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As a newly minted naval officer, I was assigned to an unusual government facility on an island in the Pacific.
It was built within a deep ravine and buried under 30 feet of concrete and dirt.
All that was seen from the outside a pineapple field.
And it was deep underground that I learned my specialization in the Navy Information warfare, and I learned an important concept called Buta Loop.
Did you know that you are in the little loop right now?
Buddha stands for Observe Orient Decide act in every sentiment.
Creature observes its surroundings, orients itself to the situation, decides and act.
It's continuous.
It's such an important concept for the military because if you can disrupt your adversaries decision making process or make your own faster or more effective, then you have the strategic advantage.
Well, today I'm a technologist and gratefully above ground in offices with my colleagues, frequently with sunshine streaming through the windows.
But today, more than ever, I need to understand what's happening inside someone else's mind, and that's because my team and I, we solve global security challenges.
Using cognitive computing, we teach computer systems to reason and learn the way humans do.
And in order for us to make this technology work, we have to first understand what the expert reasoning process is.
President Obama recently expressed his own wish to tap expert thinking strategies of others.
He confided to his presidential historian, The situation in Syria haunts me constantly.
I often wonder, Was there something we hadn't thought of, some move that hadn't been presented to me, that maybe a Churchill would have seen or an Eisenhower would have figured out?
I think I wish I could envision another level of insight.
President Obama doesn't want Churchill specific plan to capture Europe.
Recapture Europe.
He wanted to understand.
How did Churchill unravel a global security challenge that was fraught with violence, dissolving borders, conflicting international interests and a humanitarian crisis the world had never seen before?
He wants to understand.
How did church will think about solving a global security challenge?
Well, we can't resurrect Churchill er, Eisenhower.
Their way of thinking is lost to us forever.
When people die, their way of thinking goes with um within an hour, the wisdom of 6153 people will be gone, and within a year, the wisdom and expertise of 55.3 million people.
Losing that expertise is like the ancient Library of Alexandria burning to the ground every year.
But we don't have to lose expertise this way.
What if we had a bank where we could save and turned to the bank to help us solve global security challenges like food, water security, energy resource contention, extremism, human migration, intractable geopolitical problems?
Well, To do that, we would need to begin to collect the expert thinking strategies of people alive.
Today there's an industry that's already recorded and scaled out its expert thinking strategies.
I'll give you an example.
You feel unwell.
You have a low grade fever and a sore throat.
You go to your doctor for help.
She checks your symptoms.
She's Bob's your throat looking for evidence of a bacterial infection.
After a few moments, she says, I'm sorry.
I've observed the evidence, and there is none indicating a bacterial infection.
I've decided you have a virus.
I'm not prescribing antibiotic.
Well, your doctor has just existed in her own little loop, observing symptoms, orienting herself to the situation and deciding what to do.
And it's in that 2nd 0 of orientation that she's applied an expert thinking strategy that you and I would call a diagnosis.
It's an expert thinking strategies she learned in medical school.
The medical community has scaled this out, and it applies for all.
Disease diagnosis.
Very powerful example.
Well, I've been thinking about how to apply and scale better thinking strategies in my own domain since I first learned about the Doodle Loop.
But my focus sharpened during the war in Iraq.
Many of us will remember then Secretary of Defense Colin Powell presenting dramatic evidence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.
The conclusions drawn about that evidence were wrong, and two years later, the weapons of Mass Destruction Commission report submitted its findings to the president.
And, they wrote, the commission found no indication that the intelligence community distorted evidence of weapons of mass destruction.
What intelligence professionals told you about Saddam Hussein's programs was what they believed they were simply wrong.
I was devastated.
I know analysts who do this sort of work for a living.
They're smart, they're committed, they strive for objectivity.
How did this happen?
Well, part of the answer is that they didn't apply an expert thinking strategy.
The report cited examples of analysts failing to validate sources and not seeking explanations.
Different explanations for the evidence that they did have.
In my community.
This is called ah, confirmation bias.
But even for analysts who strive for objectivity, it's a very human cognitive trap.
There are thinking strategies to mitigate this kind of thinking flaw, but evidently they weren't used.
Some say this failure to apply the right thinking strategy accelerated US commitment of troops in Iraq.
I've concluded that analysts were having trouble with that.
2nd 0 despite the evidence that they had on hand, they couldn't make sense of it.
What if they had a bank off the finest thinking strategies to use as a fail safe against cognitive mistakes in their own potential?
Thinking flies sound like science fiction.
It's not.
I know we can record human thinking strategies because my team and I, we do it already to some extent, with some very straightforward methods.
And I'm gonna share one with you right now because if you want to get inside the head of an expert or even a teenager, so all you parents out there I hope you're leaning forward in your seat.
Here's what you do.
You say.
What were you thinking when you made that decision?
And then you wait for the answer seriously.
When you get the answer, you can record it in text and audio and video.
It's semantic Web with flow charts.
There are many ways to do that, and then it's ready for a library.
It's ready to be archived and used again.
And the exciting thing is, with the pace of research in neuroscience, I'm confident in a decade will have an even more holistic approach to recording expert thinking strategies.
So when we have the methodology worked out, here's the real question.
Who's gonna have access to those methods and, more importantly, who will have access to the results?
Shouldn't they be preserved and protected?
I believe they should.
I propose we build a library of human cognition, not a library for books and speeches or music.
Those are the by products of human thinking and important.
But I want to record and preserve the expert thinking strategies of people as they create those books composed that music right, those speeches.
I want to do it on a global scale, and I believe it should be a public library because open domain access to human expertise would become a foundry for innovation.
The first libraries were a revolution.
The library of human cognition would also be a revolution.
The first libraries allowed people to aggregate knowledge and share it even after the creator's past will.
Similarly, with a library of human cognition, we could extend human expertise to a new place to a new time a new environment, maybe for problems we've never seen before.
With a library of human cognition, we can put the wisdom of generations in the hands of new leaders grappling with global security challenges.
Let's build this not just for presidents.
Let's build this for ourselves.
Thank you.
コツ:単語をクリックしてすぐ意味を調べられます!

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A library of minds | Juliane Gallina | TED Institute

林宜悉 2020 年 3 月 21 日 に公開
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