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  • 18 minutes is an absolutely brutal time limit,

    翻訳: Tairo Moriyama 校正: Lily Yichen Shi

  • so I'm going to dive straight in, right at the point


  • where I get this thing to work.

    率直に ポイントを絞ってお話しします

  • Here we go. I'm going to talk about five different things.


  • I'm going to talk about why defeating aging is desirable.

    ご覧下さい 私が伝えたいポイントは

  • I'm going to talk about why we have to get our shit together,

    5つです まず なぜ老化を阻止すべきか

  • and actually talk about this a bit more than we do.

    なぜ 老化阻止を上手に進めねばならないのか

  • I'm going to talk about feasibility as well, of course.

    今より積極的な行動が必要になる その理由も

  • I'm going to talk about why we are so fatalistic

    次に 老化を阻止できる可能生についてお話します

  • about doing anything about aging.

    また「老化」について 我々はなぜか

  • And then I'm going spend perhaps the second half of the talk


  • talking about, you know, how we might actually be able to prove that fatalism is wrong,

    その問題点について 全体の半分を割いてお話します

  • namely, by actually doing something about it.

    運命論的な見方が いかにバカげているか 実際に

  • I'm going to do that in two steps.


  • The first one I'm going to talk about is


  • how to get from a relatively modest amount of life extension --

    最初にお話しするのは まず

  • which I'm going to define as 30 years, applied to people

    ささやかな寿命延長について まずは これをいかに実現するか

  • who are already in middle-age when you start --

    仮に延長できる寿命が30年だとして 適用できるのは

  • to a point which can genuinely be called defeating aging.


  • Namely, essentially an elimination of the relationship between

    まさに 老化を阻止できる方々です

  • how old you are and how likely you are to die in the next year --

    本質的に 切り離そうとする試みです

  • or indeed, to get sick in the first place.


  • And of course, the last thing I'm going to talk about

    あるいは より本質的に年齢と病気との関係を

  • is how to reach that intermediate step,

    そしてもちろん 前半の最後にお話するのは

  • that point of maybe 30 years life extension.

    30年 寿命を延ばすための

  • So I'm going to start with why we should.


  • Now, I want to ask a question.

    では始めましょう 「なぜ老化を阻止すべきか」

  • Hands up: anyone in the audience who is in favor of malaria?

    まず 皆さんにお尋ねしたいのですが

  • That was easy. OK.

    手を挙げて 誰かマラリアが好きな人?

  • OK. Hands up: anyone in the audience

    ああ 良かった ありがとう

  • who's not sure whether malaria is a good thing or a bad thing?

    また手を挙げて この中で

  • OK. So we all think malaria is a bad thing.

    マラリアが良い事か悪い事か わからない人は?

  • That's very good news, because I thought that was what the answer would be.

    全員 マラリアが悪いものだと考えている

  • Now the thing is, I would like to put it to you

    よかった それこそ 私の答えです

  • that the main reason why we think that malaria is a bad thing


  • is because of a characteristic of malaria that it shares with aging.

    マラリアを悪いものだと思う その理由

  • And here is that characteristic.


  • The only real difference is that aging kills considerably more people than malaria does.

    老化の特徴なんですよ ただ一つ 違うのは

  • Now, I like in an audience, in Britain especially,


  • to talk about the comparison with foxhunting,

    今日は特別に イギリスの方向けに

  • which is something that was banned after a long struggle,


  • by the government not very many months ago.

    キツネ刈りは議論の末 禁止されました

  • I mean, I know I'm with a sympathetic audience here,

    政府の手でね さほど昔の話じゃない

  • but, as we know, a lot of people are not entirely persuaded by this logic.

    今日 ここに居る皆さんは共感してくれるでしょうが

  • And this is actually a rather good comparison, it seems to me.


  • You know, a lot of people said, "Well, you know,

    これは わかりやすい比較だと思います

  • city boys have no business telling us rural types what to do with our time.


  • It's a traditional part of the way of life,


  • and we should be allowed to carry on doing it.

    地方にとっては 生活の一部であり伝統だ

  • It's ecologically sound; it stops the population explosion of foxes."


  • But ultimately, the government prevailed in the end,

    環境保護的に聞こえるし キツネの繁殖も防いでる

  • because the majority of the British public,

    しかし 最終的には政府によって潰されました

  • and certainly the majority of members of Parliament,


  • came to the conclusion that it was really something


  • that should not be tolerated in a civilized society.


