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Corporations sold a lot of debt last week.
They sold so much, in fact, that they
set a record for the most corporate debt sold in a week.
But if you think that means more investment going
into the economy, you may want to think again.
We have double the charts this week,
which means double the fun.
So let's get started.
So let's start with this large chart down here.
This data comes from Dealogic and it
shows the total amount of corporate debt issued
each year going back to 1999.
So it includes both high yield and investment grade debt.
As with most charts that go back over the financial crisis,
you can kind of see the effects of that
here with a large rise and then a large tumble.
But ever since then the issuance of corporate debt
each year has been rising.
And that's because borrowing costs have been low.
Now keep in mind this point right here is 2019.
We're not all the way through 2019 yet.
So even though each of these other observations
contains the entire year's worth of data
we only have up until September for this data point.
So this potentially is going to rise over
the course of the year.
Now, if we were to zoom in on that data point,
we would get this chart right here,
which shows 2019 corporate debt issuance from January
through the first week in September.
So this spike right here - this is last week.
This was the record setting corporate debt week
that we observed.
So why did this suddenly happen when the levels of debt
have been a little bit more stable
over the course of the year and then you have this shoot up?
Well, in August, Treasury yields were really low.
And so that meant that corporations
were able to issue debt at a low interest
rate, which means the cost to them
is much lower to borrow money.
Why would investors want to buy debt at a low interest rate?
Well, remember that in other markets - other bond markets
- there are negative interest rates right now.
So even if you're getting a low interest rate,
if it's in positive territory and you're an investor,
right now you're thinking that might not be the worst deal.
Two really unique things about this last week.
One was that usually when we see a bump in debt like this
it's because of some mega deal that's happened.
But that actually wasn't the case.
It was just companies issuing debt.
They just saw an opportunity and they took it.
So, for example, Apple sold $7bn in debt.
Disney sold $7bn in debt.
And there was a little bit more of a concentration
from US corporations issuing debt.
Although remember, this data contains the entire globe.
Now let's talk about the second interesting thing
that has to do with this debt issuance.
Normally, when a company issues debt
they do it so that they can take that money
and invest it in new products or services that they offer.
So they're expanding their business.
They're investing in something new in the economy.
Well actually, with this issuance last week
a lot of companies said they're actually
using the money to pay off old debts
and essentially restructuring their current debt so that it's
over a longer maturity period.
So if you thought, oh great, all these companies,
they're going to be investing their money
in new things for the economy.
Well actually, it may not be the case.
At the same time though that means
that the total amount of leverage
that a company may have isn't necessarily going up too much.
So if the total level of corporate debt out
there worries you.
If you think, ah, this looks like something
that could be a bubble that burst
in the case of a recession, well you're not necessarily wrong.
But remember that if that were to happen
the first place that we would see
it is in the high yield debt market.
Because remember high-yield debt refers to companies
that are already in a situation where
they're going to have a hard time paying back the money
they owe.
So if you're worried about it, keep an eye
on the high-yield markets.
But as for now, I say let's wait and see
what happens to the end of 2019 and see if this record
week turns into a record year.