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  • On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization made an announcement.


  • In the past two weeks, the number of cases of COVID-19 outside China has increased 13-fold.


  • COVID-19 can be characterized as a pandemic.


  • The coronavirus, or COVID-19 disease, had already overwhelmed China, South Korea, Iran, and Italy.

    コロナウイルス(COVID−19)は、 中国・韓国・イラン・イタリアですでに猛威を振るっていました。

  • And this was a warning to other countries where it was now spreading quickly.

    これは、現在感染が急激に増えている 国への警告でもありました。

  • In the days and weeks ahead, we expect to see the number of cases, the number of deaths, and the number affected countries climb even higher.

    今後、数日間から数週間のあいだに 患者数、死亡者数、影響を受ける国がさらに増えるものと予想されます。

  • The spread of COVID-19 was no longer something that could be stopped.

    COVID-19の感染拡大を、 もはや止めることは出来ません。

  • But we can still slow it down.

    しかしながら、 遅らせることは出来ます。

  • We just have to act right now.


  • Someone with COVID-19 usually develops a fever and a cough.

    COVID-19に感染した場合、 発熱、疲れ、咳などの症状があります。

  • Aches, pains, and other mild symptoms are also possible, but are less frequent.


  • But the severity of those symptoms varies, and for some people who get the virus, you might never show symptoms at all.

    感染の重症度には差があり、 ウイルスに感染していた場合でも、全く症状が見られない場合もあります。

  • Based on the data from China, the vast majority of cases are not life-threatening.


  • In 80 percent of cases, people experience only mild disease.


  • But in 20 percent of cases, the disease can manifest in a more serious way.

    残りの2割は重症化すると 明らかになっています。

  • It can develop into quite a severe pneumonia, where people need to be hospitalized and put on ventilators.


  • Overall, it seems like about 1 to 2 percent of known cases lead to death, but that rate is much lower for young people, and much higher for the elderly.

    致死率は約1〜2%と言われていますが、その確率は若年層で低く、 高齢者層でかなり高くなっています。

  • And it also seems as if people with unmanaged underlying chronic diseases, they also have a tougher time overcoming the virus.


  • The virus also seems to be very contagious, more contagious than the flu.

    このウイルスはとても感染力が強く、 インフルエンザよりも感染しやすいとされています。

  • All you need to do to spread COVID-19 is cough or sneeze on someone else.


  • Touch a surface where the virus still lives, and then put your hand in your mouth or your eyes or your nose.


  • After getting infected, it can take an average of five to six days before you feel sick, and your symptoms start to appear.


  • But you can already spread it to other people in that period, even if you feel healthy.

    無自覚のまま 他人にうつしてしまう可能性があります。

  • Just as people realize they're sick, they seem to be at the most risk of passing it along to others.


  • That's how the virus has been so effective at spreading across the world so quickly and why the WHO was now calling COVID-19 a pandemic.

    このようにウイルスは瞬く間に拡散し、世界中に感染が広がりました。そのため、WHOがCOVID-19を パンデミックと宣言しました。

  • But what they said next was just as important.


  • We cannot say this loudly enough.


  • All countries can still change the course of this pandemic.

    全ての国が、まだこのパンデミックの 広がり方を変えられるということ。

  • And that depends on something each of us needs to do as individuals.

    これは 私たち1人1人の行動にかかっています。

  • So diseases become really dangerous when everyone gets sick at once, and the health system becomes overwhelmed.


  • In any hospital, the capacity to treat patients is limited by how many beds they have.

    病院のベッドの数は限られているため、 受け入れられる患者数も限られています。

  • Think of this as the number of beds in your local hospital at any given time.


  • A couple are already filled by patients receiving treatment for things like a car accident injury or a stroke.


  • And this dot represents one person who's healthy and decides to go out like usual.

    この丸を健康で通常通り生活をする 1人の人間とします。

  • They jump on the subway and head into the office, where they catch COVID-19.

    地下鉄に乗り会社に行き、 そこでCOVID-19に感染したとします。

  • But they don't feel sick right away, and might not for several days.