  • And I think that human aging shares

    洗練された社会では受け入れられない と

  • all of these characteristics in spades.

    私から見れば 老化とこの問題は

  • What part of this do people not understand?


  • It's not just about life, of course --

    では 何が理解を妨げているのか?

  • (Laughter) --

    もちろん 生活と関係ないからですよ

  • it's about healthy life, you know --


  • getting frail and miserable and dependent is no fun,

    ただ 健康的な生活という意味で言えば

  • whether or not dying may be fun.

    衰え みじめで 孤独では楽しくないですよね

  • So really, this is how I would like to describe it.


  • It's a global trance.

    だから 本当の所こう言ってやりたい

  • These are the sorts of unbelievable excuses


  • that people give for aging.


  • And, I mean, OK, I'm not actually saying

    実に 信じがたいものもありますが

  • that these excuses are completely valueless.

    私が言いたいのは それらの言い訳が

  • There are some good points to be made here,


  • things that we ought to be thinking about, forward planning


  • so that nothing goes too -- well, so that we minimize

    事前に 色々と考えているわけです

  • the turbulence when we actually figure out how to fix aging.

    地獄行きにならないため 混乱を最小限に食いとめるため

  • But these are completely crazy, when you actually

    実際 老化防止法が理解できた時に備えてね

  • remember your sense of proportion.

    しかし これはやはり変なんですよ

  • You know, these are arguments; these are things that


  • would be legitimate to be concerned about.

    いいですか? これは問題提起であり

  • But the question is, are they so dangerous --


  • these risks of doing something about aging --

    この問題提起は そんなに危険ですか?

  • that they outweigh the downside of doing the opposite,


  • namely, leaving aging as it is?

    その逆 すなわち老化に対処しないことのリスクを

  • Are these so bad that they outweigh

    上回ってしまう それは危険でしょうか?

  • condemning 100,000 people a day to an unnecessarily early death?

    そうなることで かえってマズいのは

  • You know, if you haven't got an argument that's that strong,

    1日10万人が猛スピードで死ぬという状況を 克服してしまうからですか

  • then just don't waste my time, is what I say.


  • (Laughter)


  • Now, there is one argument


  • that some people do think really is that strong, and here it is.

    現在 議論はされていますが

  • People worry about overpopulation; they say,


  • "Well, if we fix aging, no one's going to die to speak of,

    皆さん人口増加問題を懸念しつつ こう仰る

  • or at least the death toll is going to be much lower,

    「老化を止めたりしたら 誰も死ななくなるし

  • only from crossing St. Giles carelessly.

    少なくとも 死者は激減する

  • And therefore, we're not going to be able to have many kids,


  • and kids are really important to most people."


  • And that's true.


  • And you know, a lot of people try to fudge this question,

    ええ そう その通りです

  • and give answers like this.


  • I don't agree with those answers. I think they basically don't work.


  • I think it's true, that we will face a dilemma in this respect.

    同意できません 質問の答えになってない

  • We will have to decide whether to have a low birth rate,


  • or a high death rate.

    選ばなければならない 低い出生率か

  • A high death rate will, of course, arise from simply rejecting these therapies,

    高い死亡率 そのどちらかを

  • in favor of carrying on having a lot of kids.

    高い死亡率は これらの老化治療を拒絶することで高まるでしょう

  • And, I say that that's fine --

    その場合は引き続き 多く子供を持つことが奨励されます

  • the future of humanity is entitled to make that choice.

    そして 明らかなのは

  • What's not fine is for us to make that choice on behalf of the future.

    人類の未来が この選択にかかっているという事です

  • If we vacillate, hesitate,


  • and do not actually develop these therapies,

    とまどったり 迷ったり

  • then we are condemning a whole cohort of people --


  • who would have been young enough and healthy enough


  • to benefit from those therapies, but will not be,


  • because we haven't developed them as quickly as we could --

    健康的な人々だったとしても 救えない

  • we'll be denying those people an indefinite life span,


  • and I consider that that is immoral.


  • That's my answer to the overpopulation question.


  • Right. So the next thing is,

    これが 人口増加問題に対する私の答えです

  • now why should we get a little bit more active on this?

    では 次にいきましょう

  • And the fundamental answer is that

    なぜ 老化問題にもっと積極的になるべきか?

  • the pro-aging trance is not as dumb as it looks.

    なぜなら 侮ってはならないからです

  • It's actually a sensible way of coping with the inevitability of aging.


