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  • It looks like the Trump trade is back on

  • because of the tax proposal that is we're expect to see on Monday

  • which should lay out the specification for corporate tax cut.

  • Trump has been talking about a Federal corporate tax cut

  • from 35% to 15% since 2015.

  • JP Morgan head of equity strategy says

  • "As long as headlines continue to indicate

  • political traction, we believe investors are likely to

  • start pricing in higher probability of tax reform.

  • And if you look at the Goldman Sachs basket

  • of stocks that most likely to benefit from the tax cut,

  • you'll see that they outperform the boarder market

  • right when Trump was elected and then started to correct.

  • But for over the last few weeks, these stocks have started to

  • outperform again on optimism for a tax cut.

  • So how much of the boost could this gives stocks?

  • According to JP Morgan, cutting the tax rate from 35% to 25%

  • could increase S&P 500 earnings by 11 dollars per share,

  • bringing it up to 143 per share,

  • which would increase index at 150 points at the current multiple.

  • Jim Febeo, senior vice president of government relations

  • for Fidelity Investment points out that before tax reform

  • can advance, Congress needs to pass

  • a budget for 2018 to provide

  • the protected vehicle known as budget reconciliation,

  • which would allow tax reform to pass the Senate with only 51 votes.

  • Which means that political pressure to get tax reform

  • could actually helps us agree on a budget.

  • But, as Fidelity Investment's Jurrien Timmer points out,

  • most long-term investors shouldn't react to short-term events.

  • And that's today's bottom line.

  • As a Chicago Booth alum, I consider myself

  • very lucky to have had the opportunity

  • to interview Luigi Zingales of Chicago Booth

  • about his new research which challenges some of

  • Milton Freedman's assumptions about maximizing

  • shareholder value.

It looks like the Trump trade is back on

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トレーダーはトランプ氏の減税計画に向けて準備を進めている (Traders are gearing up for Trump's tax cut plan)

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    jenny に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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