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It looks like the Trump trade is back on
because of the tax proposal that is we're expect to see on Monday
which should lay out the specification for corporate tax cut.
Trump has been talking about a Federal corporate tax cut
from 35% to 15% since 2015.
JP Morgan head of equity strategy says
"As long as headlines continue to indicate
political traction, we believe investors are likely to
start pricing in higher probability of tax reform.
And if you look at the Goldman Sachs basket
of stocks that most likely to benefit from the tax cut,
you'll see that they outperform the boarder market
right when Trump was elected and then started to correct.
But for over the last few weeks, these stocks have started to
outperform again on optimism for a tax cut.
So how much of the boost could this gives stocks?
According to JP Morgan, cutting the tax rate from 35% to 25%
could increase S&P 500 earnings by 11 dollars per share,
bringing it up to 143 per share,
which would increase index at 150 points at the current multiple.
Jim Febeo, senior vice president of government relations
for Fidelity Investment points out that before tax reform
can advance, Congress needs to pass
a budget for 2018 to provide
the protected vehicle known as budget reconciliation,
which would allow tax reform to pass the Senate with only 51 votes.
Which means that political pressure to get tax reform
could actually helps us agree on a budget.
But, as Fidelity Investment's Jurrien Timmer points out,
most long-term investors shouldn't react to short-term events.
And that's today's bottom line.
As a Chicago Booth alum, I consider myself
very lucky to have had the opportunity
to interview Luigi Zingales of Chicago Booth
about his new research which challenges some of
Milton Freedman's assumptions about maximizing
shareholder value.