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- [Julian] These agreements have been reached before
after long and painful negotiations
and they've fallen apart before.
So, the first expectation should be nothing will change
because in the past nothing has changed.
If, for some reason, they do reach some sort of
stable peace agreement, then I think we'll see
some reduction of the military assets on both sides.
You need some pullback of the troops from the border.
The other big thing we'll see is,
and this could be, you know, the real change,
is a much more back and forth, open travel between North Korea and South Korea.
Already there are limited abilities for families
in the South to visit families in the North,
but what will be really dramatic is if
anyone in the North can visit the South, which doesn't happen in a legal sense right now.
What seem kind of minor things,
allowing people to visit each other,
would be a really dramatic change
and would change the whole dynamic of the Korean peninsula.
The summit highlights that this is mainly
a North Korean-South Korean thing,
but Korea has always had outsiders involved
in their internal politics and that's not different here.
And so, China and the United States
both have their own interests.
The United States' interest I think is pretty clear.
United States wants denuclearization,
they want North Korea to give up
their nuclear weapons completely,
dismantle them and so that they can't restart it again.
China also wants denuclearization,
so in theory everyone wants the same thing.
But China also does not want to see North Korea
become too far under the influence of
South Korea or the United States because
North Korea is a traditional ally of China,
and also it's a buffer state between South Korea and the United States.
But other than that, China does actually want
North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons as well.
In a sense, everyone sort of has the same goal.
It's just China doesn't have the same urgency
as the United States does because
North Korea is not threatening China,
it's threatening South Korea and the United States.
When we talk about changing the dynamic on
the Korean peninsula so that South Korea, North Korea
are more interconnected and become closer to each other,
there I think China doesn't fully support
complete reconciliation.
They're happy to have reduction of tensions
but they're not happy to have North Korea
become too close to the other countries.
It seems crazy to talk about,
given where we were last year,
where we were worried about President Trump
starting a nuclear war with North Korea.
But I think that it's true that if somehow,
North Korea was normalized in the sense that,
say they gave up their nuclear weapons
in a verifiable way so that the U.S. was satisfied,
and they reached a peace arrangement
where they normalize relations with South Korea,
those two steps would be a massive change in international relations,
changing the dynamic of northeast Asia.
That's worthy of a Nobel Peace Prize.
Then the only question is who deserves the credit
and if it works out, it'll be everyone.
It'll be China, it'll be United States,
it'll be North Korea and South Korea most of all.
And it would be remarkable if it did.
But history tells us that it won't happen.



北朝鮮と韓国の平和条約 次はどうなる? (North And South Korea Peace Treaty: What Happens Next)

300 タグ追加 保存
HsiangLanLee 2018 年 5 月 3 日 に公開    Yukiko 翻訳    Yukiko チェック
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