  • Aging is ghastly, but it's inevitable, so, you know,

    積極性こそ 避けがたい老化に対処する賢明な道なのです

  • we've got to find some way to put it out of our minds,

    老化はいやだ でも老化は避けられない だからこそ

  • and it's rational to do anything that we might want to do, to do that.


  • Like, for example, making up these ridiculous reasons

    我々がやろうとしている方法は 極めて合理的です

  • why aging is actually a good thing after all.

    例えば バカげた理由をこさえて

  • But of course, that only works when we have both of these components.

    老化は良いことだ という意見もありますが

  • And as soon as the inevitability bit becomes a little bit unclear --

    しかし そういった事も既に織り込み済みです

  • and we might be in range of doing something about aging --

    すぐには避けがたく 不透明なままだとしたら

  • this becomes part of the problem.

    老化に対して 出来る範囲のことをするしかない

  • This pro-aging trance is what stops us from agitating about these things.

    これも 問題の一部分なのです

  • And that's why we have to really talk about this a lot --

    老化への誤った妄想は 問題に対処する力を奪います

  • evangelize, I will go so far as to say, quite a lot --


  • in order to get people's attention, and make people realize

    ですから わざとこういった言い方をしてます

  • that they are in a trance in this regard.

    人々の注意をひき 気が付いてもらうため

  • So that's all I'm going to say about that.

    彼らは 未だ妄想の中にいるのだと

  • I'm now going to talk about feasibility.

    それが 私がお伝えしたい事です

  • And the fundamental reason, I think, why we feel that aging is inevitable

    私は今 可能性について話をしているのです

  • is summed up in a definition of aging that I'm giving here.

    なぜ 老いは避けられないと考えるのか?

  • A very simple definition.


  • Aging is a side effect of being alive in the first place,


  • which is to say, metabolism.

    老化は この世に生を受けことの副産物

  • This is not a completely tautological statement;

    別名 メタボリズムとも言いますが

  • it's a reasonable statement.


  • Aging is basically a process that happens to inanimate objects like cars,

    まあ 便利な説明ではあります

  • and it also happens to us,

    老化は 無生物にも訪れます 例えば車

  • despite the fact that we have a lot of clever self-repair mechanisms,

    そして 我々のような生物にも

  • because those self-repair mechanisms are not perfect.


  • So basically, metabolism, which is defined as


  • basically everything that keeps us alive from one day to the next,

    基本的に 新陳代謝の定義は

  • has side effects.


  • Those side effects accumulate and eventually cause pathology.


  • That's a fine definition. So we can put it this way:

    副産物は蓄積し ついに病気を引き起こす

  • we can say that, you know, we have this chain of events.

    明確な定義です だから それを取り除く

  • And there are really two games in town,


  • according to most people, with regard to postponing aging.

    今 巷では2つ戦いが繰り広げられています

  • They're what I'm calling here the "gerontology approach" and the "geriatrics approach."


  • The geriatrician will intervene late in the day,


  • when pathology is becoming evident,

    老年医学では 介入が遅れてしまうでしょう

  • and the geriatrician will try and hold back the sands of time,


  • and stop the accumulation of side effects

    老年医学者はまるで 砂時計を逆さまにして

  • from causing the pathology quite so soon.


  • Of course, it's a very short-term-ist strategy; it's a losing battle,


  • because the things that are causing the pathology

    ただ これは極めて短期的な手法です

  • are becoming more abundant as time goes on.

    なぜなら 病気の原因となるものは

  • The gerontology approach looks much more promising on the surface,

    時間と共に どんどん増えていくからです

  • because, you know, prevention is better than cure.


  • But unfortunately the thing is that we don't understand metabolism very well.

    なぜなら常に 予防は治療に勝るからです

  • In fact, we have a pitifully poor understanding of how organisms work --

    しかし残念ながら この手法では代謝に関する理解が限られます

  • even cells we're not really too good on yet.

    事実 我々は組織の働きについて理解に乏しいのです

  • We've discovered things like, for example,

    まして 細胞の機能不全については全く解明できてない

  • RNA interference only a few years ago,

    例えば 数年前に我々が発見した

  • and this is a really fundamental component of how cells work.


  • Basically, gerontology is a fine approach in the end,

    細胞の活動において 非常に重要なものです

  • but it is not an approach whose time has come

    老年学は 基本的には良いアプローチなのですが

  • when we're talking about intervention.

