welcome the developing countries deal with this.
I mean, if you're in a country where you have the majority of your populations making less than two or $3 a day, can you even afford a strategy that looks looks like basically shutting down the economy.
I'm very worried that there will be a massive number of deaths in those poor countries because the health systems just aren't you know the number of respirators, hospitals.
And, of course, when you overload that system, your doubts are not just covert deaths, but the everyone else who's trying to access system that will be somewhat in chaos, including with health workers who are getting sick.
Okay, we're getting near Thio running out of time in this Whitney.
It may be a last question to From Online.
Sure, so we have two from online.
We're seeing thousands of questions around these same lines.
One.
There's lots of people who are really interested to hear about the kind of work that you're doing with your foundation as faras distributing tests but also producing, producing safety gear masks and that sort of thing to help with this effort for health workers.
Yeah, so the Gates Foundation, we very lean on gay about 100 million to help out with all the pieces.
The testing, peace, the therapeutics and the vaccines were not experts in making maths in ventilators and gowns on.
And it's great that other people, including some three D printing and open source things that is great.
Our focus, you know, like this self swab thing in, you know, nobody had done that before people thought it would work, we were quite sure it would work.
And so that for the globe is a huge thing.
We worked a lot with both governments and private sector, so in some ways were kind of a bridge.
Uh, and you know.
So we've been talking to the head of the pharmaceutical companies and the testing companies, and specifically with the ones doing vaccines, including some of which are these new type of vaccines are in a vaccines that we've been backing for quite some time, and SEPI has been backing.
And so our expertise are is in those medical tools and really getting the best of the private sector engaged there.
It's been a little slow.
We can write checks, you know, right away.
Where is the government processes?
Even in this situation?
Uh, you know, there's still this notion of bidding and not really knowing who has the unique capabilities of doing things and you know, so an organization that's working on this all the time, lots of new vaccines can step in and be helpful, and it's really amazing when we talk to private sector partners there.
Interest in helping out is has been absolutely fantastic.
Uh, and, you know, So that's where we have a unique role.
And I mean, the other question that we're just seeing a ton of before we wrap up here is is just people are really interested in your insight, bill, on whether you think we're heading in the right direction.
Do you feel like our economy is heading in the right place section?
Vanity is heading in the right place.
Are we in a better position now than you thought we were in five years ago?
Well, the five years ago, I said that the pandemic is this unaddressed very, very scary thing and that, you know, if we did the right things, we could be more prepared.
Science is on our side.
The fact we can, uh, be ready for the next epidemic.
It's very clear how to do that.
Uh, and yes, it will take tens of billions, but not hundreds or trillions of dollars.
It'll be tiny compared to the economic cost.
I remember when I did that presentation 2015.
I put up a You know, a big flu epidemic could cost four trillion.
I thought, Wow, that's a big number.
do I really?
I think it's that big.
And I went and took them because I thought, Yeah, well, that that's big.
This epidemic will cost that much to the economy.
So in the short run, we're going to have more pain and more difficulty, and people are going to have to step up to help each other.
I'm still very much an optimist.
You know, whether it's climate change, countries working together, biology, taking the diseases, malaria, TB, you know, even advances for what are more ritual disease, like cancer, the amount of innovation, the way we can connect up and work together.
Yes, I'm super positive about that.
You know, I love my work because I see progress on all these diseases all the time.
Now we have to, you know, turn and and focus on this.
You know, sadly, it may interrupt in the polio situation.
Might get worse a little bit because of the distraction here.
Uh, you know, we're using a lot of the great capacity that was built up for those polio activities to try and help the developing countries respond to this very well, and that that is appropriate.
But, uh, you know the message for me.
Although it's very sober when we're dealing with this epidemic.
Uh, you know, I'm I'm very positive that this should draw us together.
Uh, we will get out of this, and then we will get ready for the next epidemic.
That's that's exactly what I was gonna ask you, Billy.
Which is how Where's your head, Do you think with that we will get through this?
Will the leaders that matter?
Listen to the scientists, will they?
Will we make it through?
Do you do believe that within a few months time we're gonna be already looking back and saying we dodged a pretty bad one there?
