Name: パンデミック病原体 (Pandemic Pathogens)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T09:23:16.000Z
Duration: 30 min 13 s
Description: VoiceTubeの動画で発音を聞きながら英語表現を覚えよう！学べる英語：新型コロナウイルス,新型肺炎,COVID-19

What I'm going to talk about here are the characteristics and traits of pandemic pathogens.

You just heard my colleague Crystal's talk where she introduced the concept of GCBR.

I'm going to try and delve very deep into that concept, to try to understand what is

it about certain pathogens that allows them to cause a GCBR?

And I think the theme of this conference is to be curious, and that's really what motivated

this project, was to be very curious about what goes on there.

I have a picture of my blog there, Tracking Zebra, if you're interested in infectious

disease, I do write a lot about that, and that's my Twitter handle.

The aim of this project was really to develop a whole new framework around the traits of

naturally occurring pandemic pathogens that could constitute a GCBR in order to change

In the past, I'm going to talk about this a little bit later, we've really focused on

list based approaches, that are largely derived from the former Soviet Union's biological

There hadn't been a lot of fresh thinking.

I think that's what we tried to do in this project.

So a couple of basic definitions, just because I don't know if everybody has a biological

Pandemics are infectious disease outbreaks that occur over a wide area and affect a large

It doesn't necessarily have to be severe; 2009 H1N1 was a mild pandemic, but it was

An epidemic is an infectious disease outbreak that occurs over a large number of individuals

So, the SARS outbreak in 2003 would be an epidemic.

An endemic is something that occurs regularly within a population.

For example, the common cold is endemic in the human population.

What we're talking about are specific types of pandemics that are very severe for the

I'm not going to spend much time on this definition because Crystal really went into some great

detail, but what I'm going to do is really expand on what is it about those biological

What types of biological agents can cause GCBRs?

Everybody is very focused on viruses, some people are focused on bacteria, some people

on other things, that's what I'm trying to understand is what traits does a biological

agent have to have in order to be able to cause something this severe, to cause this

massive catastrophic loss of life, disruption of society, that type of analysis.

I just want to draw a distinction, because what I'm talking about here are pathogens

of pandemic potential, versus what's this distinction that was made in Mike Osterholm's

recent book about pathogens of critical regional importance.

When you have an outbreak like Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, that doesn't mean...

just because it's not a GCBR doesn't mean it's not important or that it's not going

to be very disruptive to people's lives and to societies and to governments.

But what we're talking about in the GCBR is something that's going to be global, like

Something that's a lot different in scale than even Middle East Respiratory Syndrome

There's lots of pathogens of critical regional importance.

Even the Ebola outbreak in 2014 in West Africa falls under this type of criteria, versus

The specific aim with this project was really to, like I said, move away from this list-based

People had really just taken the Soviet Union Biological Weapons program and added a couple

things here and there, but really hadn't thought much about why were these things on there?

Challenge the assumptions that put them on there, and really try to understand what was

What was it that makes pandemic flu so scary?

We really try to go into an inductive manner, trying to make a whole new paradigm, looking

We tried to do this by being totally microbignostic.

What I say microbignostic, that means we didn't go into this project saying, "This has to

It could be a parasite, a protozoa, it could be a prion.

So that was something that was totally new.

We really wanted to challenge thinking and then take this paradigm, and hopefully use

it to move forward when we think about preparedness and try and think of new infectious disease

outbreaks with this new paradigm in mind, to get better at being prepared because we're

constantly surprised, which I'll get to later in the talk.

Thinking about what does it have to have?

Talking to people and doing a lot of literature review, there's a whole bunch of different

things that make up the alchemy of a pandemic pathogen.

I'm going try and explain what this equation means and all of this as best I can.

The first thing you need to do, is you have to have a pathogen that can efficiently transmit

You can have a disease that can be really bad like Tetanus.

That doesn't transmit between humans, so it can't be a pandemic pathogen.

When you're talking about a pandemic pathogen, it has to be able to get from people to people,

It doesn't have to be really, really horrible like a 90% fatality rate or 100% like rabies.

It has to be something that's kind of in a sweet spot that it allows enough death to

occur that it causes disruption in the society.

Remember that the 1918 Influenza pandemic, which killed 50 to 100 million people, only

But because it was so widespread, it led to disruption.

I have bolded this because in multiple modeling studies, and in experience, and Crystal alluded

to this earlier when she talked about smallpox, if a disease is contagious during the incubation

period, when you're not sick, it's very, very hard to control.

That's why the H1N1 pandemic had spread everywhere before anybody even knew about it because

people were contagious one day before symptoms.

If a disease is contagious in that period, it becomes very, very difficult for public

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パンデミック病原体 (Pandemic Pathogens)

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