    老化に介入する しないの議論となると

  • So then, what do we do about that?


  • I mean, that's a fine logic, that sounds pretty convincing,

    では一体 どうしたらいいのでしょうか?

  • pretty ironclad, doesn't it?

    ロジックは明確 説得力もある

  • But it isn't.


  • Before I tell you why it isn't, I'm going to go a little bit

    いや そんな事はありえません

  • into what I'm calling step two.

    その理由をお話する前に 少し横道に逸れますが

  • Just suppose, as I said, that we do acquire --


  • let's say we do it today for the sake of argument --

    すでに 我々は手に入れているんです

  • the ability to confer 30 extra years of healthy life


  • on people who are already in middle age, let's say 55.

    今日はその議論のために 申し上げます

  • I'm going to call that "robust human rejuvenation." OK.

    中年の方 55歳前後の方が対象です

  • What would that actually mean


  • for how long people of various ages today --

    これが一体 何を意味しているのか?

  • or equivalently, of various ages at the time that these therapies arrive --

    様々な年齢の人々にとって どんな意味が?

  • would actually live?

    この老化治療法が行き着く先には 何がある?

  • In order to answer that question -- you might think it's simple,

    実際 本当に生きられるのか?

  • but it's not simple.


  • We can't just say, "Well, if they're young enough to benefit from these therapies,

    ことは そう単純ではありません

  • then they'll live 30 years longer."


  • That's the wrong answer.


  • And the reason it's the wrong answer is because of progress.

    そんな回答は イマイチですよ

  • There are two sorts of technological progress really,


  • for this purpose.


  • There are fundamental, major breakthroughs,


  • and there are incremental refinements of those breakthroughs.


  • Now, they differ a great deal

    ブレイクスルーは 徐々に増加してる

  • in terms of the predictability of time frames.

    今はまだ 時間間隔の視点からみて

  • Fundamental breakthroughs:


  • very hard to predict how long it's going to take


  • to make a fundamental breakthrough.


  • It was a very long time ago that we decided that flying would be fun,


  • and it took us until 1903 to actually work out how to do it.

    遥か昔 人類は飛ぶことの楽しみを見いだし

  • But after that, things were pretty steady and pretty uniform.


  • I think this is a reasonable sequence of events that happened

    しかしその後 我々はやや固定観念的になってしまった

  • in the progression of the technology of powered flight.


  • We can think, really, that each one is sort of


  • beyond the imagination of the inventor of the previous one, if you like.


  • The incremental advances have added up to something


  • which is not incremental anymore.

    進歩の増加は 増加的ではない何かに

  • This is the sort of thing you see after a fundamental breakthrough.


  • And you see it in all sorts of technologies.


  • Computers: you can look at a more or less parallel time line,

    こういった現象が あらゆる技術分野に見受けられます

  • happening of course a bit later.

    コンピューターの進歩も 多かれ少なかれそういった現象が

  • You can look at medical care. I mean, hygiene, vaccines, antibiotics --


  • you know, the same sort of time frame.

    メディカルケアについては 衛生からワクチン 抗生物質へ

  • So I think that actually step two, that I called a step a moment ago,

    ご覧のように 同じ時間間隔です

  • isn't a step at all.

    ですから 私がステップ2だと考えて そう呼んでいたものが

  • That in fact, the people who are young enough

    過去となり ステップではなくなってしまう

  • to benefit from these first therapies

    実際 老化治療法から恩恵を受けるほど

  • that give this moderate amount of life extension,


  • even though those people are already middle-aged when the therapies arrive,


  • will be at some sort of cusp.

    治療を受けることになる 既に中年の方々でも

  • They will mostly survive long enough to receive improved treatments


  • that will give them a further 30 or maybe 50 years.


  • In other words, they will be staying ahead of the game.

    そのことで 30年から50年ほど寿命が延びるでしょう

  • The therapies will be improving faster than


  • the remaining imperfections in the therapies are catching up with us.

    この治療法がより早く発展し 我々の寿命より早く

  • This is a very important point for me to get across.

    不完全な部分を克服できるか というゲーム

  • Because, you know, most people, when they hear

    これは ご理解を頂く上で非常に重要です

  • that I predict that a lot of people alive today are going to live to 1,000 or more,


  • they think that I'm saying that we're going to invent therapies in the next few decades


  • that are so thoroughly eliminating aging


  • that those therapies will let us live to 1,000 or more.


  • I'm not saying that at all.