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  • When trains began to shuttle people across the coutryside,

  • many insisted they would never replace horses.

  • Less than a century later, people repeated that same prediction about cars,

  • telephones,

  • radio,

  • television,

  • and computers.

  • Each had their own host of detractors.

  • Even some experts insisted they wouldn’t catch on.

  • Of course, we can’t predict exactly what the future will look like

  • or what new inventions will populate it.

  • But time and time again,

  • weve also failed to predict that the technologies of the present

  • will change the future.

  • And recent research has revealed a similar pattern in our individual lives:

  • were unable to predict change in ourselves.

  • Three psychologists documented our inability to predict personal change

  • in a 2013 paper called, “The End of History Illusion.”

  • Named after political scientist Francis Fukuyama’s prediction

  • that liberal democracy was the final form of government,

  • or as he called it, “the end of history,”

  • their work highlights the way we see ourselves as finished products

  • at any given moment.

  • The researchers recruited over 7,000 participants ages 18 to 68.

  • They asked half of these participants to report their current personality traits,

  • values,

  • and preferences,

  • along with what each of those metrics had been ten years before.

  • The other half described those features in their present selves,

  • and predicted what they would be ten years in the future.

  • Based on these answers,

  • the researchers then calculated the degree of change

  • each participant reported or predicted.

  • For every age group in the sample,

  • they compared the predicted changes to the reported changes.

  • So they compared the degree to which 18-year-olds thought they would change

  • to the degree to which 28-year-olds reported they had changed.

  • Overwhelmingly, at all ages,

  • people’s future estimates of change came up short

  • compared to the changes their older counterparts recalled.

  • 20-year-olds expected to still like the same foods at 30,

  • but 30-year-olds no longer had the same tastes.

  • 30-year-olds predicted they’d still have the same best friend at 40,

  • but 40-year-olds had lost touch with theirs.

  • And 40-year-olds predicted they’d maintain the same core values

  • that 50-year-olds had reconsidered.

  • While older people changed less than younger people on the whole,

  • they underestimated their capacity for change just as much.

  • Wherever we are in life, the end of history illusion persists:

  • we tend to think that the bulk of our personal change is behind us.

  • One consequence of this thinking

  • is that were inclined to overinvest in future choices

  • based on present preferences.

  • On average, people are willing to pay about 60% more

  • to see their current favorite musician ten years in the future

  • than they’d currently pay to see their favorite musician from ten years ago.

  • While the stakes involved in concert-going are low,

  • were susceptible to similar miscalculations

  • in more serious commitments,

  • like homes,

  • partners,

  • and jobs.

  • At the same time, there’s no real way to predict

  • what our preferences will be in the future.

  • Without the end of history Illusion,

  • it would be difficult to make any long-term plans.

  • So the end of history illusion applies to our individual lives,

  • but what about the wider world?

  • Could we be assuming that how things are now is how they will continue to be?

  • If so, fortunately, there are countless records

  • to remind us that the world does change, sometimes for the better.

  • Our own historical moment isn’t the end of history,

  • and that can be just as much a source of comfort as a cause for concern.

When trains began to shuttle people across the coutryside,

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歴史の終わり」の幻想 - ベンス・ナナイ (The "End of History" Illusion - Bence Nanay)

  • 14 1
    林宜悉 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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