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  • When I first heard about solar geo-engineering as an atmospheric chemist I thought this

  • was an absolutely crazy idea and even considering this was really quite out there.

  • For a long time it was considered kind of a fringe or a whacky idea. For a couple of reasons. In

  • part this stuff sounds like science fiction. And it also sounds like a desperate type of

  • human response. The more I learned about climate change and where that is taking us and humanity,

  • the more I got worried about this. If in 10, 15 years humanity finds itself in a real crisis

  • and populations really demand that decision makers take action now, not words, but actions.

  • Then one of the few things you can do to take fast action is stratospheric geoengineering.

  • And I think if we haven't done research on this, despite how crazy this idea is, then

  • that’s a really bad ideaIn the end, the risk of not doing research on this may be bigger

  • than the risk of doing research.

  • Climate engineering is an umbrella term for a set

  • of imagined technological responses to climate change. And I say imagined because most of

  • the technologies that are being talked about are only on the chalk board at this pointThe

  • latest frontrunner is solar geoengineering, a plan that would disperse particles into the

  • stratosphere and could reduce global temperatures by bouncing the Sun's rays back into space.

  • It's an idea that picked up steam over a decade ago when a famous scientist called for more

  • research. Crutzen won the Nobel Prize for his work on atmospheric chemistry of ozone

  • depletion and he wrote a paper which made the case for investigation into solar geoengineering

  • as a response to climate changeBasically he said we're not getting there fast enough

  • just with political means. So we scientists and technologists have to see that there are

  • additional things that have to be done. There's a previous report by the IPCC and what comes

  • out of that is fundamentally in just a few years, our emissions have to be zero not half

  • in 2030 and zero in 2050. And I'm like, well there's absolutely zero chance this will happen.

  • With growing urgency and scientific interest, a team at Harvard University took up the charge

  • to investigate solar geoengineering in a fully fledged research programFrom my perspective,

  • before you perturb a system, it probably is a good idea to understand the system.

  • So one has to understand that in a climate system, everything is coupled togetherWhere we

  • live in the troposphere there's a huge variety of particles. It turns out in the stratosphere

  • it's much, much simplerYou have emissions of sulfur containing compounds in the troposphere.

  • They make their way up all the way into the stratosphere. They find each other and start

  • making little particles. That's the natural aerosol that exists in the stratosphere.

  • A major source of these sulfur compounds are volcanic eruptions. When Mount Pinatubo erupted

  • in the Philippines, it blew nearly 20 million tons of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere.

  • That surplus created a blanket that cooled the Earth by .5 degree Celsius for roughly

  • 15 monthsScientists see this as a proxy for solar geoengineering’s potential, but

  • these sulfate aerosols come with consequencesWe know that on these highly acidic surfaces

  • of these aerosols, reactions occur that can result in ozone depletion. We also know based

  • on the molecular properties of sulfuric acid in water that this absorbs radiation and that

  • heats up the stratosphere. I'm thinking are there materials that could have less side effects?

  • This is what Zhen Dai, a PhD student at Harvard is investigating. She built this

  • table top experiment to explore alternative particles that could potentially cool the

  • planet and minimize risks to the ozoneCalcium carbonate is interesting mostly because of

  • its chemical propertiesSpecifically, it's kind of a common thing that we see everyday,

  • in toothpaste, a whitener for paper, it's relatively safe for human beingsWe use

  • something called a flow tube experiment where basically, your particles sits on kind of

  • a tube inside the flowtube there. And you have an injector that comes in through the tube.

  • We basically push the injector upstream of the particles so that the gas would interact

  • with the particlesWe suspect that if we put those calcite particles into the stratosphere,

  • they might interact with the acidic species, such as hydrogen chloride, and sequester some

  • of those. Those species happen to be related to ozone loss. Even with this experimentation,

  • the Harvard team is aware of its limitsHow much trust would anybody have that these researchers

  • at Harvard have replicated the complexity of the stratosphere in their little flow tube

  • of one meter? I would hope most people would say, "Well, I don't quite know whether that's

  • sufficient for me to put my trust in." I'm not going to tell the world, you know, "Yes,

  • just trust my lab results." I want to know how it actually behaves. That means you have

  • to intentionally put some of it into the stratosphere.

  • SCoPEx is the Stratospheric Controlled Perturbation Experiment.