We can't say for sure that even the rich countries will be out of this in 6 to 10 weeks.
I think that's likely.
But as we get the testing data will get more of a sense of that.
People continuously be able to see that.
But you know, the rich countries will get out of this.
The developing countries will bury significant price.
But even they we will get a vaccine and Gabi will get that out to to everyone.
So, you know, 2 to 3 years from Now, this thing, even on a global basis, will essentially be over with a gigantic price take.
But now we're gonna know.
Okay, next time we see a pathogen, we can make billions of tests.
Within two or three weeks, we can figure out which antiviral drugs work within two or three weeks and get those killed up.
And we can make a vaccine if we're really ready.
Probably in six months.
Uh, using these new platforms, probably the vaccine.
So specifically, there are innovations that are there that will get financed.
Uh, you know, I hope, quite generously coming out of this thing.
And so three years from now, we'll look back and say, You know, that was awful.
There's a lot of heroes, but we've learned the lesson, and and the world as a whole, with its great science and desire to help each other, was able to try and minimize what happened there and and and avoid it happening again.
That's certainly the optimistic scenario that I'm craving for myself that that the world kind of realize is one that that there are certain things that you just have to unite on to.
That science really matters on that site that it's a miracle that science could understand this bug, you know, make a vaccine sequence.
It make therapeutics understand how to model.
It is kind of a reckless to me.
So will we learn now to to pay attention to scientists?
Because if we do, I I'm sure that you feel this is well, there's an amazing analog, right with climate.
It's just a different time scale that the scientists are out there saying There's this huge enemy coming.
If we do nothing, it's going to take millions of lives.
It's gonna wreck our planet, for God's sake.
At politicians do something on the politicians ago, huh?
No need more GDP.
We need to win an election.
And they're not acting.
May I mean, is that do you see a scenario where this shocks politicians to actually change their thinking and their prioritization of science of our order?
Is that asking too much?
Yeah, it's interesting how much of this distraction will delay the urgent innovation agenda that exists over Incline Mint and I have freed up a lot of time to work on climate.
I have to say in the last few months, that's now shifted.
Until we get out of this crisis, uh, Covad will dominate.
And so some of the climate stuff, although it will still go on it won't get that Same focus is we get past this.
Uh, yes, that idea of innovation and science and the world working together that is totally common between these two problems.
And so I don't think this has to be a huge setback for climate.
So last question.
There, there, thousands of people watching many of them living alone, some scared that maybe these people there who have who have this virus and suffering symptoms or recovering by the way, If that's if that's you would love to hear from you, we really would maybe have a conversation with somebody You've just, you know, in the future, one of these just understanding the experience.
But, Bill, what can people do as individuals from their own homes right now to try and help?
Well, there's a lot of creativity.
Can you mentor kids who are being forced into an online format where the school systems really weren't ready for that?
Can you organize some giving activity that gets the food banks to step up where there's problems there.
These air such unprecedented times.
And it really should draw out that that sense of Ah, you know, creativity.
Wow.
Complying with the isolation mandates.
Well, Bill, I really want to thank you for spending this time with us and for the the financial investment that time investment.
You really invested your life into trying to solve these big problems.
And this is a CZ bigas they get I have a hunch that your voice is really gonna be needed in the next few weeks.
Thank you so much for your field time today.
This was this was really wonderful hearing for me.
Thank you.
Thanks, Chris.
Okay, well, thanks, everyone.
Fence of being part of the tech community.
Look after cells to be smart about this, you know, it's like, get ahead of it If you're in part of the world where this thing hasn't really hit, listen to Bill Gates Get ahead of it to keep you know it.
Just if you possibly can socially distance.
Not not physically distance and socially connected.
That's what the Internet is for.
These days are what the Internet was built for.
Weaken, spread, love.
We can spread ideas we can spread relationship, inspect or without spreading a dangerous berg.
So get ahead of it.
And let's figure this out together.
It's been wonderful spending time with you from Whitney on for me, from the whole team.
Thank you.
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How we must respond to the COVID-19 pandemic | Bill Gates

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林宜悉 2020 年 3 月 27 日 に公開

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