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  • Elon Musk thinks it's almost certain that we are living in a computer simulation.

  • "There's a one in billions chance that this is base reality."

  • He says that humans are basically some advanced version of The Sims.

  • Yes, that idea sounds pretty absurd.

  • But we shouldn't just write this off. People used to think the solar system worked like this. But almost 2000 years before Galileo proved it didn't,

  • Aristarchus of Samos posited the exact same, crazy idea. Reality is probably not as it seems.

  • Musk is echoing a paper on this theory by philosopher Nick Bostrom. His argument goes like this...

  • “40 years ago we had Pong, like two rectangles and a dot.”

  • 30 years after Pong, we got The Sims.

  • Now 40 years later, we have photorealistic 3D simulations with millions of people playing simultaneously and it's getting better every year.”

  • So let's go about 10,000 years into the future

  • It's possible that when we get there, civilization will be entirely gone because there is a ceiling to our advancement.

  • Maybe it's because of global warmingor self-replicating robots.

  • “...if civilization stops advancing, that may be due to some calamitous event that erases civilization.”

  • But another possibility is that if we keep advancingand assuming everything in the physical world CAN be simulated

  • eventually, we'll simulate ourselves.

  • Every synapse in entire human brain, for everyone on earth.

  • Getting enough computing power to run billions of ancestor simulations could be a problem.

  • But Bostrom thinks we'd send tiny, self-replicating robots to other planets, which would turn the planet into a huge computer.

  • And some of the simulations would start making their own simulations.

  • In this scenario, there are billions of universes that are indistinguishable from our own.

  • That means, chances are, we are in one of the simulated universes.

  • And given the other possibilitywhich is human civilization has an inevitable ceilingMusk thinks we better HOPE that we're in a simulation.

  • Either we're going to create simulations that are indistinguishable from reality, or civilization will to cease to exist. Those are the two options.”

  • There is one othermaybe future humans just don't want to run ancestor simulations.

  • Maybe they think it's unethical, because there is a tremendous amount of suffering in the world. And that suffering would still feel real to simulated humans.

  • Or maybe they have other priorities.

  • So to recap, there are three possibilities. 1. Humans go extinct before we're able to run a simulation this big.

  • 2. Humans don't run simulations because it's wrong or boring.

  • Number three, we are living in a simulation.

  • Elon Musk thinks that there's only a tiny chance we are in scenario 1 or 2 –

  • The philosopher Nick Bostrom thinks it's more like a 20% chance that we're in a simulation.

  • But if you're not into futuristic predictions, Bostrom thinks the argument also provides other rewards.

  • He says, “It suggests naturalistic analogies to certain traditional religious conceptions.”

  • In other words, if we're living in a simulation, there is a higher-level beingbut it's some version of us!

  • This leads to a rabbit hole of conversations, which is why Elon Musk has rules about when he can talk about this.

  • It got to the point where every conversation was the A.I.-slash-simulation conversation and

  • and my brother and I finally agreed we would ban such conversations if we were ever in a hot tub.”

Elon Musk thinks it's almost certain that we are living in a computer simulation.


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エロン・ムスクが我々がシミュレーションの中で生きていると言う理由 (Why Elon Musk says we're living in a simulation)

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    percycms に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日