  • We're going to have a balloon that's

  • going to be at 20 kilometers. And below that we are going to have what we call an equipment

  • gondola that's hanging here. It will have all the instrumentation in it. In there we're

  • going to have a system to disperse aerosols a few hundred grams of calcium carbonate.

  • Less material than a normal airplane flight actually puts out in the atmosphereIt makes

  • what we call a plume behind it. What we want to do is then turn around and fly back through

  • this plume at various points in itAnd that actually in a way is a little bit like a flow

  • tube in the lab. It is a truly small experiment. From the material we're going to place there,

  • it will have absolutely zero impact on the ground. But, the idea is that we'll be able

  • to learn does the air around our particle evolve the way we think it should based on

  • our lab model? I want to actually find out as much as possible what are the effects of

  • doing this and risks. We're slowly getting these things together. We will test them in

  • the lab. We have a big chamber where we can reduce the pressure to stratospheric pressures.

  • We're just at the beginning of thinking about how to do these experiments.

  • Before it even takes flight, the Harvard team set up an advisory committee that’s acting as an independent

  • check on their developmentsWe want to try to have SCoPEx not just be an experiment that

  • can advance science of geoengineering, but to also make sure that it's done in a way

  • that tries to exemplify good governanceOne thing to make clear is that even if we're

  • technologically ready we're going to have to wait for the advisory committee and see

  • whether they think that we've really done all the things they expect us to do with this.

  • Solar geoengineering was recently on the agenda at the UN Environment Assembly

  • to kickstart a global conversation. Because if a country decides in 10-15 years that they

  • need to act fast with a massive fleet of aircraft, there are systematic unknowns to bear in mind.

  • The problem is if we find out, at some point "Oh, there's a big side effect. We need to stop this now.

  • What's gonna happen is you're gonna jump back up to that steep point in the steeper curve.

  • That's called termination shock because you've, sort of, given the system

  • a really hard shock by just stopping. SCoPEx is a very small experiment before we even

  • get to that scenario. But still, it’s been a lightning rod for criticism. I think the

  • reason SCoPEx has ignited so much controversy is not because of the actual physical impact,

  • but the symbolism of the experiment. The first is the so called slippery slope. If you start

  • with a small scale experiment then that just kind of opens the door to larger scale investigation.

  • The second reason is that lots of folks see this type of work as a distraction from what

  • they think really needs to happen: emissions abatement, adaptation, that's where the game

  • should be. And something like solar geoengineering might serve as an excuse for some people to

  • kind of take their foot off the gas pedal on those more important forms of climate action.

  • And with this conversation, comes another source of controversyThe chemtrails conspiracy

  • suggests that solar geoengineering is already taking place through this chemtrails activity.

  • That's a myth. Chemtrails are not a real thing. I know lots of people are going to disagree

  • with me on that, but there's no scientific evidence.

  • If this research effort shows geoengineering’s

  • benefits outweigh its risks, it could potentially reduce global temperatures. It would not fix

  • the root cause, which is the rising funnel of greenhouse gas emissions that are getting

  • trapped in our atmosphere.

  • I think if we're not having strong action on emissions, pursuing

  • stratospheric geoengineering is quite risky because then, we have this mirage of something

  • that helps us. The only reasonable way to even consider something as contentious as

  • this is as one small component of a portfolio of response optionsOften consideration

  • of climate change is not based on science. It's based on ideology. It's based on our

  • belief systems. If you believe that human beings got into this mess because they're

  • hubristic and because technology has run away from us, then you're probably opposed to even

  • consideration of solar geoengineeringIt just seems like a bad ideaIf on the other

  • hand, you believe that scientists are the last bulwark that we have against coming climate

  • chaos, then you might give license to scientists to do investigation in this area, because

  • we need to know what's out thereIt's these clashing worldviews that makes the consideration

  • of solar geoengineering, and frankly climate actions writ large, so contentious. I really

  • hope humanity gets its act together and actually goes after solving their problem fast enough

  • that in the end we will never have to consider actually doing this. But I'm not convinced we're doing this.

  • The ability to solve global problems as a global community has not improved in the last

  • years and that makes me even more concerned about this

  • and that we will not be able to fix this problem in time.

When I first heard about solar geo-engineering as an atmospheric chemist I thought this

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世界初の太陽電池ジオエンジニアリング試験が物議を醸す理由 (Why the World’s First Solar Geoengineering Test Is So Controversial)

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    林宜悉 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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