    しかしすぐには症状が現れず、 何日もの間、感染に気づきません。

  • So, later they go to a basketball game, where they unknowingly infect two or three more people.


  • Most of these people will have relatively mild cases, but one might be an elderly person with a severe case who will eventually have to go to the hospital.


  • But these three, who are all infected but don't feel sick, go out again.


  • On the subway, into the office, and then out after work, infecting several more people, twenty percent of whom will need to go to the hospital.

    地下鉄で、オフィスで、会社帰りに さらに多くの人に感染が広がります。感染者の2割が病院に行く必要があるとされています。

  • Over a short period of time, this process multiplies the number of people going to the hospital each day.


  • Before long, the hospital is full and a crisis begins.

    やがて病院は人で溢れ 危機的状況となります。

  • People with severe cases of COVID-19 can't get treatment, and some who could be saved, die.

    重傷者が適切な処置を受けることができず、救えたはずの命が 救われないことになります。

  • Plus, people with other issues can't get treatment either and some of them die.


  • This surge of severe cases causes avoidable deaths.


  • That's what happened in South Korea, Iran, and Italy, all of which went from 100 to more than 5,000 cases in less than two weeks.

    韓国・イラン・イタリアでは2週間以内の間に100〜5000人が 病院に殺到しました。

  • A lot of people died because they couldn't get into the hospitals.

    病院で診てもらうことができずに、 多くの命が失われました。

  • This surge is made up of only the severe cases, but it was generated by people who didn't feel sick spreading the disease in public.

    重傷者が殺到する要因となったのは 感染していても症状がなく無自覚のうちにウイルスを広めてしまった人たちによるものです。

  • Which means the people who can do the most to avoid these unnecessary deaths, are these people.

    こういった人たちが移動を制限することにより、 不必要な死を無くすことができます。

  • And that means all of us.


  • To slow the virus down, you need to act as if you already have it.

    ウイルスを減らすためには、 すでに感染していると思って行動する必要があります。

  • By avoiding public transportation, the office, crowded places, and even small social gatherings, you decrease your chances of both getting the disease, and spreading it.

    公共交通機関、会社、混雑場所、 そして小さい集まりなども避けるようにしましょう。感染する確率、感染させる確率 両方を減らすことができます。

  • This is called social distancing.

    これを、ソーシャルディスタンシング (社会的距離を持つ)と言います。

  • If enough of us do it, the virus still spreadsbut much slower.

    私たちが意識を持って行動すれば、 ウイルスの拡散はぐっと少なくなります。

  • Over time, many people might still get infected, but fewer severe cases show up to the hospital each day, never overwhelming the system.

    これから感染者が増えても 重症になり病院に行く人が減れば医療崩壊を防ぐことができます。

  • This trendline gets flatter, these people can all get treatment, and fewer people die because of it.

    この線の流れをなだらかに、 すなわち必要なすべての人が病院で診てもらうことができ 死亡者を減らすように。

  • These are the two ways the COVID-19 pandemic can play out.


  • But this one only happens if everyone does their part.

    皆さんが行動した場合に 起こり得ます。

  • And it's why experts and officials are urging people to "flatten the curve" by social distancing, and staying home as much as possible.


  • It's also why In the U.S., many companies are helping by requiring employees to work from home and major sports leagues have canceled their games for the time being.


  • It may seem drastic but it's worked before.

    やりすぎのようにも見えますが、 これまでにも効果がありました。

  • In 1918, the cities of Philadelphia and St. Louis were both hit by a flu pandemic, but they responded in different ways.


  • In Philadelphia, health officials allowed a huge parade to go ahead.


  • While in St. Louis, officials prepared.


  • They closed schools, theaters, and bars.


  • Philadelphia's hospitals were overwhelmed and many more died as a result.


  • But St. Louis was able to avoid those excessive deaths.


  • A hundred years later, these are the two scenarios we face.

    100年たった今、 2つのシナリオに直面しています。

  • A difference not in whether you get the coronavirus, but when you get it.


  • That could mean the difference between life and death, maybe for someone you know.


  • We have to act now.


On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization made an announcement.


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