20、 Obama
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way.
Look around the media as we see on the news from Iraq, Afghanistan, Sierra Leone and the conflict seems incomprehensible to us.
And that's certainly how it seemed to me when I started this project.
But as a physicist, I thought, you know Well, if you give me some daughter, I can maybe understand this.
Give us a go.
So as a naive New Zealander, I thought, Well, I'll go to the Pentagon.
Can you give me some information?
No.
So I had to think a little harder and I was watching the news one night in Oxford and I looked down on chattering heads and my channel of choice, and I saw that there was information there.
There was data within the streams of news that we consume and all this noise around us actually has information.
And so what?
I started thinking Waas.
Perhaps there's something like open source intelligence here.
If we can get enough of these streams of information together, we can perhaps start to understand the war.
And so this is exactly what I did.
We started bringing a team together and it just discipline.
Retain have scientists of economists, mathematicians.
We bought these guys together and we started, try and solve this and we did it in three steps.
The first step we did was to collect and we did 130 different sources of information from NGO reports to newspapers and cable news.
We brought this roared out around and we filtered it and we extracted the key bits of information to build the database.
And that database contained the timing of attacks, the location, the size and the weapons used.
It's all in the streams of information we consume daily.
We just have to know how to pull it out.
And once we had this, we could start doing some cool stuff.
What if we would look at the distribution of the sizes of attacks?
What would that tell us?
And so we started doing this and you can see here on the horizontal axis, you've got the number of people killed in an attack or the size of the attack on the vertical axis.
You've got the number of attacks as we plot data.
For example, on this, you see some sort of random distribution, perhaps 67 attacks.
One person was killed or 47 attacks with seven people were killed and we did this exact same thing for rock.
And we didn't know for Iraq what we were gonna find and it tends out.
What we found was pretty surprising.
You take all of the conflict, all the chaos, all the noise.
And out of that comes his precise mathematical distribution of the way attacks awarded in this conflict.
And this blew our mind.
Why should a conflict like Iraq have this as its fundamental signature?
Why should they be order in war?
And we didn't really understand that.
But we thought maybe there's something special about Iraq.
And so we looked at a few more conflicts.
We looked at Columbia, looked in Afghanistan and we looked at Senegal and the same pattern emerged in age conflict.
This wasn't supposed to happen.
The's a different wars with different religious factions, different political factions, a different social economic problems and yet the fundamental patterns underlying them at the same.
And so it went a little wider.
We looked around the world, all the data we could get her hands on.
From Peru to Indonesia, we studied the same pattern again, and we found that not only were the distributions these straight lines.
But the slope of those lines they clustered around this value of Al Freak was 2.5, and we could generate an equation that predict the likelihood of an attack.
What we're saying here is the probability of an attack.
Killing X number of people in a country like Iraq is equal to a constant time to size of that attack race.
The power of negative Alfa and negative fell for his dislike for that line I showed you before.
So what?
This is daughter's statistics.
What does it tell us about these conflicts?
And that was a challenge we had to fais as physicists.
How do we explain this?
And what we really found was that Alfa, if we think about it, is the organizational structure of the insurgency.
Alfa is a distribution of the sizes of attacks, which is really the distribution of the group strength, carrying out the attacks.
And so we looked at process of group dynamics, coalescence and fragmentation groups coming together, groups breaking a pot and we start running the numbers on this.
Can't we simulate it?
Can we create the kind of patents that we're seeing in places like Iraq.
Turns out we kind of do a reasonable job.
We can run these simulations.
We can recreate this using a process of group dynamics to explain the patterns that we see all around the conflicts around the world.
So what's going on?
Why should these different, seemingly different complex have the same patents now?
What I believe is going on is that the insurgent forces they evolve over time, they adapt.
And it turns out there's only one solution to fight a much stronger enemy.
And if you don't find that solution is an insurgent force, you don't exist.
And so every insurgent force that is ongoing, every conflict, it's ongoing.
It's gotta look something like this, and that's we think is happening.
Taking it forward.
How do we change it?
How do we end a war like Iraq?
What does it look like?
Alpher is the structure.
It's got a stable state, a 2.5.
This is what wars look like when they continue.
We gotta change that.
We can push it up.
The force has become more fragmented.
There's more of them, but that weaker we push it down, the more robust there's less groups But perhaps you can sit and talk to them.
And so this graph here, I'm going to show you now.
No one seems before.
This is literally stuff that have come through last week and we see the evolution of Alfa through time.
We see it start and we see it dropped to the stable state that wars around the world looked like.
And it stays there through the invasion of Fallujah, until the Samarra bombings, the Iraqi elections of our six.
And the system gets perturbed that moves upwards to a fragmented state.
And this is when the surge happens.
And depending on who you ask the surge of spice to push it up even further.
The opposite happened, the groups became stronger, they became more robust.
And some thinking, right, great is gonna keep going down.
We can talk to them.
We can get a solution.
The opposite happened has moved up again.
The groups are more fragmented.
And this tells me one of two things.
Either we're back where we started and the search has had no effect.
Or finally, the group's been fragmented.
To the extent that we can start, think about might be moving out I don't know what the answer is to that, but I know we should be looking at the structure of the insurgency to answer that question.
Thank you.
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Sean Gourley on the mathematics of war

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林宜悉 2020 年 3 月 23 日 に公開

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