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  • Protesters in Hong Kong are demanding political reform

  • but chief executive Carrie Lam's strategy to placate them

  • is to focus on economic issues.

  • The argument she and Beijing have championed

  • is that the unrest is due to a lack of economic opportunity.

  • And a big part of that is due to Hong Kong

  • having the least affordable property market in the world.

  • By one estimate the median price of a flat

  • is 21 times median salary.

  • In London, it's less than five.

  • So last week, Lam announced that Hong Kongers would be allowed

  • to take up mortgages of up to 90 per cent on a flat valued at up

  • to US$1m.

  • That is a complete reversal of 10 years worth of failed

  • attempts to cool the market by restricting mortgage lending.

  • She also pledged to seize 700 hectares of land

  • from developers to help ease the housing shortage.

  • However, the main beneficiaries of both measures

  • will be the one group of people in Hong Kong who

  • really don't need any help at all - property tycoons.

  • On the face of it, easing mortgage restrictions

  • should mean people are no longer priced out of the market.

  • The reality is that Hong Kong property prices only 5

  • per cent off their all-time high.

  • And accessibility isn't necessarily affordability.

  • Telling homebuyers they can leverage up

  • with prices near record highs and the economy facing

  • recession is a great way to put people at risk in falling

  • into negative equity.

  • But what about land seizures?

  • Won't that hurt the developers?

  • Well, probably not.

  • In Hong Kong, just four developers

  • own farm land, covering 150m potential square feet

  • of floor space - six times the size of Monaco.

  • What's more, the government will have

  • to pay market prices for the land it seizes.

  • But the kicker is that the government already

  • controls the amount of land released

  • for development each year.

  • The way Hong Kong's political system is structured is that

  • the tycoons who control developers have outsize

  • representation on the 1,200-person committee that

  • chooses Hong Kong's chief executive.

  • So Lam's government is incentivised

  • to respond to their wishes, not those of ordinary people, when

  • it comes to how much land is made available for new housing.

  • And that means developers have little interest

  • in any democratic reforms that can

  • loosen their grip on Hong Kong's lucrative property market.

Protesters in Hong Kong are demanding political reform

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キャリー・ラム氏が住宅市場のせいにする理由|香港を理解する (Why Carrie Lam wrongly blames the housing market | Understanding Hong Kong)

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    林宜悉 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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